2016-17 Record: 33-49
Players Added:
Dennis Smith Jr. (Draft), Jeff Withey (FA), Josh McRoberts (Trade via MIA), Gian Clavell (FA), Maximilian Kleber (FA), Johnathan Motley (FA, two-way), Brandon Ashley (FA), Maalik Wayns (FA), P.J. Dozier (FA)
Players Lost:
Nicolas Brussino (Waived), A.J. Hammons (Trade to MIA), DeAndre Liggins (Trade to HOU)
Projected Team MVP: Harrison Barnes
Harrison Barnes is going be the Mavericks’ MVP this season largely by default. Not to take anything away from Barnes, but he just doesn’t have a ton of competition here. The Mavericks are a bit heavy on each end of the age spectrum. They’ve got aging veterans in Dirk Nowitzki, J.J. Barea, and Wesley Matthews to go along with young potential studs like Dennis Smith and Nerlens Noel, not to mention the host of undrafted, or lesser known young players the Mavericks signed with the hopes of finding a diamond on the rough. To put it simply, Barnes is really the only Maverick in his prime, and he was one of the best players on their squad last season, so he gets the nod here.
Team X-Factor: Dennis Smith Jr., Nerlens Noel
Depending on how much stock you put into summer league, the Mavericks may have drafted themselves a steal with the 9th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. Most of the Mavericks’ potential this season rests on the shoulders of Dennis Smith Jr.. He was so good in Vegas this summer, giving fans high hopes, and his talent coupled with the fact that he already has an NBA body and elite athleticism leaves the door open for a transcendent rookie year. He may not do that, but I wouldn’t say it’s out of the realm of possibility, either. He’ll be one of the most exciting rookies to watch next season, and has seen his Rookie of the Year odds skyrocket over the summer.
You have to give secondary nod to Nerlens Noel here. Much has been made about Noel’s disastrous contract negotiations that resulted in him signing his qualifying offer to remain a Dallas Maverick for at least one more season, but outside of that nonsense, Noel, the player, still has loads of potential. The Mavericks aren’t necessarily gunning for the playoffs this season, but if they find themselves in contention late in the year, it’ll be because Nerlens Noel and Dennis Smith made significant contributions.
Best Case Scenario:
In most cases, a playoff-seed-or-better would be the desired outcome for a team like the Mavericks, but that isn’t how they played their offseason, and that isn’t in the best long-term interest for the franchise. Mark Cuban and the Mavs took a backseat this summer. They didn’t sign any egregious contracts, they used their roster spots on relatively unknown young players, and all-signs point towards a developmental season in Dallas this year.
With that strategy in mind, the best case scenario for the Dallas Mavericks is pretty straightforward. Develop their youth, give them as many minutes as they can handle, and pray the basketball gods gift them a high draft selection. I’m not going to use the T-word (although Cuban admitted to tanking last year) but at this stage in the Mavericks’ rebuild, they have no business contending for a playoff spot, especially in the highly competitive West. Play the kids and get as high a draft pick as possible.
Worst Case Scenario:
Conversely, the worst case scenario for the Dallas Mavericks this season is actually not all that unlikely. Mark Cuban is a good NBA owner. Rick Carlisle is a great NBA head coach. The roster isn’t horrible, and if nothing else, there are plenty of teams that look a lot worse than the Mavericks on paper.
I don’t think they’ll compete for a playoff spot, because Cuban seems a little too savvy to surrender a top draft pick like that, but something along the lines of the 10th-14th draft slot heading into the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery just wouldn’t be ideal. Not the end of the world, because the Mavericks proved this summer that you can make a really good draft selection at #9, but bringing a top-5 pick back to Dallas would be a much better long-term result.
