Dime’s 2011-12 NBA Preview: The Pacific Division

Everyone wants to talk about super teams. Of course, the Heat, Knicks, Clippers, Celtics and all the rest of ’em capture the imagination of the NBA fan base. There’s nothing quite like feeling the anticipation and excitement in the air when you see that news hit telling you Chris Paul has finally been traded and he’s going to the Clippers. What immediately follows is typically more invigorating than what eventually happens. The promise of what could be is almost always better than what is. Even here at Dime, we find ourselves talking about one third of the NBA about 80 percent of the time. That doesn’t mean we don’t care about everyone else.

In the final week before the regular season tips off for real this Sunday on Christmas, we’ll break down each division, team by team in an effort to give you an overall look at what to expect in what’s sure to be a relentlessly exciting season.

We started things off earlier this week by getting our East Coast bias on and diving into the Atlantic on Monday, the Central Division on Tuesday and the Southeast Division yesterday before getting into the West. Now, we hit the Pacific Division where two L.A. teams will be at each other’s throats this season.

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5. Sacramento Kings
The New Guys That Matter: Jimmer Fredette, John Salmons, Travis Outlaw
Projected Starting Five: Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, Donte Greene, J.J. Hickson, DeMarcus Cousins

On paper alone, the Kings look like one of those killer rec league teams. In warm-ups, they are phenomenal, have all this individual talent and run up the score on every bad team in the league because no one can defend them. Yet all it actually takes to slow them down is a solid team that knows how to play and forces them into doing things they don’t want to. In the NBA, the Kings will get this treatment almost every night this season.

Evans is healthy again to get back to his 20/5/5 ways, and I think he’s in for a major bounceback season. From what I’ve seen of him in the offseason and then in the preseason, he’ll be in the lane probably more often than Sacramento’s bigs. Cousins and Hickson both seem intent on getting their KG midrange game on, and neither one passes all that often either. This seems to be a common theme in Sacramento: He who passes must not be good. Or at least, I’d bet that’s the ideology most of these guys live by. Even when you go deeper into the roster – Fredette, Thornton, Salmons, Outlaw – passing is less of a reality than high gas prices. When your best true playmaker – outside of Evans, who seems to make a lot of plays because he’s involved in every single one – could be Francisco Garcia, there’s a serious problem.

We’ve seen this recipe before: talented lottery team gives everyone hope solely because they’re fun to watch. But even in this country’s worst rec leagues, teams like this rarely pan out.

BEST CASE: They extend the game clock to give everyone enough shots, Evans reclaims his place as a future All-Star and Sacramento scores 120 every night to at least make themselves enjoyable to watch.
WORST CASE: The fun in them is sucked away by too many arguments, locker room disagreements and too many babyish moves by DMC.

4. Golden State Warriors
The New Guys That Matter: Kwame Brown, Klay Thompson
Projected Starting Five: Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, Dorell Wright, David Lee, Andris Biedrins

With their heads already spinning because of a new emphasis on this radical idea called “defense,” no one is happy to be dealing with these sexual harassment charges against Ellis. Also, it’s never a good thing to tout up “defense” as this grand new fad and then go out and recruit *disrespectful Stephen A. voice* Kwam-ay Broown. Never a good thing. At the very least, this is still a hot ticket for League Pass because of Curry, Ellis and to a degree Dorell Wright (one of the coolest people in the league). And for some reason, everyone always has a career night against Golden State. Maybe it’s the fans who always create a great game (Seriously, any Friday night, 10:30 ET Warriors game is obscenely fun to watch)? I still don’t get that one.

It took me long enough but I’ve grown to despise Biedrins. He’s been a fantasy ticket for me going on three years; every season believing this would be the one he repeats his 2008-09 year (12 points, 11 rebounds, 1.6 blocks a night). But that train has passed. He’s barely playable now.

I may actually learn to miss Mark Jackson and his heinous game calls. It’ll be especially infuriating to see him in Golden State attempting to tame one of the wackiest, and looniest, teams in recent memory. A tamed squirrel is never as cool as a wild one.

BEST CASE: The Warriors turn up the speed even more and wear down veteran teams with one of the best homecourt advantages in the league. Curry takes the step he was supposed to last year, and Jackson gets everyone to buy in enough to win barely 30 games.
WORST CASE: Someone – Ellis anyone? – gets traded for virtually nothing just to see him and his situation with the law go away. Meant to free up room for everyone else to flourish, it instead exposes the Warriors as a talent-less team stuck in-between two different philosophies.

3. Phoenix Suns
The New Guys That Matter: Shannon Brown, Markieff Moris, Sebastian Telfair
Projected Starting Five: Steve Nash, Jared Dudley, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, Marcin Gortat

I feel so bad for Steve Nash and Grant Hill. Actually, not so much Hill. He should’ve left this summer when he had the chance. Maybe he just felt bad for Nash, who would’ve seemed like a square peg in a group of circles without him. Either way, this team is not going to be very good.

The one saving grace they do have is that frontline. It’s not going to make anyone’s list of the best in the game, but it’s better than expected in the desert. Marcin Gortat, to me, is the most underrated center in the league. No one has a clue he averaged 13 points, over nine rebounds and 1.3 blocks a night in Phoenix, and this is even after he struggled in his first few weeks catching Nash’s passes. Frye isn’t the greatest player, but he could be the greatest fit here. And then off the bench, they have two energy guys – legit big men too – the rookie Morris, and the crazy twin, Robin Lopez.

Truly, I don’t think they have any shot at the playoffs. Not even Jared Dudley has enough optimism to envision that. Take away Nash and this is probably the worst team in the league. Someone come and save him before it’s too late.

BEST CASE: Nash continues Benjamin Button-ing the entire league and Phoenix feasts on the truly bad teams in the Western Conference. Their big men go harder than anyone thought possible and Shannon Brown develops a game outside of dunking to push the Suns to the brink of the playoffs.
WORST CASE: Nash decides early on he won’t be sticking around next summer as it all crumbles around him: Frye’s confidence, Hill’s ankles and the rookie’s optimism.

2. Los Angeles Lakers
The New Guys That Matter: Josh McRoberts, Jason Kapono, Andrew Goudelock
Projected Starting Five: Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Devin Ebanks, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum

I’m surprised they didn’t find metal when they went in and discovered Kobe’s wrist was screwed up. If he does prove to be human this year and not some Terminator creation, it’s going to be a quick and easy death in Los Angeles. If Kobe can’t go early, and with Bynum already sitting out the first five games – as we wrote in Smack – the Lakers could bury themselves very early and then have to struggle to get a respectable seed in the playoffs. It seems criminal to say they could be on the road to start the playoffs. But it seems more likely than perhaps even a return to prominence for Dexter. Gasol has lost a step, Bynum still only dominates for stretches at a time and Kobe still thinks he can do anything.

The problem for the Lakers isn’t even up top. It’s everywhere else. Victoria’s Secret models, their facial features are nearly perfect, but everything else is thin, sickly and in dire need of some meat on it to bring out it’s true features (One of the greatest crimes in human history was the day they convinced Marisa Miller to start losing weight to become a worldwide supermodel. Back in the day when she had a lil’ something to her, she was perfect.). Four through 12, is there a team in the whole league with a worse lineup? I’ll have to think about that one. Note: I posed this question to Twitter and here were some of the responses: Minnesota (probably), Detroit (nah), New Jersey (right there) and Cleveland (right there).

Laker fans are proving loyalty trumps realism right now, and some are still holding out hope this will be the best team in L.A. this season. That’s more than likely not happening, especially when you factor in the shortened season, the depth issues and the injuries/suspensions. Can a brother get a Dwight Howard?

BEST CASE: Kobe battles through injuries, Bynum finally grows up and Gasol finds one more push in him to stay a top 10 player. The Lakers’ depth issues are somehow ratified by a crazy trade and/or an out-of-nowhere signing and they nearly get to the Finals again.
WORST CASE: Age and injuries pile on, Metta World Peace continues to get crushed under that weight, and the Lakers are again run out of the gym by Dallas to end their season. Kobe walks off the floor after the first round exit staring at a jubilant Lamar Odom.

1. Los Angeles Clippers
The New Guys That Matter: Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler
Projected Starting Five: Paul, Billups, Butler, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Can they show the Clippers on TNT 66 times this season? That would surely bring all of the fans back. It amazed me watching that Clippers/Lakers game last night. It seemed the whole arena was rocking the red, blue and white. Where did all these Sterling followers come from? But damn, I can’t blame them even if they are bandwagoners. Griffin and Jordan, with CP3 throwing them lobs is like watching Jenna Jameson and Briana Banks in character on repeat for hours at a time. Add in Butler and Mo Williams and you have an offensive juggernaut.

For years, we all wondered what would happen if you put shooters and finishers around Paul. Now, he has two of the three best finishing big men in the league, and two of the better shooters in the league. That’s Paranormal Activity-level scary.

Yet this is still the Clippers, and when they made the deal for CP, they gave away much of their youth. Eric Bledsoe really has no place on this team anymore. It’s unfathomable to think about right now, but gambling on the knees of both Paul and Griffin isn’t a sure thing. The Clippers have no depth upfront and that’ll surely be a problem at some point in the playoffs. Plus, any organization led in the front office by Donald Sterling are on the edge of danger. I can’t stress enough how AWFUL of a track record he has. If the Lakers are Jack Nicholson, the Clippers are Brendan Fraser. And I’m being kind. Add in Vinny Del Negro, who probably is already ceasing huddle instructions to Paul and Billups, and there is definitely potential for disaster.

BEST CASE: On their way to the NBA Finals, the set a record for most highlights by one team in NBA history while becoming the most loveable team in the NBA despite the presence of Donald Sterling and a legion of not-even-ashamed-to-say bandwagoners.
WORST CASE: Sterling does what he does, makes some type of in-season deal and screws up team chemistry. Blake Griffin and Chris Paul’s knees give out and they stumble to a low seed and first round exit.

What do you expect out of this division? Will the Clippers rule L.A.?

Follow Sean on Twitter at @SEANesweeney.

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