Breaking Down Your Team’s Chances In The 2012 NBA Draft Lottery

05.30.12 5 years ago
NBA Draft Lottery

As we have been bringing up in our NBA Draft Profiles, the conversation around this year’s draft has changed from being one of the best in the last 25 years to the “Anthony Davis Draft”. So who will land the coveted No. 1 pick that will bring the unibrow savior to their team? The answer will be revealed on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET tonight, but to know where each lottery team stands, here is a breakdown of their odds at landing a high pick.

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Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 25 percent
No. 2 Pick – 21.47 percent
No. 3 Pick – 17.72 percent
Any top-3 pick – 64.19 percent

Representative: General Manager Rich Cho
Cho represented the Seattle SuperSonics in 2007 when they were able to get the second pick which they used to draft Kevin Durant.

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 19.9 percent
No. 2 Pick – 18.78 percent
No. 3 Pick – 17.06 percent
Any top-3 pick – 55.74 percent

Representative: Owner Ted Leonsis’s son, Zach, who is the manager of business development for Monumental Sports and Entertainment, which owns the Wizards along with NHL’s Washington Capitals and WNBA’s Washington Mystics.

Zach has some good luck charms to get and bring back the No. 1 pick to D.C.

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 19.9 percent
No. 2 Pick – 18.78 percent
No. 3 Pick – 17.06 percent
Any top-3 pick – 55.74 percent

Representative: Owner Dan Gilbert‘s son, Nick, will try and get the No. 1 pick again.

The Cavs are being very superstitious and are bringing everyone who went to last year’s lottery to this year’s. Kyrie Irving, as well as Josh Cribbs and Joe Haden of the Cleveland Browns, and Browns legend, Bernie Kosar, will be part of the Cavs’ entourage.

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 13.7 percent
No. 2 Pick – 14.16 percent
No. 3 Pick – 14.47 percent
Any top-3 pick – 42.33 percent

The Hornets have the Minnesota Timberwolves pick as well; here are their chances with that pick:

No. 1 Pick – 1.10 percent
No. 2 Pick – 1.3 percent
No. 3 Pick – 1.57 percent
Any top-3 pick – 3.97 percent

Representative: Head Coach Monty Williams
According to a report in the Times-Picayune, this will just be the second time Williams has watched the lottery. The first and last time was in 1997 when as a player, Williams watched the Spurs get the No. 1 pick that turned into Tim Duncan.

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 7.6 percent
No. 2 Pick – 8.44 percent
No. 3 Pick – 9.46 percent
Any top-3 pick – 25.5 percent

Representative: Owners Gavin and Joe Maloof are sending their reality “star” sister, Adrienne Maloof-Nassif. Expect to see the 2012 NBA Draft lottery on next season’s Real Housewives of Beverly Hills.

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 7.5 percent
No. 2 Pick – 8.33 percent
No. 3 Pick – 9.36 percent
Any top-3 pick – 25.19 percent

Representative: Irina Pavlova, President of Mikhail Prokhorov‘s Onexim Sports & Entertainment USA.
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports is reporting that even if the Nets get the No. 1 pick and draft Anthony Davis, that would not convince Deron Williams to stay. But if they use that pick to get Dwight Howard that might make D-Will stick around.

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Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 3.6 percent
No. 2 Pick – 4.16 percent
No. 3 Pick – 4.9 percent
Any top-3 pick – 12.66 percent

If not a top-7 pick, it could belong to the Utah Jazz because of last year’s Deron Williams trade.

Representative: General Manager Bob Myers
Despite their low chances of getting a top-3 pick, the Warriors have faith that their unique good luck charms will do the trick. From the San Francisco Chronicle:

Co-owner Peter Guber, general manager Bob Myers and team spokesman Raymond Ridder are arriving in Times Square with good luck charms that seem to be lessening the pressures of the all-or-nothing lottery, if not actually increasing their chances.

Guber was given a massive tooth from a great white shark several years back. He said it’s much larger than the normal size, measuring almost 3 inches in length and weighing nearly 2 pounds.
He started believing in the lucky powers of the tooth when he and Joe Lacob‘s “underdog” ownership group outbid Larry Ellison for the Warriors in 2010. It may have had something to do with a film he produced, “The Kids Are All Right,” winning the Golden Globe in 2010, too.

“It brought me the Warriors, so why can’t it bring the Warriors a pick?” Guber said.

Guber will make sure Myers rubs the tooth before Wednesday, when the new general manager will represent the team on the 14-team dais. Myers was still taking suggestions for his good luck charm Monday, but he’s leaning toward bringing an American Indian coin.

The coin was given to the Warriors by Cache Creek Casino Resort chairman Marshall McKay, who lives in the Yocha Dehe tribal community and speaks to the coin’s propitious powers.
“I’m open to more suggestions, but this seems pretty serious. If it works, it’s even more serious,” Myers said.

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 3.5 percent
No. 2 Pick – 4.05 percent
No. 3 Pick – 4.77 percent
Any top-3 pick – 12.32 percent

Representative: Head Coach Dwane Casey
Could the Raps actually get the No. 1 pick? It is possible:
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Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – 1.7 percent
No. 2 Pick – 2.00 percent
No. 3 Pick – 2.40 percent
Any top-3 pick – 6.10 percent

Representative: Point Guard Brandon Knight
According to Tom Ziller of SB Nation this is a terrible idea as he said last year: “Sending last year’s top pick never works; witness: Tyreke Evans repped the Kings last year (2010), and Sacramento fell two spots.”

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – .8 percent
No. 2 Pick – .95 percent
No. 3 Pick – 1.15 percent
Any top-3 pick – 2.90 percent

If the Nets don’t get a top-3 pick, the Blazers will get it because of the mid-season Gerald Wallace trade.

Representative: Guard Wesley Matthews
With no GM, a lot is still up in the air for the Blazers, but at least Matthews is excited to be representing the team at the lottery, tweeting out this morning: “Undrafted to representing #ripcity at the lottery. Let’s go! #ThankYouGod”

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – .7 percent
No. 2 Pick – .83 percent
No. 3 Pick – 1.01 percent
Any top-3 pick – 2.54 percent

Representative: GM John Hammond

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – .6 percent
No. 2 Pick – .71 percent
No. 3 Pick – .87 percent
Any top-3 pick – 2.18 percent

Representative: Vice President of Player Programs, Mark West

Chance of getting the:
No. 1 Pick – .5 percent
No. 2 Pick – .59 percent
No. 3 Pick – .72 percent
Any top-3 pick – 1.81 percent

Representative: Forward Chandler Parsons
Despite their extremely slim chances, Parsons tweeted this out yesterday:
“Off to NYC to get the number 1 pick with my brother.@HoustonRockets”

Who do you think will get the No. 1 pick?

Follow Ananth on Twitter at @Ananth_Pandian.

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