There are a lot of things to look forward to for these 2015 NBA Playoffs. Maybe we won’t have five Game 7s in the same weekend like we did last year, but there are plenty of exciting skirmishes just waiting to break out in a season where even the favorites (Golden State, Cleveland, San Antonio, Atlanta) aren’t really favorites. Last year we had the Heat and Spurs and everyone’s excitement about a rematch of the 2013 Finals.
This year, LeBron switched teams and inverted Miami and Cleveland’s fortunes in the process. But Atlanta got out to such a large early-season lead for the No. 1 seed, it was a foregone conclusion — barring a historic collapse — they’d wrapped up the Conference in late-March. They did, but the Cavs are the odds-on favorites to win the 2015 NBA Title. That’s more the idiocy of the gambling public than any actual analysis, but there’s some truth behind the public’s fervor for Cleveland because the Western Conference is like a Mad Max race through a sandstorm.
Enough preamble, let’s get into each series.
(1) Atlanta Hawks vs. (8) Brooklyn Nets
Head-to-Head: 4-0, Hawks
Matchup to Watch: Al Horford vs. Brook Lopez
Relevant Injuries:
HAWKS – Thabo Sefolosha done for the year, Mike Scott questionable for Game 1 (back).
NETS – Sergey Karasev and Mirza Teletovic done for the year; Alan Anderson (ankle) questionable for Game 1.
Key Stats:
HAWKS – The team took and made more catch-and-shoot jumpers than any team in the league: 30.1 tries per game with an effective field goal percentage of 56.0.
NETS – Brook Lopez averaged 20.1 points and 9.7 rebounds per game after March 1, leading his team to a 14-11 record over that timeframe.
Storylines:
HAWKS – Though history wouldn’t remember it as such, Brooklyn beating Atlanta would represent perhaps the biggest upset in playoff history. The Hawks were flat-out dominant for regular season’s majority before clinching the East’s top seed three weeks ago, while the Nets inched to the postseason mostly due to the conference’s deplorable middle class. Atlanta will miss Thabo Sefolosha, Brook Lopez might put up big numbers, and Kyle Korver cooled off considerably following the All-Star break. All that said, though, Lionel Hollins and company are simply overmatched here – the Hawks should make quick work of them.
NETS – Brooklyn got into the playoffs because Hollins’ old team beat Indiana on the last night of the NBA season. They are probably the worst team to the make the playoffs this year, but all is not lost — even if Paul Pierce thinks they’re just going through the motions. Though the Nets finished 22 games behind Atlanta to finish the season, they’re 17-13 since the All-Star break. Mike Scott’s possible absence could dampen Atlanta’s bench effectiveness: none of Atlanta’s starters averaged over 33 minutes per game this season.
Plus, Lopez, though matched up against a very capable — and healthy (yey!) — Horford, has helped Brooklyn finish as the No. 5 team in the entire Association for points in the paint. He’s a true back-to-the-basket nuisance who could slow the game down for Brooklyn and back Atlanta into a corner. This probably won’t happen, but it’s the only chance they have with such a dearth of perimeter play-making (yeah, we’re talking about you Deron).
(2) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (7) Boston Celtics
Head-to-Head: 2-2
Matchup to Watch: Kyrie Irving vs. Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart
Relevant Injuries:
CAVS – Anderson Varejao done for year.
CELTICS – Avery Bradley (quadricep), Jae Crowder (ankle), Kelly Olynyk (heat) questionable for Game 1.
Key Stats:
CAVS – In the 36 games LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love played together since the team acquired Timofey Mozgov, the Cavaliers went 32-4.
CELTICS – Despite hitting multiple game-winning shots this season, Evan Turner made just 18 of his 52 attempts (34.6 percent) in the clutch overall.
Storylines:
CAVS – Wyc Grousbeck wanted to play James and the Cavaliers in the playoffs – let’s see how he feels about that after two games at Quicken Loans Arena. While we’re fully confident Cleveland will move on with relative ease, it’d be foolish to count out the Celtics entirely. Brad Stevens is perhaps the league’s top in-game strategist; how he’ll fare against a fellow rookie playoff coach will loom large to Boston’s chances. His team boasts the side-to-side ball movement of teams that could theoretically give the undisciplined Cavs trouble, too.
Cleveland’s talent will prove overwhelming for the Celtics, though, and its home court advantage will be among the postseason field’s best. While it’s possible and perhaps even likely that Boston will steal a win at TD Garden, drama in this series will be restricted to a game-by-game basis – the Cavs are too good and too motivated to have much trouble here.
CELTICS – Maybe Evan Turner has something special planned for LeBron? There’s a lot of leftover animosity on LeBron’s part in this series because we all know what happened the last time he was sporting a Cavs uniform in TD Garden for a playoff game. Blatt might struggle with the in-game adjustments necessary during the slog of a postseason series, and Stevens has proven to be one of the game’s great tacticians, specially after timeouts (ATO).
But the Cavs are just so much stronger from a talent standpoint, anything but two home wins in this series is too much of a reach. The C’s will go home in the first round, but their against a superior team will go a long way in determining rebuilding plans this summer. It’s also going to be a lot of fun to see Smart and Bradley try and corral Kyrie Irving, even if Zeke gets more crunch-time minutes off the bench. But the presence of James eclipses all, and his disappointing TD Garden exit in 2010 could lead to a first-round knockout in four games.
(3) Chicago Bulls vs. (6) Milwaukee Bucks
Head-to-Head: 3-1, Bulls
Matchup to Watch: Jimmy Butler vs. Khris Middleton
Relevant Injuries:
BULLS – Taj Gibson probable for Game 1 (shoulder), Kirk Hinrich (shoulder) and Joakim Noah (hamstring) questionable for Game 1.
BUCKS – Damien Inglis and Jabari Parker out for the season.
Key Stats:
BULLS – Lineups featuring Nikola Mirotic and two of Taj Gibson, Pau Gasol, and Joakim Noah were outscored by 23 points in 279 combined minutes this season.
BUCKS – After beginning the season 30-23, the team went just 11-18 after the All-Star break.
Storylines:
BULLS – Chicago is finally fully healthy, confident it can live up to optimistic preseason expectations of championship contention. But first Derrick Rose and company need to get past scrappy Milwaukee, a team that’s struggled following a midseason roster shakeup. Will they? It’s likely, but hardly guaranteed.
The Bucks are the most underrated defensive team in basketball, subsisting on a hyper-aggressive help and recover scheme to goad opponents into mistakes and take advantage of its length. But the Bulls boast nuanced, confident playmakers at all levels of the floor, and Pau Gasol absolutely roasted them during the regular season – he had 46 points and 18 rebounds in the teams’ January meeting. Those realities combined with Chicago’s presumed uptick on the defensive end make it a clear favorite in this series. If Milwaukee wins a game or two at Bradley Center, though, this could get interesting very quickly.
BUCKS – Milwaukee gave up the second fewest points per possession this season. If they were matched up against a Bulls team from yesteryear, this could spell doom for the Chicago favorites, but the Bulls are No. 10 in points per possession; they can fill it up with Pau Gasol running elbow screens and a sorta-kinda healthy Derrick Rose. Milwaukee has a new point guard in Michael Carter-Williams and only went 11-18 after dealing Brandon Knight to Phoenix.
But Kidd’s squad also has the Greek Freak and a suffocating defense that’s No. 2 in the league in points off turnovers. If they can get the Bulls to cough it up (Chicago’s in the middle of the pack for team turnover percentage), and get a strong effort from Giannis and Khris Middleton (who absolutely needs to win his matchup with a dinged up Jimmy Butler), then this could be the first-round upset that ends Tom Thibodeau’s reign in Chicago.
(4) Toronto Raptors vs. (5) Washington Wizards
Head-to-Head: 3-0, Raptors
Matchup to Watch: Kyle Lowry vs. John Wall
Relevant Injuries:
WIZARDS – Garret Temple (hamstring) out until mid-April, Otto Porter (ankle) questionable for Game 1.
RAPTORS – none
Key Stats:
RAPTORS – Starting center Jonas Valanciunas played in the fourth quarter of only 57 of his 80 games, averaging 5.1 minutes per appearance.
WIZARDS – The team’s 100.0 defensive rating ranked fifth-best in the NBA.
Storylines:
RAPTORS – This’ll pit the league’s No. 5 defense (Washington) against the No. 3 offense (Toronto). Wall is a Defensive First Team candidate, and his one-on-one battles with Lowry are going to be the fulcrum by which the series swings. Sure, Paul Pierce thinks Toronto is no big thing, but they throttled the Wizards in their first meeting of the season in November and won two close ones in the new year. Toronto has home-court, too, and the Air Canada Centre crowd will buttress Kyle Lowry’s scrappy, emotional game. Pierce might revel at the chance to knock down some huge shots on the road, especially after what he said about Toronto, but this series may come down to a Game 7, and Toronto won’t be looking to lose their second consecutive Game 7 at home. This could have the makings of the finest first-round series of the NBA Playoffs, so it’s a toss-up who comes out on top.
WIZARDS – Will Wall rebound from a dismal shooting showing in his first playoff go-round to live up to his status as franchise player? Lowry certainly won’t make it easy, but Washington’s point guard must do better than 36.6 percent from the field this postseason for Washington to beat Toronto. The Raptors are no juggernaut, of course, and not even the legitimate title contender their early season success suggested. But DeMar DeRozan is playing his best basketball of the season, and Air Canada Centre will be rocking for major home court advantage. There’s no telling who will move on from this series due to up-and-down natures of both squads, but there’s a feeling Wall needs to be its best player for the Wizards to advance – Dwane Casey’s team has too much quality depth for Washington to survive any other outcome.
(1) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans
Head-to-Head: 3-1, Warriors
Matchup to Watch: Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut vs. Anthony Davis
Relevant Injuries:
WARRIORS – David Lee (back) questionable for Game 1.
PELICANS – none.
Key Stats:
WARRIORS – Though the team’s +828 point margin led the league, it was outscored by 92 points in the 1,333 minutes it played without Steph Curry.
PELICANS – Tyreke Evans’ 940 drives to the basket were the most in the NBA.
Storylines:
WARRIORS – The best record in the NBA; tied for the most single-season wins by an NBA team over the last 15 years; the presumptive MVP; a first-year coach that’s anything but wet behind the ears; plus two of the top choices for Defensive Player of the Year in Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green. Yeah, the Pelicans are finally healthy, and Anthony Davis has the NBA record for PER at the ages of 19, 20 and 21 after going over the 30.0 mark this season. But the Warriors are just so freakin’ good. They’ll win this in four or five games unless Brow goes nuclear twice in New Orleans, a possibility Dray and Bogut surely won’t allow in consecutive contests.
PELICANS – Congratulations on the playoffs, New Orleans! Now have fun with the league’s best team!
The Pelicans don’t have a realistic chance to win this series. Golden State is just too effective on either side of the ball for Monty Williams’ team to act anything more than a small thorn in its side. But a fully healthy and peaking New Orleans squad has the individual talent alone to win a game against the Warriors, and Smoothie King Center will no doubt be live for Games 3 and 4, too. If Davis performs like the best player on the floor, Evans starts to cook, or Ryan Anderson gets hot from deep, the Pelicans could have their first playoff victory since the re-brand. And against a team like Golden State, that would be a major big-picture development all by itself.
(2) Houston Rockets vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
Head-to-Head: 3-1, Rockets
Matchup to Watch: Jason Terry, Pablo Prigioni vs. Rajon Rondo
Relevant Injuries:
ROCKETS – Donatas Montiejunas and Patrick Beverley are out for the season.
MAVS – Chandler Parsons (back) Questionable for Game 1.
Key Stats:
ROCKETS – The team went 8-2 with its starting frontcourt of Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard available this season.
MAVS – Rick Carlisle’s current starting lineup had a net rating of -3.8 during the regular season.
Storylines:
ROCKETS – James Harden finally has a healthy Dwight Howard back, and it’s clear Harden’s big man is willing to concede the majority of offensive touches to a candidate for 2015 NBA MVP. The loss of Donatas Montiejunas almost cancels out Howard, but he’s still just a fraction of the presence Dwight can bring on the defensive side of the ball. The Rockets only gave up 97.0 points per 100 possessions during Howard’s 41 games (over 1200 minutes) on the court this season. Not a huge sample size, but Howard still has the best net rating on the squad and he’s got a solid (i.e. over 1) defensive real plus-minus. Tyson Chandler is no slouch on the defensive end, but he’s a far cry from 2013’s DPOY. Dirk Nowitzki is old, and Rajon has floundered for stretches alongside an inconsistent Monta Ellis. Yes, Terry is getting more reps than Houston fans would like, but Harden attracts so much attention on the offensive end, Jet could be a plus with his spot-up shooting. The Rockets should survive this first-round opponent, but it’s not gonna be easy at all.
MAVS – It’s easy to overlook due to Harden’s offensive excellence, but the Rockets actually make more hay on the other end: – their 100.5 defensive rating ranked sixth in the league. Will the Mavericks be able to score enough to keep pace with Houston? Individual talent suggests it, but certainly not team performance since Dallas acquired Rondo in December. But the team is finally back to full health and Nowitzki has looked like something close to his old self in April after a dispiriting March. Rick Carlisle’s matchup genius can’t be overlooked, either, and actually accounts for a much of the Mavs’ optimism heading into this series. If Dallas wins the coaching battle and shoots the ball well, it absolutely has a chance to beat Houston. Considering Harden’s sweeping brilliance and Rondo’s obvious struggles, though, the other outcome seems most likely.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6) San Antonio Spurs
Head-to-Head: 2-2
Matchup to Watch: Chris Paul vs. Tony Parker
Relevant Injuries:
SPURS – Tiago Splitter (calf) and Matt Bonner (calf) questionable for Game 1.
CLIPPERS – Austin Rivers (illness) questionable for Game 1.
Key Stats:
SPURS – The team shot a league-high 49.3 percent on drives to the basket this season.
CLIPPERS – J.J. Redick averaged 19.6 points per game with a true shooting percentage of 62.5 after the All-Star break.
Storylines:
CLIPPERS – The Clippers should not be considered favorites because San Antonio is the defending NBA Champion and Gregg Popovich is the Michael Jordan of coaching; cool story, Glenn. Will Tim Duncan bamboozle DeAndre Jordan? Will Hack-a-Jordan work as well as it appeared to during the regular season when DJ went 10-for-28 from the stripe? Well, the Clippers won that game, so we’re not sure Popovich breaks it out unless they fall behind early.
LA is no pushover, and Paul would gladly hand back all his State Farm money for one chance to play for a title. LA scored more points per possession this season than any other team, and Jamal Crawford is back for that Jolt Cola off the bench. Matt Barnes is shooting over 36 percent from three, after his abysmal opening to the season. Plus, Blake has returned after a mid-season injury sabbatical, and Paul would probably win his first MVP if Curry and Harden hadn’t relegated him to the All-NBA Second Team this season. Redick has been a revelation after injuries sidetracked him last season. This — along with the Raptors-Wizards opening round – could go the distance. If San Antonio is a legit threat to repeat for the first time in franchise history, getting past the Clippers will be a monumental first-round obstacle for them to overcome.
SPURS – Remember when Popovich said that his team would “never play better” than it did during the 2014 Finals? Us neither.
Concerns over the Spurs’ substandard performance this season seem a long, long way off after they emerged as arguably the best team in basketball since early March. Kawhi Leonard is one of the league’s 10 best players; a suddenly spry Parker resembles his normally excellent self; Duncan won’t stop churning out rare two-way impact; and San Antonio’s supporting cast has rounded into form. If matched up with any team but the Clippers or Warriors in round one, we’d be fully confident that the defending champs would advance to the Conference Semifinals no worse for wear.
But Los Angeles is the West’s third-best team, and there’s an argument to be made they possess this series’ two best players. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts, of course, but the Rivers’ squad boasts the talent, nuance, and experience of a potential champion. If Paul stymies Parker, will Leonard and San Antonio’s beautiful motion offense be enough to compensate? They better be for the team to keep pace with the Clippers.
(4) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (5) Portland Trail Blazers
Head-to-Head: 4-0, Grizzlies
Matchup to Watch: Mike Conley vs. Damian Lillard
Relevant Injuries:
BLAZERS – Nicolas Batum (knee), Chris Kaman (back), CJ McCollum (ankle) questionable for game 1, Arron Afflalo (shoulder) out until at least late-April, Dorrell Wright (hand) out until at least early May, Wesley Matthews out for the year.
GRIZZLIES – Tony Allen (hamstring), Mike Conley (foot) questionable for Game 1.
Key Stats:
BLAZERS – Damian Lillard made 61.8 percent of his shots in the restricted area this season, over 12 points better than his 2013-2014 mark.
GRIZZLIES – Mike Conley’s 117 points in the clutch were the league’s seventh-most this season, achieved with a true shooting percentage of 59.8.
Storylines:
BLAZERS – This is not how it was supposed to be. Portland was 41-19 and riding high off Afflalo’s acquisition and Robin Lopez’s return to the lineup back in early March, fully confident of its place in the Western Conference hierarchy. But Wes Matthews’ subsequent injury sent the Blazers into a tailspin from which they can’t get out, and things seem to be getting worse when they need to get better.
Sapped of any viable wing depth without Matthews and Afflalo, an even bigger onus will fall on the shoulders of Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. While both All-Stars are equipped to handle it with aplomb in a vacuum, Portland’s matchup against Memphis complicates matters. The Grizzlies have the requisite defensive talent to bother Lillard off the bounce, and Dave Joerger will be happy letting Aldridge try to shoot his squad to victory via an unhealthy diet of mid-range jumpers. Health hasn’t doomed the Blazers yet, but it no doubt will against Memphis. Even though the Grizzlies are hobbled, too, their state of repair is superior enough to Portland’s for them to be considered favorites.
GRIZZLIES – The battle of the most banged up! It would be easy to feel sorry for Memphis. Their backcourt of Tony Allen and Conley isn’t fully healthy, and Marc Gasol tweaked his ankle in the final week. But Portland is even more battered, as you can see from all the questionable players for Game 1. Z-Bo could feast on LaMarcus Aldridge and his hand brace. Robin Lopez is a dependable NBA starter at center, but Gasol is probably the best 5 in the NBA these days, depending on who you ask about DMC. Because of all the injuries, Memphis was just 16-13 after the All-Star break, and Portland was even worse at 15-14. Health matters, as these two West teams can attest. So how to make sense of these short-handed squads smack dab in the middle of a loaded Conference?
The Blazers can still light it up from outside, but Afflalo and Wesley Matthews would have gone a long way towards turning that into a lopsided advantage. Then again, Memphis allowed the fourth-fewest points in the NBA this season, and if Conley can control the pace, and keep Dame in check, the Grizzlies have a good chance to advance. Plus, their injuries are more of the nagging sort rather than the very real absences of Afflalo and Wes. Whoever can keep it together with so many hurting will win the series, and Memphis is hurting just a little less.
