Stanley Johnson’s Explosive Preseason Debut Will Thrill The Analytics Crowd

Stanley Johnson isn’t a typical 19-year-old. And during the first game of his NBA career, the Detroit Pistons rookie showed that reality extends to the court as much as it does his mental and physical maturity.

The No. 8 pick of the 2015 draft scored 26 points on 8-of-17 shooting in his team’s 115-112 loss to the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night. He grabbed three rebounds, dished four assists, swiped two steals, and committed six turnovers, coming off the bench at small forward behind Marcus Morris to play a team-high 34 minutes – and even start the second half at point guard.

Bu those stellar box score statistics, miscues notwithstanding, still don’t do Johnson’s performance justice. The comfort he displayed in his professional debut was nothing short of eye-popping. In a league where the importance of nuance and general understanding has never loomed larger, rookies easily get lost in the shuffle; if impressions from his first NBA action are any indication, that fate won’t befall the Arizona product.

Though Stan Van Gundy’s first season at the helm in Detroit didn’t place an utmost premium on expected shot efficiency, the Pistons’ czar made moves this summer that suggest his second one absolutely will. He made up for the free agency departure of Greg Monroe by trading for Ersan Ilyasova, ushering in the four-out, one-in ethos that came to define his tenure with the Orlando Magic – and best utilizes the talents of franchise cornerstones Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. Detroit, basically, will live and die offensively from beyond the arc and at the rim in 2015-16.

Johnson made three of his six tries from deep and connected on seven of nine free throw attempts against Indiana. That blend of aggression is rare, and no doubt indicative of why Van Gundy surprised some by choosing the Southern California native over fellow wing prospect Justise Winslow. But Johnson didn’t only take good shots on Tuesday; just as important is that he avoided bad ones almost entirely.

One exhibition game doesn’t make a season, let alone a career. And it certainly bears mentioning that many of Johnson’s points came against players who won’t see meaningful playing time, if any at all, once the regular season tips-off in late October.

But if Johnson’s stroke is improved enough for him to be a reliable threat from three-point range, he should be considered something close to favorite for Rookie of the Year. He plays with a confidence normally reserved for established veterans, and has the combination of strength and burst needed to effectively attack aggressive close-outs – something he should see frequently in the Pistons’ space-heavy half-court scheme.

Efficiency is all the rage in basketball. And whether or not Johnson plays with that reality in mind or it’s simply a byproduct of his natural style, Detroit is primed to reap the benefits of it both this season and beyond.

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