Our Gambler’s Guide To The Sweet 16 Is Here To Help You Win Big

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The NCAA Tournament rolls into its second week with Sweet 16 games tipping off on Thursday evening. Of the 16 teams to reach the second week, only one is a double-digit seed (No. 11 Xavier), which means if you got too aggressive with picking upsets on the first weekend you probably had a rough go of it.

12 of the 16 top-four seeds remain in the tournament, which means the path to the Sweet 16 has been chalky. Only Xavier, Wisconsin, Michigan and South Carolina have advanced beyond where their seeding would dictate they would go. Three of those teams come into Sweet 16 matchups as underdogs, with the lone exception being Michigan — this year’s apparent team of destiny — sitting as a 1.5-point favorite over Oregon as of Tuesday at William Hill.

I’m here to try and help guide you through these Sweet 16 matchups — all of which having single-digit spreads on them — with a quick look at season trends for each team and a look at where the money is coming in for all eight games.

Note: All lines and wagering information is courtesy of William Hill Sports Books and all betting trends are from TeamRankings.com

No. 7 Michigan (Spread: -1.5, Total: 148) vs. No. 3 Oregon

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Unsurprisingly, this is the game that has had the most action placed on it, with 23 percent of all money wagered so far on Sweet 16 games on this particular matchup. Michigan has become the public’s team thanks to their miraculous run through the Big Ten Tournament and the first two rounds of the NCAA. Oregon struggled to advance past Rhode Island in the second round and the Ducks are without a key piece in Chris Boucher.

All of those factors will lead to Michigan getting 65 percent of all tickets and a ridiculous 87 percent of all money wagered on this game, as the public and sharps have both seemingly hitched their wagons to the Wolverines, at least early on. Michigan suffered a bad beat in their first game of the tournament and are only 17-17 against the spread this season, but the Wolverines are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven games during this hot streak. Oregon is 20-15 ATS this season.

No. 1 Gonzaga (-3, 148.5) vs. No. 4 West Virginia

The Zags are 22-9-1 ATS this year, while the Mountaineers are just 14-16-1. Gonzaga has found itself in a pair of battles to open their NCAA Tournament, but has managed to avoid disaster to this point. The Mountaineers, meanwhile, looked great against Notre Dame in the second round. Those performances have turned the money away from Gonzaga, as 61 percent of all the money wagered on this game has come in on West Virginia’s side, with the tickets split 51/49 to the Bulldogs.

No. 1 Kansas (-5, 157) vs. No. 4 Purdue

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The Jayhawks haven’t been a great ATS team this season, going 13-18-1, while Purdue has been stellar at 19-10-2 ATS. That information is either not known or not bothering bettors, who have gone heavy on the Jayhawks in this game. Possibly swung by Kansas’ dominant performance against Michigan State in the Round of 32, 82 percent of tickets and 90 percent of all money wagered on this game has come in on the Jayhawks. With 20 percent of the entire Sweet 16 money haul coming in on this game, it’s safe to say that the books will be desperate for a Boilermaker cover. If you’re looking for a contrarian pick this weekend, Purdue +5 is the play.

No. 2 Arizona (-7.5, 145) vs. No. 11 Xavier

While the oddsmakers aren’t believers in the Musketeers, bettors are certainly siding with the only real Cinderella remaining in the field. Xavier, which is 17-18 ATS this season, has gotten 61 percent of tickets and 65 percent of money on the spread in this game, as bettors aren’t feeling confident in the Wildcats after they were caught in a bit of a dogfight with St. Mary’s in the second round. While Xavier is a popular play, I’m not sure the public will like the outcome of this game. St. Mary’s was a better team than their 7-seed would suggest and lesser known stature may have indicated, and Arizona (19-14-3 ATS) eventually took care of them by 9 points.

No. 1 North Carolina (-7.5, 153) vs. No. 4 Butler

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Like Xavier-Arizona, this game features a significant spread at 7.5 points and bettors aren’t biting on the better known favorite. The Bulldogs are receiving 60 percent of all tickets and 66 percent of all money at Will Hill, as people are riding with the scrappy Bulldogs that have cruised through Winthrop and Middle Tennessee. North Carolina likely lost steam with the public after nearly getting knocked off by Arkansas, but this is another spot where I’m a bit wary of a publicly backed dog. Butler’s ATS record for the season (19-12) does give some added hope to the +7.5 side, while UNC is 18-15-2.

No. 3 Baylor (-3.5) vs. No. 7 South Carolina

No one likes to bet on Baylor in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears have long been a terrifyingly inconsistent team that bettors feel better simply staying away from than trying to predict. That shows in the low amount that’s come in on this game (only 8 percent of all Sweet 16 money). As of now, the Gamecocks carry a small advantage in money and tickets, with 54 percent of tickets and 57 percent of the money for this matchup. South Carolina is 13-16-2 ATS this season, while Baylor is a run-of-the-mill 15-14. I have a feeling this will continue to be a stay away game for most.

No. 3 UCLA (-1, 166.5) vs. No. 2 Kentucky

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The premier game of the Sweet 16 is UCLA-Kentucky, which is a pair of blue-blood programs with rosters full of future NBA talent. The trends don’t offer much help in separating these teams, as Kentucky is 18-17-1 ATS while UCLA is 17-18 ATS on the season. Vegas can’t find much separation either, offering just a one-point line with UCLA as the slight favorite. The bettors have a clear favorite though, as UCLA has gotten 79 percent of tickets and 81 percent of cash in the early action, although you can expect this to pick up steam with the public as Friday approaches.

No. 4 Florida (-2, 131.5) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin

The lowest point total of the Sweet 16 belongs to the Gators and the Badgers at 131.5 as oddsmakers expect this game to be a slog. That’s not surprising considering Wisconsin’s history, and the early betting public appears to be on Wisconsin at 57 percent of tickets, but the money is on the Gators at 58 percent. Florida is a robust 19-13 ATS this season, while Wisconsin has been a little more hot and cold at 17-16. Surprisingly, this game has the most action of all the Friday games at 14 percent of the Sweet 16 haul so far, as it appears the big money bettors are trying to take advantage of a low number on the Gators.

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