NBA ROOKIE WATCH: Malcolm Brogdon Is Already A Solid Veteran For The Bucks


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Rookies are enchanting to teams and fans alike because of their untapped potential. Every good thing they do on the court is a sign of possible future dominance, and every bad thing is an excusable expression of youth. It’s a flavor of excitement altogether different from what LeBron James and Steph Curry can do, because there’s the possibility that what we see can only be the beginning, and it makes us excuse or ignore real shortcomings that make coaches prefer competent 30-year-olds.

Malcolm Brogdon is the rare exception to this.

First of all, he’s 24 years old after playing all four years at the University of Virginia, the leader and star of one of the most disciplined defensive teams in the last decade. Being a four-year player doesn’t always mean a prospect is ready to contribute right away, but it often means that he’ll be expected to. That’s been the case for Brogdon, as increased playing time due to injury has led to a permanent place in the Bucks’ rotation — and for the last few games at least, a starting spot.

Jason Kidd has put his trust in Brogdon to guard primary ballhandlers and run the offense alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the results have been brilliant:

Brogdon isn’t one of the fastest guards in the NBA, but so far he’s faster than his defenders think, and much stronger. His ability to control his body around contact under the rim is advanced for a rookie, no matter how old he is. What stands out about him on offense, however, is his decision-making and passing. He can pass from any part of a drive, often stopping it early when other players would be getting up a head of steam, and sometimes holding his dribble under the basket. He also is great at finding angles to hit the diving man on a pick-and-roll, especially for his size.

It all adds up to a fairly complete player right out of the box. Since Brogdon entered the starting lineup, he has the best net rating of any starter at 2.0. Giannis, who will probably get some down-ballot MVP votes if he keeps his buzz, has been at negative-4.8 in the Bucks’ last 10 games. And for all the talk of the Greek Freak being a supersized point guard, Brogdon leads all starters in assist ratio since he joined that group.

Giannis was the epitome of an exciting rookie — all possibility, waiting to be polished into skill — but Brogdon may very well be a more advanced basketball mind, right now, and that’s who you want distributing the ball the most. After all, he is nicknamed the President.

Honorable Mention: Pascal Siakam

Since we put him all the way up at number two last month for contributing big minutes to the second seed in the East, Siakam has seen his minutes wither away as first Patrick Patterson, then Lucas Nogueira have elevated the Raptors to higher places than they went with Pascal. He hasn’t done much of note in the past month, with a paltry negative-6.1 net rating over the last 15 games, and it’s because he stopped being able to reliably finish at the rim. His effective field goal percentage is down to an unplayable 38 percent, and when Jared Sullinger comes back he may stop playing entirely.

We left him here to thank him for his exciting run, and to remind you to keep an eye on him for next year even as he fades into the background for the veteran Raptors.

5. Domantas Sabonis

Sabonis still has some serious skills, but when the three-pointers dry up as they have in the past month, all of a sudden he’s an undersized, unexperienced power forward again. But on the rare night over that period when he was cooking, Domas showed flashes of being truly special offensively.

Those above-the-break threes are crucial for a team that relies so much on dribble penetration from Russell Westbrook, but just as critical is his ability to finish in creative ways on the pick-and-roll. He doesn’t have the size and athleticism to be a dunker like DeAndre Jordan, but if he can continue to develop the deceptive moves that can baffle recovering defenders in the post (not to mention the strength he showed against Amir Johnson in the video above), he can be a valuable piece. For now, though, the dip in his numbers has dropped him in the ROY race.

4. Jamal Murray

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Just when we couldn’t stop gushing about the guy, Murray has gone ice cold in the last month. Everything we said about his future potential in December is just as true today — he still has a gorgeous shooting motion, a quick and high release, and incredible speed with and without the ball. He still projects to be an elite offensive player, but he’s also still only 19 years old. He’ll have breakdowns of mechanics and awareness, most notably his drives to the rim, which often see Murray putting his blinders on and flinging a wild attempt at the rim when he could be finding an open shooter.

But even as he struggles, he will look for long stretches like he truly belongs out there. He may have more ultimate potential than anyone here besides the number one rookie.

3. Buddy Hield

Hield was picked one spot ahead of Murray in last year’s draft, and for a couple of months there it looked like the Pelicans really goofed up. Hield is 23 years old and looked less ready than Murray at 19, but in the 22 games he’s started this season, he’s shot 46.5 percent from long range.

Is he as bouncy or as fast in transition? Not really, but his release is quick as well, and when you have two shooters to pick between, you should probably pick the one who shoots better. Right now, that’s Hield, and he’s been able to figure out which spots to drift to even before the shots started falling. When he’s cooking, he looks like the prototypical 2-guard:

2. Malcolm Brogdon

The players themselves are very different, but the Rookie of the Year race feels similar to last season in that there’s an obvious number one and a just-as-obvious number two candidate, with very little likelihood of the runner-up catching the leader. There’s still a lot of potential in this rookie class — Dario Saric, Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss all have shown brief signs they can be great, for example — but no one below Brogdon feels like actually a good player on balance right now.

From next year onward, it will be on Brogdon to keep pace while the other kids learn the game.

1. Joel Embiid

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Joel Embiid is a full-fledged superstar on the court and on social media. In both forums, his presence is magnetic, although in quite different ways. But without a doubt, the most impressive thing about Embiid is how he has singlehandedly made the Sixers a viable NBA team. Heck, the Sixers have won six of their last eight games!

Of course, the roster’s got more talent (Ersan Ilyasova, Saric) and certain young players have improved measurably (T.J. McConnell, Nik Stauskas), but Embiid’s on-court/off -court stats are off the charts. He’s the only regular with a positive on-court net rating, and his off-court net rating is the lowest on the team — a 13 points per 100 possessions swing. That’s the difference between the Warriors and the Bulls, or the Spurs and the Pelicans. His scoring numbers are otherwordly, his rim protection numbers are staggering — he might be more impressive at this point in his career than Karl-Anthony Towns was last year, and Towns blew us away.

Enough talk; time for more Embiidography:

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