Final Picks For The NBA’s End Of The Season Awards

We’re already in the last month of the season, and while most teams still have around 10 games remaining, we thought it was time to give our seasonal awards before we get into the thick of playoff seedings and matchups (although, we’ve predicted those as well). So, without further ado, here are our picks for the All-NBA Teams, MVP, Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.

Every year, 130 or so media members who cover all 30 NBA teams cast a ballot for the All-NBA Teams. Each media member casts a vote, and players on the All-NBA First Team get five points, Second-Team three points, and Third Team one point. When the votes are tallied up, two forwards, two guards and a center get the distinction of making each of the NBA’s three All-NBA Teams depending on the highest points assigned. There were only two All-NBA Teams selected as late as 1988, but that expanded to three the next year, and that’s a good thing. With so many deserving candidates, it’s nice to keep options open for 15 different players rather than just the original 10.

There are a lot of ways you can fill out your ballot, but we’re just going to make our picks without paying attention to who we think will be selected by the various media members. This is an important distinction, especially when you consider some of our picks may fly in the face of the voting precedent set over the last couple decades. But enough tiptoeing around the issue, lets get at it.

First, we’ll go through all the guards, then the forwards, then the centers, but we’re going to count guys like Tim Duncan as a center, despite Popovich‘s almost decade-long assertion he’s a power forward. Same with guys like Kevin Garnett, and the ‘tweeners who don’t really play a position, but instead play lots of positions. I think you can guess who we’re talking about when we write that (here’s a hint, he’s the MVP this year and probably the next two years if we’re attempting to be honestly prescient about it).

First up, the guards. If you look over the history of the All-NBA awards, you’ll see voters traditionally place a point guard and an off-guard on the roster for the sake of aligning with the five position structure of the classic NBA positional hierarchy. But the position-less NBA has become more of the norm, highlighted by Miami’s small-ball success in last year’s NBA Finals. In that same vein, Kobe Bryant has been in the off-guard position on the All-NBA First Team for the last seven years, but he has been paired with other off-guards on the team as well, most notably Dwyane Wade in 2010 and 2011. The last time someone other than Kobe took a guard spot on the All-NBA First Team, it was the 2005 season when two point guards were selected: Steve Nash and Allen Iverson — although, you could make the case Iverson was an off-guard who sometimes brought the ball up the court (he did lead the team in assists).

This year there’s been a lot of excellent guard play, but not as much from the off-guard slot. The only exceptions among the scoring guards are Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and James Harden. For point guards, there are a lot more to choose from: Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday and the list goes on, all deserve recognition, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll get awarded with an All-NBA spot.

With the paucity of traditional off-guards and a lot of deserving point guards, we’re going to make our selection of the top six guards (for all three All-NBA Teams) without distinguishing between the two guard spots. For example, last year Russell Westbrook and Tony Parker both made Second Team All-NBA despite both being point guards. This year, Parker and CP3 are on the First Team and Wade and Bryant are relegated to the Second team. I know a lot of Lakers fans will say I’m a “hater,” and Kobe has been brilliant quite often this season, shooting at his highest percentage since the 2001-02 season, but it’s hard to vote for a player whose team is on the brink of playoff elimination. Even with a hobbled Dwight Howard and a rapidly-deteriorating Steve Nash, the Lakers just weren’t very good this year, and at least part of that has to fall on Kobe and his sometimes lackadaisical transition defense. Over the summer, the Lakers were a somewhat sexy pick to come out of the West after James Harden was dealt to Houston and San Antonio was one year older, but the Lakers aren’t even in the triumvirate fighting for the three seed just below Oklahoma City and San Antonio, and Golden State and Houston are probably beyond their reach as well. Instead, the Lakers are battling with Utah and Dallas for the final spot in the playoffs. So, sorry Lakers fans, but Kobe is on the second team this year. Paul and Tony Parker have been too valuable, and their teams too successful, to put Kobe ahead of either of them.

The forward position is as top-heavy as the Eastern Conference this season. There’s a steep drop-off after James and Durant on the First Team, and it bares reminding that those two will probably be All-NBA First Team selections for the next five years and beyond. That’s how good — and young — both players are right now. But aside from Carmelo Anthony keeping the Knicks relevant, even after Amar’e Stoudemire has been sidelined yet again this season, and ‘Melo has righted the Knicks despite losing defensive stalwart, Tyson Chandler, to a knee contusion, there just aren’t that many dominant forwards this year as in year’s past. Even Carmelo has had bad stretches and his own injury troubles.

Since you’ll see we’re putting both Tim Duncan and mid-range-heavy Kevin Garnett at the center slots, that leaves a lot of questions for the remaining three spots at forward on the Second and Third Teams. The Pacers have been in the thick of a weak Eastern Conference despite missing Danny Granger for basically the entire season. That’s due largely to the jump Paul George has made. This comes despite George’s pedestrian PER for the year and inconsistency since the All-Star break. But he’s been a part of Indiana’s top five defense this year too, and that can’t be discounted. Blake Griffin has seen his numbers drop after his first two seasons as a 20 and 10 guy, but that’s more a drop in usage than one of overall performance. With Zach Randolph‘s performance going in the tank after the all-star break, and Kevin Love missing pretty much the whole year, that opens up a slot for David Lee of Golden State even as we all nod our heads and concede he’s a pretty awful defender (but he’s working hard, guys!).

Finally, we come down to the center position. Since, if you include Kobe as a small forward, we could just have three forwards on the First team, we have to pick between a player, Tim Duncan — who can sometimes be tagged with the Power Forward label — and the Grizzlies all-around force, Marc Gasol. Gasol doesn’t have eye-opening statistics like Brook Lopez, and he doesn’t fill up a defensive stat sheet like Joakim Noah, but there’s probably no smarter player in the league and Gasol’s the primary reason the Grizzlies have stayed in the thick of a tough Western Conference despite losing their leading scorer, Rudy Gay, in a three-team trade with Toronto and Detroit earlier this year. I’m putting Gasol on the First Team, even though he didn’t make the fan-voted All-Star Game this season. Duncan could get the First Team nod, but Gasol has been more valuable to his team, as evidenced by their recent struggles as he attempts to come back from an abdominal tear. Duncan is the greatest power forward of all time, but he’s in more of a center role this year, and Popovich and the Spurs’ deep rotation is as much the reason the Spurs have yet-again been successful this regular season. Plus, Duncan isn’t playing as much as Gasol: 35 minutes a game for Gasol versus 30 minutes a game for Duncan (although Duncan has a much higher usage rate). But Gasol’s game is very much a nuanced one, predicated on communication and doing whatever he can to be successful every time his team has the ball, rather than him being the one who dominates the ball on offense.

The last center slot goes to Kevin Garnett. I know Garnett isn’t a center, but he’s been lining up as one for Doc Rivers this year, and it’s a good thing too. The Celtics have struggled mightily in his absence. Just check out this piece from Grantland’s Zach Lowe. Chris Wilcox just isn’t going to cut it as Boston’s frontcourt defensive stopper.

Garnett still doesn’t bang on the block on the offensive end — he’s a pretty pure mid-range jumper at this stage of his Hall of Fame career — but in terms of his defense there are very few players capable of defending the bucket like late-career Garnett. We’ll probably get a lot of grief by neglecting to include Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard or Joakim Noah — all of whom have put up some great defensive stat lines — but Garnett has been too valuable to a team that’s battled an injury to their best player, Rajon Rondo. Boston would be a a high lottery team if it hadn’t been for Garnett’s presence. If Garnett is lost to this mysterious foot ailment, the Celtics’ hopes of sneaking a couple games, or a series, from either New York/Miami/Indiana in the first round isn’t likely to happen.

First Team
G- Chris Paul
G- Tony Parker
F- LeBron James
F- Kevin Durant
C- Marc Gasol

Second Team
G- Kobe Bryant
G- Dwyane Wade
F- Carmelo Anthony
F- Blake Griffin
C- Tim Duncan

Third Team
G- Russell Westbrook
G- James Harden
F- Paul George
F- David Lee
C- Kevin Garnett

Hit page 2 to see our top four candidates for the NBA MVP…

MVP
1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Tony Parker

Chris Paul and Tony Parker have led their teams to great records in a tough Western Conference, but both have missed time due to injuries and both have decent enough supporting casts that those games missed didn’t hurt their teams in a significant manner.

Any other year and Kevin Durant walks away with this award. His Thunder have been at the top, or near the top of the standings all season and he’s leading the league in scoring while currently in the midst of becoming just the eighth member of the 50/40/90 club. His current averages (50.2 percent shooting, 41.0 percent three-point shooting and 90.7 percent free throw shooting) are incredible, especially when you consider his usage percentage this year is the highest of anyone in that group not named Larry Bird (whose fantastic 1987-88 season is still the high-water mark for the 50/40/90 club). But LeBron has been incredible this season, and his team just rattled off 27-straight victories.

LeBron’s numbers this year are ridiculous, obviously. He’s shooting over 55 percent from the field and before the last couple of games, he was over 40 percent from the three-point line (he’s at 39.2 right now). He’s fourth in the league in scoring at 26.8 points per game, but he’s also grabbing 8.2 rebounds and dishing 7.3 assists per game while only committing three turnovers. For reference, of the three players above him in the scoring race (Kobe, Carmelo, Durant), none are averaging as many rebounds or assists (in fact none of them are even over eight rebounds or six assists) and none are turning the ball less frequently except for Carmelo’s 2.7 TOs a game. Those numbers are good enough for the best PER in the league, 31.39, per Hoopdata, and the second-highest usage rate of anyone in the top five for PER (Carmelo’s usage rate is significantly higher since he never met a jumper he wouldn’t take). Basically, LeBron James is playing at a level that’s only ever been approached by the all-time contemporary greats like Bird, Magic or Michael, and so he should take home his fourth MVP trophy in five years. It’s not even close, and if he’s not a unanimous selection some media person will have a lot of explaining to do.

Hit page 3 to find out our pick for Rookie of the Year…

Rookie of the Year
1. Damian Lillard
2. Anthony Davis
3. Andre Drummond
4. Bradley Beal

Drummond put up the highest PER of any rookie, but he did so in less than 20 minutes of action a night and his injury has already cost him significant time this season. It’s just like how Anthony Davis’ smattering of ankle and knee tweaks have kept him out of 15 games so far this year for New Orleans. But both players have PERs above 20 (22.26 for Drummond vs. Davis’ 21.40) despite Davis averaging almost 10 minutes and five usage percentage points more per game. Bradley Beal has also missed time this season after some offensive fireworks with an injured John Wall. Beal and Wall are the backcourt of the future in Washington, and it’ll be fun to watch them gel over the next couple of seasons. But Beal wasn’t really in the running even if he’d stayed healthy.

That’s because Damian Lillard’s monster rookie campaign has finally answered the point guard question in Portland. They’ve been looking for a point since “Mighty Mouse,” Damon Stoudamire, started growing cannabis in his suburban home. Lillard’s PER is between Jeff Teague and George Hill among active point guards, and it’s just four points higher than the league average, but he’s started every game for Portland and kept them in contention for a playoff berth in the tough Western Conference. For the year, he’s shooting over 43 percent from the field and over 37 percent from beyond the arc while averaging 19 points and 6.5 assists per game. He’s the fastest player to 1,200 points and 400 assists since Allen Iverson did it for Philadelphia in 1996-97. On the year, Lillard is one of just six players with over 1,300 points and 400 assists this season. The other five? Russell Westbrook, Kobe Bryant, Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and LeBron James. That’s some solid company to keep and especially so when you figure in that he’s still just a rookie. Yes, Lillard has also averaged 3.0 turnovers a game, but that’s still a lot lower than the norm for a rookie point guard averaging more than 38 minutes a night for a playoff contender. Lillard’s defense also needs to improve if he’s going to become one of the league’s best point guards, but his offensive game is as mature as he is as a 22-year-old rookie. Big things are in store for the stone wall countenance of Lillard.

Hit the next page to find out our picks for the Defensive Player of the Year…

Defensive Player of the Year
1. Marc Gasol
2. Larry Sanders
3. Roy Hibbert
4. Joakim Noah
5. Kevin Garnett

The names above are all big men, but Tony Allen and Mike Conley have been deadly pressuring the backcourts of every Memphis opponent. However, the NBA’s defensive leaders are still led by the big men.

It was really hard to come up with this year’s DPOY, and more so when you take into account Dwight’s inability to perform with his usual brilliance. This comes despite Dwight leading the league in rebounding while also averaging the fifth-most blocks per game. That’s a “down year” for Dwight.

Larry Sanders is tied with Serge Ibaka for the league lead in blocks, but all anyone has been focusing on the last couple of weeks are his ejections, not rejections (still love watching the thumbs up video, though). I like to think Sanders is just bringing too much fire to his game, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Roy Hibbert has been dreadful shooting the ball this year, but his defense has been incredible for the league’s leading per-possession defense in Indiana. When Hibbert is on the floor, they’re only giving up 94.4 points per 100 possessions.

Joakim Noah has recorded a triple-double with blocks this year, and he’s helped Chicago survive the continued loss of Derrick Rose. He’s also combined with the Thibodeau defensive scheming to help Chicago become the league’s sixth-best defense on a point-per-possession basis. He’s fantastic in Thibodeau’s system, communicating with his team and playing the pick-n-roll as well as any big man in the league not named Marc.

The Celtics are giving up 103.4 points per 100 possessions with Garnett out, which would make them the 18th-ranked defense in the league. With him on the court, though, they’re only giving up 96.6, which is better than any team not named Indiana.

But the true king of defense this year, in less quantifiable terms than we’re happy with, is Marc Gasol. When he sits, the Memphis Grizzlies give up the same number of points per 100 possessions, 103.8, as the Lakers, which is good for only the 17th-ranked defense in the league. But the Grizzlies only trail the Pacers in giving up less points per possession this year (98.1 per 100 for Memphis) and that’s primarily because of Gasol. With Gasol on the court, the Grizzlies approach Indiana territory, allowing just 95.8 points per 100 possessions. It’s hard to point to a specific statistic both individually or with plus/minus team numbers, since Gasol doesn’t grab that many defensive rebounds or block very many shots. But he possesses an innate ability to read a team’s offense and either thwart it himself with his positioning, or direct his teammates to the right places on the floor to combat an opponent’s offensive movements. It’s Gasol’s ability to read an opponent’s offensive sets, and the skills inherent to their roster, plus his ability to communicate how he and his Grizzlies teammates should match it, that sets him apart from nearly everyone on this list (with the possible exception of Garnett). That’s why he should be the Defensive Player of the Year and an All-NBA First Team member. We just wish there was a better way to show what he does without spending hours editing video footage of all the pick-n-rolls he’s broken up and shots he’s altered (plus all the frontcourt players he’s forced into bad shots or into passing out of the post because of his positioning and toughness). Just a fantastic player and approaching his older brother in terms of the legacy he’ll leave behind when he’s done.

Hit the next page to see who is this year’s Most Improved Player…

Most Improved Player of the Year
1. Jrue Holiday
2. Larry Sanders
3. Paul George
4. Greivis Vasquez

Most people didn’t know about Larry Sanders last year, but his ability to protect the rim has been a large reason why Milwaukee was able to stay in the eighth spot in the East even as Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis appear to have a yo-yo affect on each other’s offensive games (when one goes off, the other does not) and an inability to stop driving ballhandlers. Paul George has made “the leap” to an All-Star this year in a season where Indiana desperately needed it after the loss of Danny Granger. Greivis Vasquez is playing really well in New Orleans (able to put up 20 points and 10 assists on any given night), but he’s prone to a younger player’s mistakes at the toughest position in the league. It’s also pretty hard to come in as team’s starting point guard after Chris Paul held that role.

But Jrue Holiday has made the biggest leap this year and Philly fans can still dream all they want about what such an improved Holiday would have done with a healthy Bynum this season. Holiday played in his first All-Star Game, but he’s also the only point guard averaging better than 18 points and more than eight assists per game (not even Chris Paul can say that). If the Sixers hadn’t been with their improving point guard this year, they would have been even more disappointing, which is saying something. The Most Improved Player award is the hardest to place into an easily-used rubric as a basis for a decision: does it mean improvement in a specific component of one’s game, more recognition when earlier they were overlooked, or a fulfillment of potential glimpsed earlier in their career? It’s hard to figure out which, but Holiday had the most impressive difference from last season’s performance, so he gets the final nod.

Keep reading to see who we picked for the Sixth Man of the Year…

Sixth Man of the Year
1. Jamal Crawford
2. J.R. Smith
3. Jarrett Jack
4. Vince Carter

Smith has given Crawford a run for his money over the last couple of weeks with first Carmelo out and now Tyson in his street clothes. He’s become a huge part of the Knicks’ current six-game winning streak and while his shooting percentages have dipped — like all of the Knicks after starting the season like they were an NBA Jam duo — he’s continued to gun it unapologetically while also playing the more all-around game Mike Woodson implored from him when he announced Smith would be coming off the bench this offseason. Jarrett Jack has cooled too after he played a large role in Golden State getting out to a great record before the All-Star break. Jack still takes too many mid-range jumpers for what’s basically a backup point guard role, and he can get beat by the John Walls of the world on the defensive end (well, maybe that’s a bad example since Wall can blow by just about anyone when he’s healthy). Vince Carter has resuscitated his career playing tough off the bench in Dallas to help a team fighting for their playoff lives. Plus, he looks more badass with that beard and he’s no longer crumpling to the floor when he draws contact on the way to the rim.

But Crawford is simply too dangerous on the offensive end for anyone to upset him for the second Sixth Man of the Year award of his career (he won his first in 2009-10 with Atlanta). While his shooting percentages aren’t great, he’s shooting a shade under 44 percent from the field and a tad over 37 percent on three-pointers, his ability as a one-man offensive system goes a long way towards making Los Angeles a tough matchup for any second unit in the league. Also, he’s able to seamlessly weave his way into the starting rotation towards the end of games when the Clippers need more offensive threats around Paul. His defense is dreadful, the Clippers have to hide him on that end of the floor, but his offense makes up for it and teams have to gameplan for his unique ability to drop buckets.

Keep reading to see who the best coach in the league is…

Coach of the Year
1. Gregg Popovich
2. Tom Thibodeau
3. Erik Spoelstra
4. George Karl

Yes, Tom Thibodeau has the Bulls playing excellent again after a rash of injuries to their best players (Rose, Noah, Boozer and Deng have all missed time), and his defensive schemes continue to be some of the best — if not, the best — in the league. Yes, Erik Spoelstra has the severely talented defending champion Heat playing about as well as any team has ever played in the history of the NBA. Yes, George Karl has a team without a go-to superstar in the thick of the Western Conference battle for the No. 3 seed and homecourt advantage in the thin air of Denver. Yes, there are a handful of other coaches deserving recognition with limited rosters around the league, but there’s only one Gregg Popovich and if it were up to me, he’d win this award every year.

He’s successfully been able to keep his team at the top of the Western Conference standings despite having an aging superstar in Tim Duncan, a struggling Manu Ginobili, and a point guard that’s made the leap to All-NBA First Team status, but who also suffered a sprained ankle. Through it all, Popovich has managed to win and bring along young players missed by other teams, like Tiago Splitter, Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. He’s also resuscitated the careers of Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson. Combined with R.C. Buford, Popovich and the Spurs organization as a whole is the model of small-market creativity, originality and also tradition. After a couple years where the Spurs turned more of the offense over to Parker and the team started to get up-and-down a lot more, their defense suffered as a result. Their points allowed per possession had fallen out of the top 10 over the last couple years. But this season he has them playing with a lot more pride in their defense and it’s shown up on the court. Currently, the Spurs are third in the league in points allowed per possession while continuing to thrive in the Parker-dominated offense, averaging the sixth-highest points per possession rate in the league. All told, the Spurs only trail Oklahoma City and Miami in net plus/minus per 100 possessions. That’s as much a testament to their wily veterans as it is to their coach, and he’s the one that’s brought along the younger players and rested the old fellas enough to make everyone effective. He’s a coach’s coach. He’s also our pick for Coach of the Year.

Now let’s get to the playoffs.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com/stats unless otherwise stated.

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