The NBA is in a conundrum tonight. We’re not talking about all the playoff implications surrounding the final games of the 2014-15 NBA regular season, but a specific game between two teams with a huge incentive to lose. With tanking talk reaching crescendo in recent years, tonight’s game between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers stands as a lodestone for NBA analysts who want to revamp the Draft Lottery. Both teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs, but the Heat could lose their first-round pick to the Sixers if they win tonight’s game against them.
The Heat were eliminated from the playoffs when the Indiana Pacers won in double overtime over the Wizards Tuesday night. Miami currently stands at No. 10 in the Eastern Conference. Their first-round pick this year is top-10 protected. If it falls outside of the top 10, it goes to the Sixers. That’s where it gets nefarious, especially if you expect your team to compete each night, even the last night of the regular season when they’ve already been eliminated from playoff contention.
If the Heat win and the Nets lose, Miami would tie with Brooklyn for No. 10 in the East. An actual coin flip (no joke) would determine who gets the No. 10 and 11 picks in the NBA Draft Lottery. Since the odds are enormously low a team behind Miami or Brooklyn stands a chance of dropping into the top 3 of the lottery, the loser of this coin clip will likely get the No. 11 pick.
If Miami loses to the Sixers, there’s no way Brooklyn can tie them for the No. 10 spot in the East, and there’s no chance at a coin flip. Miami keeps their No. 10 pick and Philadelphia is left to use their smorgasbord of second-round picks, their own first-rounder, the Lakers’ first rounder (if it falls outside the top 5) and Oklahoma City’s first rounder (if if falls outside the top 18).
But if Miami wins, depending on the outcome of the Nets game — which Brooklyn’s trying to win to overcome the Pacers for the final playoff spot (more on Indiana and Brooklyn later) — they could drop to No. 11 in the East and lose their pick to Philadelphia.
If the Sixers lose, and the Knicks win (no sure thing at all), they could tie the Knicks for the second-worst record in the NBA, giving them a much better chance at No. 1.
Neither team wants to win tonight. This is why there are proponents of an NBA Draft Lottery overhaul. Fans in Philadelphia might be actively cheering on the Heat, in the hopes their team gets better odds in the Lottery, and picks up Miami’s No. 11 pick.
The top-10 protection for Miami’s pick carries over into 2016, and is left unprotected in 2017. For Philly, the No. 11 this year — in a pretty deep draft — is better than a possible pick farther outside the top 10 next year, or an uncertain pick in 2017 — when the Heat might do a lot better.
Welcome to the NBA in 2015.
