Some teams tank for the NBA Lottery in their final 25 games. Others coast into the playoffs contently. Only a few can pull off a run this deep into season that can change their playoff fortunes — even get them into the playoffs. These are the 5 teams I believe are most capable of turning their game up a notch in the regular season’s final stretch. (Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com.)
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5. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The Lakers have owned a respectable offense all season, ranked eighth in offensive efficiency. It’s one of the few strengths of this team that’s been even better in its last five-to-10 games. Maybe that’s because the finality of missing the playoffs for only the second time in Kobe Bryant‘s career is setting in. Or, maybe there’s a cosmic motivation spurred by the death of Jerry Buss. This team has more intersecting, confusing elements than a Rubik’s cube, so it’s likely foolhardy to guess why there’s been improvement instead of simply seeing that there has been — and that’s a lot to say for this team.
Dwight Howard and Steve Nash are playing well at the same time (with Nash on the court, Howard’s points decrease but his boards go up and turnovers get cut in half to 2.3 per 36 minutes), with Bryant’s relentless competitive streak still alive. In their last five games the Lakers are averaging five more points per 48 minutes (107.2 to 102.2) by cutting the fat out of their diets. They shoot fewer field goal attempts and three-pointers but make more; reduce turnovers a little; and shoot a lower free-throw percentage (66 percent in the last five games) but get to the line four more times per game, which gives them a chance for more points. It’s a signal that without any more time to declare a new season, the Lakers are owning up to their unpredictable season and realizing an eighth seed is three games away.
4. MILWAUKEE
This is a team built to win now after the trade for J.J. Redick and with Brandon Jennings‘ restricted free agency looming. Will the Bucks match an offer for their point guard? Well, who cares right now? There are more important things to worry about — chiefly missing Miami in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs. That’s as simple as the motivation in Milwaukee is as the team is fairly comfortable in the eighth spot, five games ahead of Toronto.
Larry Sanders’ return from injury has been a difference-maker for interior defense, so now it’s time for the guards to figure out their own games. From the individual motivations behind Jennings, Redick and Monta Ellis could emerge a common good. By tracking down Boston for the No. 7 seed, Jennings can show he’s a leader worth investing in; Redick that he’s worth the $7-to-$10 million per year he’s reportedly seeking this offseason; and Ellis that his skills can work in both star or complementary roles. The large sample size already seen between Ellis and Jennings makes this seem dubious, but nothing motivates like money, and getting out from under the short-term management style of Milwaukee also seems to be a large factor, too.
Is there a sign these motivations are kicking in? Like the Lakers, the Bucks have squeezed more points in their final five games out of fewer shots by getting to the line more and shooting a better percentage. They, too, have decreased turnovers and increased rebounds and assists, and Ellis’ 22 points and nine dimes in a win Tuesday against Dallas is a nice showing.
3. MEMPHIS
The Grizzlies had their chance to pout after Rudy Gay was traded. Now, they’re back to playing good basketball and are 8-2 in their final 10 games, with a seven-game winning streak. Part of why the Grizzlies could make a run to improve their playoff position is psychological, then: After losing Gay they had their chance to vent and now seem to realize that the only thing worse than losing their most dynamic offensive player is missing the playoffs altogether. If this was about the team with the best state of mind entering next season, the Grizzlies might not be this high. But banding together around one another in an “us against the world and/or management” is helping close this season.
Another reason is defensive. The Grizz lost their grit-n-grind with Gay, but have recovered to stay No. 2 in defensive efficiency. Since the All-Star game, Memphis has a top-five defense in opponents shooting percentage in the restricted area and mid-range and is in the league’s top half in defending the corner three. An April 1 game against San Antonio will be key to seeing how prepared the team is for the final two weeks of the season and whether their momentum from how has been sustained or forgotten.
2. SAN ANTONIO
It’s hard to go anywhere but up when a team’s No. 1 in its conference, but San Antonio could solidify its hold as the West’s best team with a tailor-made schedule. Finding how dangerous the Spurs will be is more complicated than simply looking at their home record and projecting into the future. While the Spurs are 22-2 at home and have 17 games remaining in San Antonio during the regular season, five of those in a row are against Golden State, Utah, Denver, the Clippers and Miami. The road games that close the season aren’t any easier with games at Oklahoma City, the Nuggets, the Lakers and Warriors in their final seven overall games. It’s tough, and that’s a good thing.
Key to why this is favorable for San Antonio is the balance it provides. Tucked inside that stretch are games where coach Gregg Popovich can still rest of core players — games against the Timberwolves, Kings and Magic line the schedule once April arrives. As a whole, however, it’s a very tough closing schedule, which serves to keep the Spurs’ edge sharp right as the most important time of the season arrives. Rest is important, but so is keeping a team’s core contributors active even when a top-two seed is locked up in the Western Conference.
1. INDIANA
Owners of the NBA’s best defense, Indiana is only getting better on offense since Danny Granger‘s return and the All-Star break. The Pacers already were winning with defense and little else before, but now with an offense that’s shooting the best in the NBA in the restricted area (73 percent) since the ASW, it has to be a concern for the rest of the East. The Pacers also are shooting 50 percent from 5-to-9 feet, fourth-best in the NBA since everyone went to Houston (stats via the NBA). Hoopsstats.com’s statistics paint another picture for why being bullish on Indiana is warranted: The team is shooting .040 better in its final 10 games than its season average.
Granger is the key even when he acts as a decoy for defenses or a placebo for Indiana itself. He’s just come back from major injury so let’s not heap grand expectations of 19.7 points per 36 minutes, his career average, on him yet. That isn’t to say, however, that he can’t break out in stretches like his old self and give the Pacers a weapon they haven’t had. The Pacers will not catch Miami for No. 1 in the East, but they can still enter as the most dangerous team in the league in the final 20 games.
What do you think?
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