The annual poll of NBA general managers was released today and with it come the instant analysis. Dime is no different, but instead of seeing the superlatives, I wanted to offer observations on what may have been overlooked. The biggest winners and surprises of this poll are easy to see if you look closely. Keep reading to see the top 5 things to know about the GM poll.
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5. IT’S NOT A MISTAKE LEBRON JAMES IS RATED THE NO. 3 POWER FORWARD
This category had been Dirk Nowitzki‘s baby until this year, when Kevin Love won it with 30 percent of the vote. Nowitzki fell to 23.3 percent, and LeBron James was third with 16.7 percent. It’s not as curious a selection as you might think for LeBron to be there, even considering he played only a quarter of his minutes at that position last season. It’s actually a wonder he didn’t play there more often considering his output at PF: 37.1 PER, 39.0 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and 8.1 assists per 48 minutes. Those all were better, and substantially so in some categories, than his statistics at SF — 29.1 points, 9.3 boards, 0.9 blocks and 8.0 assists per 48 minutes.
Nowitzki earned this distinction because of how he brought the power forward position away from the block and to all corners of the court on offense. James is a continuation of that trend of gradually transforming what we expect from a four because he blends it with his approach to playing small forward — GMs picked him the best at that position with 73.3 percent of the vote — whereas Love is a (historically excellent) more traditional interpretation as the low-block, high-rebound big man even with his propensity to step out for the three. For Miami’s part, it should put LeBron at the four more often, seeing as how they had a higher winning percentage and double the net points difference between offense and defense over 48 minutes, per 82games.com. The Heat allowed slightly more points with him at PF, but boosted their offense by more than nine points per 48, making its margin of victory more than 16 when he’s playing power forward. LeBron doesn’t play power forward even a majority of the time, but his dalliances there are so powerful he’s deserving as the No. 3 pick.
4. WHY DO GMS PICK KOBE IN A LANDSLIDE?
Kobe Bryant is our pick as the best player since 2000 for a reason. There are few, however, as to why he would still be picked so overwhelmingly as the NBA’s best shooting guard. It’s no secret that the NBA is top-heavy with All-Star caliber point guards now, and that the quality of game-breaking twos hasn’t kept pace — Dwyane Wade, James Harden, Joe Johnson and possibly Monta Ellis come to mind as the only others who could be mentioned in Kobe’s category. That Wade doesn’t get more than 23.3 percent of respect as being the best at his position is surprising, especially now that he’s carved himself a new role in Miami’s backcourt that, if more limited by giving LeBron the bulk of the team’s power, still is extremely dangerous. Kobe is still the best shooting guard in the game, but as he ages what is most surprising is the lock he still holds on the spot. Wade and Harden deserve more of the vote and confidence from GMs.
3. FOR DROPPING JARED SULLINGER LIKE A ROCK, GMS LOVE HIS UPSIDE
Jared Sullinger had one of the worst run-ups to an NBA Draft that I can remember. He was red-flagged by medical officials enough that he fell from a top-10 pick to the 21st selection by Boston. His true position was called into question, as was his aptitude to bang in the post with NBA forwards, along with his fitness. Pretty horrifying job interview, right? For whatever reason Sullinger became a lottery pariah, many GMs now believe he is the best “sleeper” of his class, at 17.2 percent. That’s ahead of Mo Harkless and Andrew Nicholson of Orlando, who each had 13.8 percent. Here’s one reason I believe why he’s been re-evaluated so favorably: What he can offer straight out of the rookie gate is rebounding, something Boston was woeful at last season. The Celtics were 30th, dead last, in rebounds per game last season and third-worst in rebounding differential. They weren’t necessarily awful at keeping opponents off the offensive glass (they were middle of the pack) but most crucially, were dead last at 7.7 offensive boards per game. Sullinger can help immediately there, in addition to filling in where he can elsewhere. He’s shot 56.1 percent from the field, and 84.6 percent on free throws, in preseason games. Few wanted to drafted him, but Boston’s selection makes sense. The GMs recognize that.
2. KEVIN LOVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE GRADED ON A CURVE
Why can’t GMs look at what Minnesota’s power forward is doing from a realistic, or historical, standpoint instead of a fictional one? Love, with 34.5 percent, was ranked the top player to make the most of his limited natural ability, a kind of backhanded compliment that is this poll’s consolation prize. Instead of seeing his record-breaking double-double streak of 2011 and his 14.4 rebounds per game average since 2010, the best of any NBA player in that span, for the achievements they are, GMs seem to compare them to the Love they envisioned coming out of UCLA: soft, a little pudgy, too enthralled with the outside shot. That he’s white isn’t a problem unique to him — the top six players in this category all are white — but it doesn’t help. He’s worked his way out of two doghouses, one each for Kurt Rambis and Mike Krzyzewski, to become stars on their respective teams. On the latter team, Team USA in London, the questions about his value, in particular, were given an answer with the way he defended and shot against much larger opponents. For being supposedly not naturally athletic, the sheer range of his skills, from outlet passing to shooting to rebounding, is especially confounding. Take this entry in the New York Times from February 2011 on his unique stature, and keep in mind he’s only improved since then.
Through Wednesday, Love was leading the league with a rebound percentage of 23.3 percent. That figure, if it holds, would be the 12th-highest rebound percentage in N.B.A. history.
Coupled with that, Love is hitting 43.9 percent of his 3-point field goal attempts, is tied with two other players for 9th best percentage in the league.
Love’s stellar 3-point percentage is not simply a case of his occasionally taking a wide-open shot. He is averaging one 3-point attempt per 11.9 minutes of playing time, not far off Kerr’s career rate of one every 10.1 minutes.
In fact, only one player has led the N.B.A. in rebound percentage while also shooting at least 100 3-pointers: Rodman, in 1991-92. Rodman, though, was not an effective shooter from downtown, converting 31.7 percent of his attempts that season.
The way I see it, the only natural abilities he doesn’t have is the one that allows him to keep a slim physique and the one to banish any pre-draft expectations.
1. CHAUNCEY BILLUPS WAS ONE OF THE BEST OFFSEASON MOVES
The return of Billups to the Clippers isn’t reflected in the category of “what was the most underrated player acquisition?” Andre Iguodala took that, but it even got down to Alexey Shved to Minnesota. Given his clout in every other leadership category in the survey, especially those that the GMs swoon over, he was clearly the most underrated offseason signing in the NBA.
Despite tearing his Achilles last winter, his return to LAC was seen as such a huge move for the Clippers’ psyche, according to GMs in other categories. Billups clearly has huge cachet in the league still from his title in Detroit and his ability to smooth over a rocky situation in Denver when he arrived in the middle of Carmelo’s trade demand saga. Look at the kind of accolades he earned: He’s viewed as the best player to become the best future head coach (he beat Shane Battier, 20.7 to 17.2 percent) and was ranked as having one of the best basketball IQs, the fourth-most popular pick to take the last shot, and as the third-best leader. Billups is not just Mr. Big Shot, he’s Mr. Cure-All, the salve that can bring together a locker room with a combination of veteran savvy and — when he’s healthy — the game to still run a team. Most impressive of those honors is his pick as best leader, in a category that teammate Chris Paul not only won for the second straight season, but increased his take in the voting by more than two percentage points.
What do you think?
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