NBA Power Rankings: The Warriors Have Fallen, But How Far?

All Power Rankings are compiled from games between Jan. 13-20.

1. San Antonio Spurs (2-0)

After the Cleveland Cavaliers blitzed them to the tune of a 32-20 lead after the first quarter on Thursday night, the Spurs outscored LeBron James and company 79-63. How? With not just the consistently strong two-way performance that’s become a hallmark of Gregg Popovich’s most recent clubs, but a scoring balance that’s typified San Antonio’s nearly two-decade reign near the top of the league.

Tony Parker scored 18 points after the first quarter, a number he’d reached over a full game just six times all season. David West came just a hair below his season-high total with 13 points in the game’s final three quarters. Kawhi Leonard scored 16 points, Tim Duncan had nine, and LaMarcus Aldridge and Manu Ginobili chipped in with six points each.

Oh, and the Spurs forced Cleveland into 41.7 percent shooting and 15 turnovers following the first stanza, too. It was Popovich basketball at its finest, basically, and they managed the same three days later in a 112-83 shellacking of the Dallas Mavericks – with no player on the roster notching more than 29 minutes or less than nine.

Meet the new boss, same as the bold boss. Except San Antonio, somehow, is better than ever.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0)

It’s abundantly clear by now – and has been for years, actually – that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, redundancies and clashing ids be damned, make each other better. The former is shooting 52 percent with the latter on the floor this season, more than seven points higher than when his point guard is on the bench. The latter sports a similar discrepancy; Westbrook’s field goal percentage goes from 46.6 to 42.7 depending on the presence of Durant.

The Thunder, shocker, are loads better when the superstar tandem is wreaking havoc simultaneously. According to NBAwowy, they score 117.9 points per 100 possessions with Durant and Westbrook in the lineup and allow 100.6, good for a +17.3 net rating that would trump the historic marks of San Antonio and the Golden State Warriors. How does Oklahoma City fare with Durant alone? +1.6. With Westbrook flying solo? A much more agreeable +7.2.

We’re not quite sure how Billy Donovan should adjust his rotation to fit those numbers, or if he should at all – there’s a lot of noise. But here’s a foolproof idea gleaned from this on-off data dive for the Thunder’s rookie coach to implement: If both Durant and Westbrook are available, never play a unit that leaves them both on the sideline.

In the 28 games each member of basketball’s most high-octane tandem has appeared since Durant returned from a hamstring strain on Nov. 23, Oklahoma City has played 273 minutes without each MVP candidate on the floor – an average of nearly 10 minutes per game. Some of that time has been accrued when a contest’s outcome no longer hangs in the balance, but certainly not enough of it to explain such a surprisingly high share.

The Thunder’s superstar-less lineups, amazingly, haven’t been downright terrible this season. If Donovan continues playing them at this rate when the stakes rise in April, though, his team surely won’t enjoy that bit of luck.

3. Memphis Grizzlies (3-0)

It’s telling of Memphis’ middling place in the league hierarchy that no player on its roster warrants serious consideration for the Western Conference All-Star team.

It was just a year ago that Marc Gasol was on the MVP periphery and Mike Conley universally heralded as basketball’s most underrated player. It was only mid May when the Grizzlies were up 2-1 on the defending champions, too. Now, though, legitimate hopes of individual accolades and team-wide success in the postseason are long gone.

Memphis is a season-high five games over .500, but still didn’t the show time-honored defensive mettle that’s made it a long-time sub-contender in consecutive single-digit home wins over the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks, and New Orleans Pelicans last week. The Grizzlies’ defensive rating over those three games? 106.4, well below their average season-long number.

Needless to say, Memphis can’t count on Mario Chalmers game-winners and 37-point outbursts from Gasol every night. Just what does this team do at an elite level? We still aren’t sure, and the Grizzlies’ recent play only further cemented that uncertainty – even though it made a dent in the standings.

4. Toronto Raptors (2-0)

The Raptors have won five in a row, are getting consistent production from the bench, and Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are playing the best basketball of their careers. Even better? Toronto is within a month of hosting its first All-Star Weekend in franchise history.

The Raptors, obviously, are having fun. Let’s see if that good humor continues when they embark on a stretch of three straight matchups with likely playoff teams on Wednesday against the Boston Celtics.

5. Boston Celtics (3-1)

Marcus Smart is quietly one of basketball’s worst high-usage shooters. The sophomore guard is making 33.7 percent of his total shots and 21.3 percent of his three-point tries, good for a hideous effective shooting percentage of 38.2. Only Denver Nuggets rookie floor general Emmanuel Mudiay and Philadelphia 76ers hyper athlete Jerami Grant have played as many minutes as Smart and shot worse from the field overall.

In Boston’s 118-113 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, however, its defense-first youngster came alive, scoring 20 points on 8-of-13 shooting and 2-of-4 from beyond the arc. Could this be the beginning of Smart, who’s played only 21 games in 2015-16, breaking out of an extended slump?

The rest of the Eastern Conference sure as hell hopes not. Smart is already an All-Defense caliber defender. Once his performance on the other side of the ball starts catching up, the 20-year-old will be another mini star for the largely anonymous Celtics.

6. New Orleans Pelicans (3-1)

Alvin Gentry’s club lost by two to the Grizzlies on Monday. If the Pelicans had found a way to win just one more possession against Memphis, they’d have gone a perfect 4-0 last week.

Is New Orleans turning the corner? Hope so. We need more excuses to watch Anthony Davis.

7. Portland Trail Blazers (3-1)

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This season should be considered a success whether or not the Blazers make good on encouraging recent play by remaining in the playoff race as spring approaches. Most prognosticators pegged Terry Stotts’ team for the league cellar, but Portland is a merely a below-average outfit instead – one firmly in the space between poor and mediocre.

That’s a win all by itself, and an especially big one when considering the obvious progress of C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe and flashes from guys like Al-Farouq Aminu. The Blazers, with talent on hand and hordes of future draft and salary flexibility, are one of the most well-positioned rebuilding franchises in the league.

But that wouldn’t be the case without Damian Lillard.

In his first season as Portland’s full-fledged alpha dog, the 25 year old has done nothing to suggest he’s unworthy of that distinction. His shooting numbers are down a touch compared to last season as a result of increased attention from opposing defenses and the natural burden associated with a sky-high usage rate, but Lillard has made a key improvement to his game in 2015-16 that’s been mostly overlooked: floor manipulation.

Think of guys like Chris Paul, Steph Curry, and John Wall; they coax mistakes from defenses with eye contact, extra bounces, differing angles, and more nuanced playmaking in the way most point guards don’t – and that often leads to easy looks. Lillard isn’t quite on that level, and likely never will be.

See how he immediately accepts the ICE then forces Marcin Gortat farther down the floor with an additional hesitation step in the clip above? That’s advanced stuff, a subtlety that sets the table for a Meyers Leonard triple, and Lillard creates it all by himself – and finishes it with a lefty behind-the-back bounce pass.

Portland is clearly headed the right direction. And with a playmaker like Lillard behind the wheel, it might get there sooner than most anticipated.

8. Los Angeles Clippers (2-1)

A lack of elite-level play by the Clippers is bound to rob J.J. Redick All-Star consideration. It’s a shame, too, because Los Angeles’ marksman is quietly putting together a season of shooting for the ages – and was even before he erupted for 40 points in his team’s win over the Houston Rockets on Monday night.

Redick leads the league in three-point shooting at an even 50 percent, and his true shooting percentage of 65.5 is second only to Steph Curry’s. But neither of those awesome statistics does the quality of his career-best campaign justice. This one, on the other hand, certainly does: According to Synergy, no player in basketball scores more points per possession than Redick’s 1.22.

Not too shabby.

9. Chicago Bulls (2-1)

Joakim Noah’s season is likely over, and with it an era for the Bulls marked more by optimistic hypotheticals than any meaningful measure of on-court success. The former Defensive Player of the Year is a free agent this summer. Could you imagine Chicago hanging onto him barring a massive hometown discount?

Us neither. Noah is clearly on the downside of his career, and the Bulls’ never-ending chemistry issues – for which he deserves at least some blame, by the way – might have rendered goodwill between he and his long-time team gone forever.

It’s a shame, too. In a different world, Chicago might be working on a new dynasty and Noah would be a Windy City icon of epic proportions. But luck was never quite on the Bulls’ side, an unfortunate reality that began several years ago – and today seems to have finally forced this franchise in a much different direction.

10. Golden State Warriors (2-2)

Apologies to the Milwaukee Bucks and Sacramento Kings; their 3-1 and 2-1 records, respectively, over the last week are better than Golden State’s. After the reigning champions rebounded from their worst loss of the season with their most impressive win, though, we couldn’t leave Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and company on the outside looking in.

Maybe the Spurs are really as good as the Warriors, and perhaps the Cavaliers and Thunder can be when it matters most. But until it’s been proven otherwise, the Larry O’Brien Trophy still goes through Oakland.