Who’s Better: John Wall Or Mike Conley?

John Wall has the Wizards up to 9-9. Washington is getting it all from Wall. At 19 points, 9.2 assists and 2.3 steals per game, he’s on his way to the All-Star Game. Finally, right? While it seems as though Wall’s long-awaited breakout is happening at last, there’s another point guard who’s waited even longer for recognition.

Mike Conley is only one of the best two-way players at the lead guard spot. He was only the floor general for one of the best teams in the Western Conference over the past few seasons. Right now, he’s only averaging over 18 points a night on nearly 50 percent shooting. And he’s only third among point guards in PER (22.74).

Since their styles are so different, we decided to throw down the gauntlet. Which player is better — Wall or Conley? We argue. You decide.

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JOHN WALL
Bigger is better.

No other axiom is more prevalent in the world of sports, especially in basketball. Now, this of course is a generalization, not a blanket truth. But when comparing players, if all other factors hold true, it is conventional wisdom to go with the taller, longer player.

This is the case when comparing Mike Conley Jr. and John Wall.

Both possess blinding speed and quickness, though I would argue that Wall’s top-level speed in the open floor supersedes that of Conley’s. They both possess an uncanny ability to generate steals on the defensive side and coincidentally, are scoring very well this season: they are both averaging career-highs in points per game.

This is where the comparisons end and the contrast begins.

John Wall’s physical prowess is something that sets him apart from most point guards in the league. He is a legit 6-4, with a 6-9.25 wingspan and showed off a 39-inch vertical leap at the NBA Draft Combine back in 2010. He is capable of defending three positions effectively while leading the NBA in assists this season sans Chris Paul.

Now for a point guard that has always had a certain level of team success, Conley does not hand out as many assists as the casual fan would assume. He’s averaged 5.6 for his career, which is somewhat baffling considering the fact that he is a pass-first point guard. Compare this to Wall, who is averaging a cool 8.1 assists a game for his career.

To put this into perspective, the only active NBA players with a higher average assists per game are Chris Paul (9.9), Deron Williams (8.9), Steve Nash (8.5) and Rajon Rondo (8.3). Now considering that Rondo has not played yet this season, along with the fact that Nash and Williams have both missed significant time with injuries, it’s no wonder Wall is second in the league in dimes. Still, to be placed in this lofty company speaks for itself.

More importantly, John Wall exudes a certain Wow Factor that’s missing from Conley’s game. Here is exhibit number one.

And exhibit number two.

Okay, let’s not get carried away here. In all fairness, Mike Conley Jr. is a consistent and crafty floor leader that has guided his team to the postseason the last three years. But one has to wonder how much better the Grizzlies could have done if they had a different point guard.

The true test of who is actually better is how each respective team would fare if these two players would switch places. And though it is difficult to imagine a team that made it to the Western Conference Finals doing better, I do believe the Grizzlies would have given the San Antonio Spurs a much more competitive series had Wall been their point guard instead of Conley.
-DAVID JIN PARK

Hit page 2 to check out the argument for Conley…

MIKE CONLEY
Wait, Mike Conley is in the same class as John Wall? YES. Mike Conley has been affected by playing in a small market in Memphis, where a lot of people don’t see the Grizzlies play often. Nonetheless, Conley has been ballin’ this year. He’s averaging 18.2 points and 6.4 assists on an impressive 49 percent from the field. I bet you didn’t even know he was having that great of a season. Averaging 14.6 points last season, Conley was more of an afterthought to Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. This season, however, Mike Conley is the proverbial leader of the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s averaging more points than Z-Bo (16.0) and has become the leader of a Western Conference powerhouse that will be without defensive stalwart Marc Gasol for the foreseeable future. Mike Conley is putting people on watch this year and may sneak into the conversation as a top 10 point guard. But, for right now, let’s just stay with the fact that Mike Conley is a better point guard than John Wall.

John Wall is no slouch, however. The $80-million man is averaging 19 points and 9.2 assists this season, also pacing himself to enter the top 10 point guard conversation, if he’s not already in it. Wall is a good player, there’s no denying that. But good is not great and there are flaws in Wall’s game.

To the naked eye, Wall’s production is better than Conley’s, no doubt. But, I’m not the naked eye. I’m looking deeper than basic numbers. Wall’s numbers are based off of 37.2 minutes per game, while Conley is playing 33.8 minutes per game. Sure, it doesn’t look like that great of a difference. But, with Wall being on the court about 3.6 minutes more than Conley, he’s getting about nine more possessions. The minutes may only be greater by 3.4, but nine possessions can impact a game, especially because Conley is only averaging .7 points less than Wall. Mike Conley’s per-36 minute averages for points actually outpace Wall at 19.5 to 18.4. Another fact to point out is that according to NBA.com/stats, Conley is averaging more points per touch (.21) compared to Wall (.20). Wall may have the edge in general scoring numbers, but behind the scenes one can see that Conley is the better option.

Player efficiency is a huge deal, especially for a point guard. I can’t have my point guard throwing up shots every game and turning the ball over at a high rate. This is another category where I would rather have Conley over Wall. You’re right, Wall is averaging more assists than Conley. I can’t deny it and I won’t shy away from that fact. But, let’s not hide that Wall is getting 18.6 assist opportunities per game compared to 12.2 for Conley. Break those numbers down more and Conley is actually converting on a clean 50 percent of his assist opportunities compared to 48 percent for Wall (assists per game/assist opportunities). Conley is actually distributing the ball better, even though the initial numbers may say different. There’s always more behind a number, just like we’ve seen right here.

To discuss this further, the turnovers have to be brought up when pitting two point guards against each other. Wall is averaging 3.3 turnovers per game this season while Conley is averaging 1.8. Wall is 15th in the league in turnovers; Conley is ranked 102 in the league. Quite the difference.

Another component in player efficiency is shooting percentages. Which player is actually more efficient? The answer is Mike Conley. Conley is shooting 49 percent from the field while Wall is shooting 41.6 percent. Conley is the more efficient shooter, despite shooting 1.6 fewer shots per game than Wall (14.6 to 16.2). This is important because someone might say that Conley has a better shooting percentage because he’s taking less shots, giving him less opportunities to miss. But, with Wall only having 1.6 more field goal attempts a game, it proves Conley is the more efficient shooter. Also, Conley trumps Wall in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot. Ironically, Wall is stroking it better from deep at 34.4 percent compared to Conley’s 30.8 percent. However, Conley’s eFG percentage is higher at 52.8 percent, whereas Wall’s falls behind at 45.4 percent. Even with Wall shooting a better percentage from deep, he still isn’t a better shooter when three-point percentages are valued more than a regular jumper.

John Wall is thought to be more of a slasher, effective at getting to the rim. But once again, Conley has been more effective at John Wall’s expertise this season. While Wall is scoring 2.4 points per game from drives (37.1 percent conversion on drives), Conley is almost doubling that production at 5.2 (54.8 percent conversion on drives). These percentages are more important than just scoring points. As a point guard, a great way to draw attention that leaves teammates wide open is to get to the bucket and dish it out. The more effective a point guard is at finishing at the rim, the better he can be as a facilitator in the paint. Conley, who is the Grizzlies all-time leader in assists and steals, converts on 17.7 percent more of his attempts at the rim. This makes Conley a threat scoring at the rim, but also a threat to drop dimes from his penetration, leaving opponents clueless as to what he will do.

From the surface, it might seem like Conley can’t hold up with John Wall. This is the furthest thing from the truth. Some of you might not get to see Conley play a lot, but his numbers are indicative of his progress as a great point guard. With the injury to Marc Gasol, Conley now takes on an even bigger role and he’s ready to produce. John Wall is a great player and he will grow with time, but Mike Conley gets the nod right now.