What Are The Best One-On-One Matchups In Each NBA Playoff Series?

The 2015 NBA Playoffs tip off with four games on Saturday and four more on Sunday in a weekend straight out of hoop heaven. While not every first round series will turn into a titanic battle of wills, there are plenty of individual matchups to pick over in the opening round. These eight are the ones to keep an eye out for after Toronto and Washington tip off the festivities in the opening game on ESPN at 12:30 ET.


Al Horford vs. Brook Lopez

Let’s be honest: The Nets would be able to claim a moral victory from this series if they don’t get swept. But the only reason the Nets even sniffed the playoffs has been the play of their center, the man who puts the “Brook” in Brooklyn. Since the All-Star Break, he’s averaging 19.7 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game. The points and blocks are close to his career averages, but the rebounding has taken a needed leap.

Because Deron Williams has cratered, the Nets are going to have to play through Brook by surrounding him with perimeter shooting, otherwise known as the one thing the Nets do pretty well. They have six rotation players who average at least 30 percent from three, but Brook could really stand to bump up his facilitating, since he currently averages less than a single assist per game.

Of course, the Hawks shoot it even better, and their big man in the middle, Al Horford, can do pretty much everything Lopez does, but slightly fewer touches — they’re in the 88th (Brook) and 87th percentile offensively, per Synergy. He also does more than Brook in other facets of the game, and could potentially lock him down as well — though both are mediocre defenders, but while Brook is a -.03 defensive real plus-minus, Horford is 0.58.

Brook’s going to need to get his in the paint and hope the Nets can catch fire from outside if anything crazy’s going to happen in this series.

ADVANTAGE: Al Horford

Kyrie Irving vs. Isaiah Thomas

This is another series no one expects to be competitive, but a heroic effort from the only Celtic who’s shown any heroic tendencies could change things. While we’re on the subject, here’s something to think about:

You hear that, LeBron? You’re not the only one who can dominate the ball, score efficiently AND distribute to teammates. You also probably couldn’t guard Thomas one-on-one either. Yes, we know Isaiah comes off the bench, but he’ll play starter’s minutes, and the only Cavalier with the quicks to hang with him is Kyrie, who is essentially a bigger, stronger version of Thomas (he probably has better handles too, but not by that much).

On the other hand, if Thomas has to guard Kyrie for extended stretches, something will probably have gone wrong. The Celtics possess one thing in abundance: guards who can harass perimeter ball-handlers. But even if Avery Bradley or Marcus Smart can contain Irving, the Cavs have another pretty good player who can do damage to their defense. That’s why the only Celtic who could outscore Kyrie or LeBron is the player to watch. And if Kyrie really has improved on defense, this will be a real test for him.

ADVANTAGE: Kyrie Irving, but not by as much as you might think

Jimmy Butler vs. Khris Middleton

OK, if we’re being honest, the real matchup to watch is Giannis vs. The Basic Precepts Of Physics And Reality, but we’re playing it straight. This series is going to be a serious mudfight. Both teams are built on defense (Chicago is No. 11 and Milwaukee 2 in fewest points given up per possession this season), and while the Bulls have far superior offensive firepower, they also play slowly to begin with (21 vs. 12 for Milwaukee), so when the Stretch Armstrong Bucks are mucking up the passing lanes, they need players to break down the defense off the dribble.

We’ve learned not to expect anything from Derrick Rose. Sure, he could take over the series and spawn dozens of “The Resurrection of Derrick Rose” reaction pieces, but even so, he won’t do it himself. Jimmy Butler has been slowed by injuries for months now, but if he can morph back into the monster he was in the first half, he will open up the whole offense for the Bulls’ oversized, constricted front-court.

Khris Middleton will undoubtedly be the most important player to the Bucks’ chances. He’ll be guarding Butler primarily, as well as providing help against the Bulls’ dangerous bigs in Jason Kidd’s aggressive system. More than that, he is the primary offensive threat for the Bucks’ starting lineup. His outside shooting will be the key for allowing the Bucks to get anything done in the halfcourt. If he goes cold, the Bucks don’t have much of a shot. It’ll be an upcoming 3&D wing vs. a 3&D wing who’s about to get a big payday this summer, and could tack on a few million more a year if he explodes in the series.

ADVANTAGE: Jimmy Butler, but only if he’s healthy

Kyle Lowry vs. John Wall

Now we’re talking. Two of the best three point guards in the Eastern Conference will be going at it all series. This has a high possibility of resembling the Raptors’ first round series last year against the Nets: a tightly contested clash that isn’t played very well, but there’s plenty of emotion as both sides grasp for an advantage. Kyle Lowry had an incredible first half, then an anonymous couple months while he dealt with a back injury. He’s back now, but health concerns have to linger, especially considering who he’s going to have to guard.

Both Wall and Lowry are their respective teams’ emotional leaders and most talented players. Their styles of play are very different: Wall has the edge in athleticism and passing skill, but Lowry is as tough as anybody and is the better outside shooter. Wall is the golden boy making good on all his promise, and Lowry is the underdog who scrapped every step of the way to get where he is.

Of course, this fantastic matchup will be surrounded by ugly, 90s-style offense and benches that, Lou Williams aside, who have a tendency to disappear for long stretches. Just let these two go one-and-one in a game to 100 and call that the series.

ADVANTAGE: Even

 

Draymond Green vs. Anthony Davis

The possible Defensive Player of the Year is going to have to spend a lot of time guarding the heir to the Best Player Alive crown. Anthony Davis isn’t quite there yet, but he is also going to need to dominate this series on a historic level to give the Pelicans a chance against the Dubs juggernaut.

Draymond Green could average 2 points a game in this series, but if he can come close to containing Davis, he will have done his job. Dray has overcome a lack of size and explosiveness with an abundance of intelligence, strength and attitude. But can he really slow down a mutant who towers over him AND could outrun him with those Mr. Fantastic strides? Andrew Bogut is nowhere near quick enough to contain the Brow, and hates being drawn out onto the perimeter. Davis’ deadly midrange game would pull Bogut away from the rim, exposing it to the slashing Tyreke Evans.

The Pelicans, now that they’re healthy with Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson back, are more talented than most people think, but if Draymond Green can do the unthinkable and slow down Anthony Davis, New Orleans doesn’t stand a chance.

ADVANTAGE: Ever-so-slight edge to Anthony Davis

James Harden vs. Rajon Rondo

Much has been made of Rajon Rondo not fitting the Mavericks’ system and dragging an otherwise elite offense back down to earth, but that’s not Playoff Rondo. We don’t know if Playoff Rondo will fully show up (it’s been a minute), but if he turns into an all-consuming, triple-double monster, Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki’s jobs will get a lot easier and the Mavericks could reach a level we haven’t seen from them yet.

He’ll also spend a good chunk of this series guarding James Harden. However you feel about his MVP chances (I tend to think he deserves it because of the whole Defensive Player of the Year thing I mentioned above) or his style of play (grow up), he is the Rockets’ engine, and they will go exactly as far as he takes them. Rondo has the length to bother him, but not the strength to bang with him if and when Harden puts his shoulder down and barrels to the hoop, inevitably drawing a foul in the process. If Tyson Chandler has to help on Harden drives too many times and gets in foul trouble, the next big man up is (gulp) Amar’e.

On the other side, Harden might have to guard Rondo more than you think — what, you think he should guard Monta? The Beard has made huge strides on defense this year, especially in the hustle plays (transition, closing out shooters, etc.). He’ll have to sustain his defensive effort to slow Rondo, or whoever he guards, and still have the energy to carry the Rockets’ offense. He’s been doing it all year, but he hasn’t met Playoff Rondo yet. To be fair, neither has Dallas — so we’ll see.

ADVANTAGE: Harden, but Rondo might revert back to the 2012 iteration, so watch out

Chris Paul vs. Tony Parker

Chris Paul, Tony Parker

We’ve all had time to adjust to Kawhi Leonard, Destroyer Of Worlds, being the best Spur. Tim Duncan is still Tim Duncan, against all odds. But in the last game these teams played against each other, Greg Popovich didn’t have Leonard guarding Chris Paul, opting for Parker, Ginobili or whatever backups were in the game. Well, the Clippers won that game despite the famous 10-for-28 DeAndre Jordan put up at the free throw line after Popovich called for intentional fouls. CP3 had 22 points and 16 assists.

It would be great for basketball fans if Popovich took the loss as a lesson against Hack-A-Jordan, but we’ll probably see it at some point. For most of the game (hopefully), Chris Paul is likely to be facing a lot of guards who can’t stay in front of him, but a team that’s incredibly well-organized on defense in general (the Spurs gave up the third fewest points per possession in the NBA this season). That probably translates to a ton of one-on-one plays for CP3, so it’s encouraging that he’s a complete killer in those situations. If Kawhi Leonard starts guarding Chris, he’s going to need to work a lot harder to get and keep the ball, but will have more opportunities to find his teammates in mismatches.

On the other side, if Tony Parker is healthy, he is one of the few point guards in the NBA who can beat Paul off the dribble — sometimes. We’re all expecting the Spurs to be in peak condition for the playoffs, but there’s a significant chance Parker, and all the miles he’s logged during long runs in the postseason, doesn’t have the legs to prevent CP3 from swallowing him up. If that happens, it will put more pressure on Duncan, Leonard and Ginobili. Wait, that doesn’t sound that encouraging, does it? Crap, the Spurs are so damn good.

ADVANTAGE: Paul, but only because TP’s health is still up in the air.

LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Marc Gasol

This was a toss-up with Conley vs. Lillard (and training staff vs. training staff), but Marc Gasol is the Most Important Grizzly, so his matchup with Aldridge (co-Most Important Blazer with Lillard) is going to take center stage. Both of these players are uniquely talented big men. Aldridge is the better shooter, but Gasol is the better defender and distributor. While they’re two of the most important offensive cogs for each other’s teams, they didn’t spend much time defending each other during Memphis’ four wins in head-to-head games this season. Either Z-Bo or Kousta Koufos took Aldridge and left Marc on Robin Lopez or Chris Kaman. Still, switches happen and their battle on both sides of the ball will play perhaps the largest role in the final outcome.

This matchup, like this series, is impossible to predict at this stage. Neither of these big guys are fully healthy, but they’re both going to take heavy workloads, and there are a few very plausible scenarios:

  1. Both Aldridge and Gasol play well, and Mike Conley and Tony Allen are healthy enough to dominate a Blazers’ perimeter rotation still missing Wesley Matthews.
  2. Both Aldridge and Gasol play well, but Conley and Allen aren’t healthy, and the series is a complete toss-up. The Batum-Green or Randolph-Lopez might decide the series (toss-ups, but Z-Bo and Lopez will spend the majority of time defending these two primary post threats).
  3. Aldridge catches fire, Lillard catches fire, nothing else matters because they can score nearly 90 points between them at their absolute zenith.
  4. Aldridge’s shots don’t fall, nothing else matters because the Blazers are too injured and Dame can’t do it himself.

Notice how none of those account for Gasol-based variables. That’s because if his shot’s not falling, he will distribute out of the high post and create easy shots for teammates. If his shot is falling, he still won’t dominate the ball the way LaMarcus can — even though Jeorger and Co. have gotten him to shoot a career-high 13.2 attempts this season. Gasol’s better all-around, but that doesn’t mean he’ll win against Aldridge. He’s elite defensively, but LMA won’t be going against Gasol on that end as much.

Basically, Gasol-Aldridge is the most important matchup of the series and the most intriguing, but there are so many variables in play because of how banged-up both teams are that there aren’t any easy “if-then” scenarios like the ones discussed above. That alone means that Blazers-Grizzlies might be the best first-round matchup of them all.

ADVANTAGE: Matters very little since they won’t be guarding each other

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