We’re a game into the second round of the Western Conference Playoffs, and one game has played out exactly as we thought it would, while the other did pretty much exactly the opposite. But the Warriors and Clippers still have to win three more times to make it to the Conference Finals, while the Rockets and Grizzlies are faced with the tough task of getting back off the mat after a serious knockdown.
There’s still uncertainty swirling around both series, so like we did with the Eastern Conference, we’re going to identify the three biggest questions that each Western Conference Semifinal matchup will need to answer before a winner is decided.
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
1. How much, and how well, can Mike Conley play? Steph Curry is the MVP, officially now, and he remains a uniquely devastating offensive force. Suffice to say, Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes aren’t a match for him. Mike Conley is an above-average defender at the point guard position, and while he won’t lock down Curry (no one can), he can do enough so that the entire Grizzlies defense doesn’t have to contort itself to check him.
For Memphis to have any shot at an upset, they’re going to need to slow down Golden State’s offense, because they sure as hell can’t outscore the Warriors. The Grizzlies’ best defensive lineup of Conley, Courtney Lee, Tony Allen, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol is as well-equipped as any group to do the job, provided Z-Bo does a better job closing out Draymond Green than he did in Game 1. But without Conley, the whole thing falls apart. And that’s without mentioning what he brings to their offense. Conley says he’s playing in Game 2, but A) it’s still not a sure thing, and B) playing won’t be enough — he’s going to have to be a difference-maker.
2. Can Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol dominate inside? The Grit ‘n Grind Grizzlies don’t work if they can’t dominate the paint. Z-Bo and Big Spain were good enough on offense in Game 1, combining for 41 points on over 50 percent shooting, 18 rebounds and 8 assists. But if Conley is still out, or isn’t healthy enough to score, the two bigs will need to do even more. Z-Bo especially needs to push around Draymond Green on the inside. It’s easier said than done, but at the very least, forcing Green to expend lots of energy absorbing Randolph’s girth might sap his legs and kill his outside shot.
That’s important because it doesn’t seem like Randolph is quick enough to show against a Curry/Green pick-and-pop and recover to contest Green’s three-pointers, of which he nailed three of his first four. After that (and it might be because of Z-Bo tiring him out, or it might not), he was only 1 for his next four. But when the fourth-best three-point shooter in the starting five hits 50 percent, that’s a long night. Hopefully Conley can return to lessen Randolph’s defensive responsibilities so he can stick closer to Green and bother his release, which is still slow. Gasol did well against Bogut on defense in Game 1, but he needs to play like the MVP candidate he was in the early season on offense to lead Memphis to victory.
3. Can the Grizzlies find any perimeter shooting? Three-pointers are not Memphis’ game, but if the Warriors keep putting up 13-28 performances like they did in Game 1, the Grizzlies will have to keep pace somewhat, and 3-12 is not going to cut it. Courtney Lee is easily Memphis’ best outside shooter, and he’ll need to turn in at least one red-hot shooting night before the series is over.
Perhaps with reduced minutes, Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes will be able to give more than the combined 3-11 from the field they put up in Game 1. And it’s great to see Vince Carter still out here in the playoffs, but if he’s really going to be their swingman off the bench, he will need to get hotter from the outside than he’s been in months. It’s a tall order. And yes, all three of these questions have been directed at the Grizzlies. That’s because the Warriors can win the title without changing a single thing they’ve been doing so far.
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
1. Can the Rockets solve their DeAndre Jordan problem? During the regular season, James Harden averaged 10 free-throw attempts per game. In the Rockets’ two wins against the Clippers in the regular season, he averaged 15 attempts. In their two losses, he averaged five, and he attempted six freebies in their Game 1 embarrassment against L.A. DeAndre Jordan deters Harden from driving as much as any center in the NBA, as Harden only attempted five shots from within four feet of the rim all season against the Clippers. Obviously, a fouled shot that doesn’t go in doesn’t count as an attempt, but it’s still very low for him.
With the knowledge that Harden doesn’t like to drive on DeAndre, Doc Rivers has JJ Redick guarding James extremely tight on the perimeter, denying jump shots and forcing bad passes. The game plan worked to perfection in Game 1, forcing nine turnovers from Harden in addition to the reduced scoring output. To compensate for their star being locked down, the Rockets’ perimeter shooters will have to knock down threes at a better rate than 8-27 (Harden was 3-6 from deep). On the other end, Jordan’s presence as a target for lobs and as an offensive rebounder forces Dwight Howard to stay at home instead of helping on Blake Griffin. That begs the second question of this series.
2. How do the Rockets contain Blake Griffin? Without Chris Paul, Blake Griffin was forced to do everything on offense for the Clippers, and he did it: 26 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists and a suffocating performance on both Rockets power forwards, Terrence Jones and Josh Smith. Griffin completely demoralized Jones, who couldn’t do anything to slow Blake down and lost all confidence on offense; Kevin McHale only played his starting power forward 16 minutes. No matter what the Clippers get from CP3 in this series, they will turn to Griffin to take over the game until the Rockets respond.
Josh Smith has the size and the athleticism to match up with Blake in theory, and he is normally a plus defender, but for whatever reason, he couldn’t contain Griffin either. Maybe it was part of the glaring lack of energy and focus the Rockets displayed from top to bottom in Game 1, but if it wasn’t, then there aren’t any answers for Houston. Griffin is such a gifted passer that sending extra help at him creates huge holes everywhere else — how else do you explain Matt Barnes and Austin Rivers combining for 37 points? The Rockets will just have to play harder and better than they did in Game 1 all over the floor, but especially on Blake.
3. What will the Clippers get from Chris Paul? The Clippers’ shocking win in Game 1 was fantastic, and it shifted the dynamic of the series dramatically, but no one believes the Rockets will play that poorly going forward. Doc says Paul is “50-50” for Wednesday’s Game 2, but if he doesn’t play, the Clippers will be at just as much of a disadvantage as they were heading into Game 1.
If and when he comes back, he will be dangerous, and he will make the Clippers’ offense even better. But if he can’t go at full strength, he could very likely be a liability on defense like he was in the second half of Game 7 against the Spurs. When healthy, he’s as good a defender at the point guard position as there is in the league, but there’s no way he’ll be fully healthy. Luckily, the Rockets don’t have a point guard younger than 37, so they can’t punish him too harshly. But Austin Rivers, for all of his faults on the offensive end, is a long and active defender who had four steals in Game 1. Paul is going to have to be at his best offensively to make up the difference.
No one’s betting against CP3 at this point, but hamstrings are tricky things, and the Clippers can’t afford to have him aggravate it and lose him for an extended period. Game 1 was nice, but it’s not all that repeatable, and even if they can get through Houston without CP3, there’s a strong chance they’ll run into Golden State in the Western Conference Finals, and Austin Rivers isn’t getting it done against the Warriors.
(All stats courtesy of NBA.com)
