The Los Angeles Clippers had a bright, sunny and clear forecast in the days leading up to the start of the regular season on October 31. Chris Paul was locked into a max contract in the early months of the 2013 offseason. Blake Griffin was making substantial progress in developing his offensive game. DeAndre Jordan was busy strengthening his defensive skills. Offensive weapons were added – J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley – to the Clips’ depth. And Doc Rivers made his way to the opposite side of the country to mold the team into legitimate title contenders.
Not all has gone as planned for the Clippers so far this season, despite their current top standing in the Pacific Division. On top of that, the early season forecast quickly warped into a 180° forecast that called for dark and gloomy days on January 3, as Chris Paul collided with the Mavericks’ Monta Ellis and fell to the floor, grimacing in pain and holding his right shoulder. A later MRI confirmed that CP3 separated his shoulder, and despite not requiring surgery, the injury would sideline the All-Star up to six weeks.
It would be an understatement to say Chris Paul is the glue for the Clippers. His impact on both ends of the court and to his teammates is invaluable. Prior to last week’s injury, Paul had been playing arguably his best basketball of his career. He was putting up remarkable, MVP-like numbers – 19.6 PPG and 11.2 APG – that were separating himself among the other elite point guards in the NBA. Now? The team isn’t nearly as dangerous… and Stephen Curry has passed CP3 in All-Star voting.
While Blake Griffin has additionally been playing the best basketball of his career recently and has covered up the absence of CP3 for the short-term, the fact is that the loss of the Clippers’ point man for up to six weeks is huge. It will be the Clips’ biggest challenge this season by far, as each player – especially Griffin and Darren Collison – will have to step-up in a monumental way.
The fans and the Clippers themselves have had a week to witness a preview of what the next possible six weeks will be like without Chris Paul in the lineup. The Clips were steamrolled by the Spurs, but gained back some momentum with an easy win against the East’s second worst team, the Magic. On Wednesday, they squeaked by with a win against the Celtics.
Therefore, the question is how will the Clips fare against elite and competitive teams, like San Antonio, without Paul. Let’s take a look at the five areas the Clippers will miss the most and will have to find ways to fill in with CP3 sidelined.
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5. DEFENSE
The Clippers’ offense may become stagnate at times in Chris Paul’s absence – as it did during their first outing without CP3 against San Antonio – but the Clips employ a wide variety of offensive weapons to cover for Paul. Therefore, the defense is the main concern without Paul, specifically on the perimeter. When the Clippers already give up 99.7 points per game (13th in the NBA), loosing arguably your best all-around defender for up to six weeks is going to be a challenge.
CP3 is an outstanding defender and an excellent thief (five-time NBA steals leader), as his selection for the All-Defensive First Team on three separate occasions – 2009, 2012 and 2013 – are proof of that. According to Synergy Sports, CP3’s defense gives up just 0.76 points per possession and allows only 34.1 percent of opponent’s attempts to score. Meanwhile, Darren Collison gives up 0.84 points per possession while allowing 37.1 percent of opponent’s attempts to score. The downgrade in defense will be covered up when the Clippers face below .500 teams, but when they meet up with teams with star or elite point guards – such as Golden State, Denver and Portland – this will be a weakness that opponents will expose and take advantage of.
4. LEADERSHIP
Chris Paul has grown into one of the most effective leaders in the league. He plays with a chip on his shoulder, which is a side effect from his competitive nature, but knows where to draw the line. His attitude is infectious to his teammates, as he not only controls the pace of the game, but he controls the night-to-night emotion the Clippers play with.
CP3 has the experience at many levels of the game, which he can draw from to lead his team. Not only is he a leader that can envision the endpoint for the team, but he additionally knows how to motivate and empower his teammates to come together to reach that envisioned goal. Darren Collison simply is not the leader the Clippers will need in competitive games or crucial moments, and Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have had Chris Paul as the leader on the court for three years now. Therefore, they haven’t had to step up as the outright leader and thus lack the experience to do so.
Keep reading to see what the Clippers will do at the end of games…
3. CLUTCH GENE
Chris Paul is one of the most clutch players on the hardwood today, whether it appears in the form of a pass, a steal, or a shot. When the game is on the line, the Clippers want the ball in CP3’s hands at any cost. 82games.com defines “clutch” as the fourth quarter or overtime with less than five minutes remaining and neither team up by five or more points. In those 48 minutes of clutch time per 82games.com, CP3 is posting 45.1 points on 40.8 percent shooting – which ranks in the top five in the NBA for clutch scoring.
Besides Jamal Crawford, it is hard to imagine whose hands the ball will be in without CP3 on the court when the game is in crunch time, especially given their frontcourt’s inconsistency at the charity stripe.
2. DECISION-MAKING
Chris Paul is arguably playing with the highest basketball I.Q. in the game today. His knack of reading the defense before they are even set, gives him the upper hand in any offensive possession. Per ESPN, CP3 has the fourth highest rank among all players in value added with a 291.5 rating, which leads by far if you are looking strictly among point guards. While Darren Collison is a solid backup for Paul, his value added rating of 68.1 is a major drop-off.
Darren Collison is additionally more careless with the ball, operating with a 11.6 turnover ratio, compared to CP3’s 8.2 – according to ESPN. This stat is reflective of the differential between the decision-making process of Paul and Collison. Paul’s superior court vision, handle, awareness, and skills in the open court all stem from his decision-making ability. This not only bodes well in setting up his teammates with his playmaking, which will be discussed next, but he operates instantaneously by consistently making the right decisions.
1. PLAYMAKING
It is no secret that Chris Paul makes the game easier for every one of his teammates. Blake Griffin has been putting up big numbers as of late, but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts without CP3 setting him up offensively. This especially holds true when defenses start to pickup on the Clippers’ recent reliability on running their offense through Griffin in the post. Paul is not only an elite player in the league, but he is an elite playmaker as well. His ability to remain a pass-first point guard with a league-leading 54.3 assist percentage, while averaging nearly 20 points per game, is mindboggling.
The truth is that Darren Collison is nowhere near the kind of playmaker that Chris Paul is. The absence of CP3’s playmaking, especially for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan in pick-and-roll sets, will be the biggest intangible that the Clips will miss during the his absence. His playmaking skills keep the defense on their heels for all 48 minutes. As said before, L.A. has the necessary weapons to keep the offense going. However, the offense can only go so far without Paul on the floor. Going against the elite teams, especially in the stacked Western Conference, the defense will go hard at the lack of Chris Paul’s playmaking and try to make the Clippers’ pay for his void.
*Stats provided by Basketball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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