After watching Steve Blake nail a three-pointer last week to defeat the Houston Rockets, a question popped into my mind: are the Rockets an NBA Finals team? Ever since the acquisition of Dwight Howard this offseason to go alongside James Harden, the Rockets have climbed to the top of the NBA Finals discussion. But I just watched this same team lose to the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers, how could they be a Finals contender? I’m here to tell you that even with the acquisition of the best center in the league, the Rockets are not an NBA Finals-bound team.
Even Rockets GM Daryl Morey agrees with this statement, saying on MaD Radio (via CBS Houston) before the season began:
“I think there are probably at least three teams better than us if not more. Until you’re going into a season feeling like you are the top one or two I think it’s, and we haven’t really accomplished anything, I think it’s hard to talk about ‘hey we’re one of the favorites to win the championship.’ But I do think we go in with a chance, whereas we haven’t in the last few years.”
Excellence takes time and the Houston Rockets are no exception to that. When two or more superstars join forces, the end result of the first year is rarely an NBA championship. The best example of this are the Los Angeles Lakers of last year — a team with a core of Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard. As soon as the team was formed, all the talk was about the NBA Finals. How did that turn out? The team finished a disappointing 45-37, seventh in the Western Conference and bowed out in the first round to the NBA Finals-bound San Antonio Spurs. Could the Rockets suffer the same fate of the Lakers last season?
Here are five key reasons why the Rockets won’t be making a trip to the NBA Finals this year.
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The Emerging Ego of James Harden
Yes, James Harden is one of the best players in the NBA. Is he the fourth best player in the NBA? That’s a conversation for another time; however, Harden requires the ball in his hands most of the time to be one of the best players in the NBA. Remember that game against the Lakers I brought up earlier? Take a look at a play from that game:
Keep your eyes on Harden this WHOLE play. Look at the situation: his team is down two points with less than two minutes to go. When Lin gets the ball past half court, he calls a play and Harden appears dissatisfied with Lin’s play call. We see Harden WALK (why is he walking around the court during a crucial moment of the game?) to the wing and continue to sit there with ZERO movement as his team struggles to find a good shot. Not once does Harden run to set a screen, not once does he attempt to get away from his defender. Harden decides to sit there and watch his teammates fail during a key possession in a game they wound up losing by a point.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) November 12, 2013
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Look at this situation from last night. James Harden is now apparently attempting to play hero ball. There’s 2.3 seconds on the clock and Harden is double teamed, with three shooters wide open (notice EVERY SINGLE RAPTOR is collapsing on Harden). Instead of throwing it to one of his shooters for an uncontested shot to win the game, Harden decides to go Kobe Bryant on us and hoist up an unsuccessful shot to send this game into overtime. There were several other times in overtime where Harden attempted to play hero ball and hoisted up more contested jumpers. The Rockets won because of Jeremy Lin’s 31 points off the bench, but this play from just last night further proves the assertion that James Harden’s ego is taking over faster than his beard took over his face. This does not bode well for the future of the Rockets.
Being an NBA champion requires way more than skill. Look at Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. You know what skill they have that Harden isn’t showing at all? Leadership. James Harden went from being a role player in Oklahoma City, to being Houston’s version of Clark Kent [Eds. note: apologies to Dwight] in a short amount of time. It appears that this pressure is starting to crack Harden’s shell. This ego of being one of the best players in the NBA is turning James Harden into a player that believes his whole team should revolve around what he feels is right. James Harden is an amazing player, don’t take me out of context, but he’s beginning to develop some negative traits. This consuming self-importance of Harden could seriously derail the Rockets’ title chances, especially if video clips and pictures like the ones above keep popping up.
Keep reading to see why the Rockets aren’t title-contenders just yet…
Porous Defense
It’s a classic statement, defense wins championships. It’s the simplest explanation for a team’s success, yet one of the hardest to perform. Most teams that win championships are led by a solid defense. With that being said, apparently the Rockets need to look up the word defense in the dictionary. This all falls back on their leader, James Harden. This season, the Rockets are giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions to their opponents. The Rockets are also giving up 103.0 points a game, which is good for 23rd in the league. James Harden himself is giving up 104 points per 100 possessions. Here’s a hint, none of those statistics are very good.
The team that represented the Western Conference in the finals last year, the San Antonio Spurs, are only giving up 94 points per 100 possessions. Also, the lone undefeated team in the league, the Indiana Pacers, are only giving up an insane 87.5 points per 100 possessions. Looking at championship caliber teams like the Spurs and Pacers, provides an idea about how far this team has to go defensively before they can compete for a title. Especially in the playoffs, where every possession is crucial. The Rockets won’t be able to run up and down on teams like the Spurs and Thunder. Their defense, or lack thereof, will be exposed on national television.
Let’s take a look at some of the defense from James Harden in a loss to the Clippers this year, a loss that saw the Clippers score an insane 137 points.
[Related: More Evidence of James Harden’s Lackluster Defense]
The one that really gets me is at the 43 second mark. James Harden is paying ZERO attention to his defensive assignment (J.J. Redick). While Harden is ignoring Redick, JJ cuts back door completely oblivious to Harden until we hear him yell, “Oh S***!” as Redick knocks down a floater. The next play, at the 50 mark, shows James Harden once again paying no attention toRedick. Harden gets sucked into the vortex of Chris Paul‘s handles as Paul threads a pass to a WIDE open Redick who easily drops a three-pointer through the net. On most of these plays, we see Harden getting torched by J.J. Redick. It’s no secret that Harden is more gifted than Redick, but he’s getting out-worked by the former Blue Devil. Maybe the aerodynamics of his beard are slowing him down; maybe he’s worried about getting the crumbs from his pre-game meal out of his beard rather than paying attention on defense. The worst part of Harden’s whole defensive devolution is that he has potential defensively. Look at this defense on Kobe Bryant when he was on the Thunder:
The Rockets will have to play hard-nosed defense before they contend for an NBA championship. Outscoring opponents won’t work against better competition in the playoffs. Sure, the Rockets can blow the doors off the Charlotte Bobcats, but they won’t outscore Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala in the playoffs. For the Rockets to become NBA Finals material, they will have to find a way to become at least a top-ten defensive team.
Lack of Depth
Superstar duos like Harden and Howard are sweet and dandy, but remember the NBA Finals last year? It wasn’t about guys like Duncan, LeBron, Ginobili and Parker. The names that emerged as game-changers were Gary Neal, Danny Green, Ray Allen and Chris Andersen. All players that were supplemental to the stars, but played an integral role in their team’s path to the Finals. The Heat and Spurs had superstars, but they also had great depth behind their superstars. So, what about the Rockets?
The Rockets core group consists of James Harden, Dwight Howard, Jeremy Lin, Patrick Beverley and Chandler Parsons. Outside of those guys, it starts to look as empty as the Mojave Desert in Houston. GM Daryl Morey created a beautiful castle, but forgot to build a strong base to hold it together. The bench in Houston consists of names like Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer, Francisco Garcia, Terrence Jones and Donatas Montiejunas. No offense to these players, but they aren’t NBA finals material. These six players have combined for a whopping total of 138 points this season. James Harden has 161 points by himself, so that shows how impotent this bench really is.
Acquiring superstars usually comes with the disadvantage of taking away from a team’s bench, something that will affect Houston as the season trudges on. The Spurs consistently have one of the best benches in the NBA, which is why we see them as title contenders year after year. Over time, the Rockets will be able to fix this issue, but this will foul up title contention in season one of the Superman and Beard show.
See what else is preventing the Rockets from reaching the NBA Finals…
Dwight Howard’s Free Throw Shooting
Dwight Howard is comparable to Shaq in one category: free throw shooting. It’s no secret that Howard is a horrid free throw shooter and has revived the Hack-A-Shaq strategy Gregg Popovich made famous when Shaq was dominating the league. Howard has been in the top ten for free throw attempts every year in the league, coming in first four separate times. Houston, we have a problem! The lack of depth in Houston makes it necessary to have Howard on the floor as much as possible, but this creates a huge problem in crunch time. Anytime before the two minute mark in the fourth quarter, teams can Hack-A-Dwight and send the career 58 percent FT shooter to the line to try his luck. The Lakers implored this strategy the other night and it worked like a charm. Howard wound up going 5-of-16 from the line and the Rockets lost by a point. Look at this video of Howard running away from the Lakers players trying to avoid getting fouled and being sent to the free throw line:
If Kevin McHale decides to sit Howard during crunch time, then who will he put out at center? Omer Asik is a 53 percent free throw shooter who is limited offensively. Take them both out and the paint is open to any contestant looking to add a play to their highlight reel. When the real games come around, games will be won and lost based on who makes their free throws. Teams will attack Howard and send him to the line any chance they get. Points are so crucial, especially in the playoffs, and a missed free throw by Howard could determine the fate of the season for the Rockets. The season is only a few weeks young and we have already seen the Rockets derailed by a Mamba-less Lakers team that used the Hack-A-Dwight strategy.
Howard’s free throw shooting is not ameliorating. Since coming into the league shooting 67 percent his rookie season, Howard has been on a steady decline every season, reaching a nadir at 49 percent the past two seasons. He’s already only shooting 47 percent from the line this season. It’s clear that Howard may only get worse at the line, which is terrible news for the Rockets’ title chances.
The Wild Wild West
Lets step outside of Houston for a second, because there are some extraneous variables that seriously stop the Rockets from being in the NBA Finals discussion. Those variables include the Thunder, the Clippers, the Warriors, the Spurs, the Grizzlies; the Western Conference is stacked. The biggest obstacle in the Rockets championship quest is the amount of legitimate NBA Finals contenders they have to go through in their own conference. How many of us can actually see the Rockets beating any of those teams listed in a seven game series? Honestly, I can’t see them beating any of those teams four games out of seven. Dwight Howard and James Harden isn’t enough against Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. They aren’t enough against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley. Dwight Howard and James Harden isn’t enough aga — I think you get the point I’m trying to make here.
The level of competition in the Western Conference is so high it makes me wonder if this team even can get past the second round. Maybe even the first, depending on where they fall in the final seeds. The Rockets have already lost to Chris Paul and the Clippers twice this season by more than 10 points. The Clippers seriously look ready to compete for an NBA title this year and are already proving their Western Conference dominance by lighting up the Rockets early in this season. It’s still extremely early, but the Rockets haven’t gotten off to a hot start with a 5-3 record. Meanwhile, San Antonio stands at 7-1 and Harden’s buddies in OKC are 5-1.
Perhaps the biggest factor against the Rockets in the West is that their competition has a distinct advantage over them: chemistry. All the teams I mentioned as threats to the Rockets have been together for a couple years or more and didn’t infuse their roster with a big name like the Rockets did this summer. The Rockets will require time to develop this chemistry and it won’t be happening this year against a stacked Western Conference.
Seriously, the Rockets won’t be in the Finals this year.
Don’t take me out of context, I’m not saying the Rockets won’t make the playoffs, I’m sure they will, they just won’t be making it past the first or second round. There is potential in Houston, but there are too many overwhelming factors that make it nearly impossible for the Rockets to be in the Finals this hear. Plus, I don’t think there’s any way in this world that Kevin Durant lets James Harden get another attempt at a ring before he does. Be happy Houston, you have the making of a great team, but a trip to the Finals this year is premature.
What do you think?
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