Just when you thought the War on Analytics had reached its tipping point, Paul George had to go and resurrect it. A noted midrange enthusiast, he’s using his stellar play of late, and the Pacers’ winning ways, as an indictment on the league’s preoccupation with statistics. Via Candace Buckner of the Indy Star:
“I’m not a fan of analytics,” said George, who takes 4.9 shots per game from 15-19 feet, second only to Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin for most in the NBA.
“The greatest player to ever play this game was a midrange jump shooter in Michael Jordan,” George continued. “At that time no one had nothing to say. It’s about what’s best for that player and what’s the skill set of that player. We have a lot of guys who are more than capable at shooting well from the midrange. So I don’t know what to say about analytics. It works for some systems. I’m not a believer of analytics. That’s just how it is.”
The only problem is that the Pacers, as an organization, wanted to plant their foot firmly in the analytics camp going into this season. But instead, what happened is that they still have one foot in the grave. Everything they did in the offseason was geared toward playing smaller and pushing the pace, two of the hallmarks of the basketball analytics movement. But a closer inspection of what they’ve actually been doing tells a more complicated story.
So far this season, they rank in the top ten in three-point field goal percentage, but they also still rank in the bottom third in terms of number of attempts per game. Last year, they also ranked around the bottom third in attempts (18th), and ranked 11th overall in their percentage from downtown, so not much has changed in that department.
They’re also not pushing the pace much more so far, despite what they initially outlined this offseason as a concerted effort to do just that (which entailed jettisoning lumbering big man and defensive anchor Roy Hibbert this summer). They’re averaging more than 97 possessions per 48 minutes, but that’s just a few ticks above last season when they averaged 95.5. They’re playing faster, sure, but the rest of the NBA is playing even faster, dropping them even further behind the median for the fast-breaking style they’re trying to implement. That’s evidenced by the fact they’re currently ranked 23rd in pace after ranking 19th last season, despite averaging a couple more possessions per game.
Their defense – a big part of their identity – remained intact last season even without their best perimeter defender in George. They currently rank 9th in terms of their defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) whereas they ranked 8th in that department last season. In other words, their defense isn’t suffering much because they’re not really taking that many more risks, aside from playing decidedly smaller lineups. And that’s a move that’s arguably had a bigger effect offensively than it has defensively because it opens up the floor for George to operate one-on-one.
The other irony is that they’re also not a very good shooting team from the midrange, despite the fact that they lead the league in shot attempts from that territory. Their 36 percent shooting from 15-19 feet ranks 24th overall. And as indicated above, George himself takes the second most shots from that area behind only Griffin. So what accounts for their current hot streak?
Well, unfortunately for Indiana, the schedule might be the most glaring indicator here. Since dropping their first three regular-season games, they’ve won six out of their last seven. And some of those have even been solid wins, including a gritty win over the Heat on November 6. They also won a tough one against the Detroit Pistons on November 3, who were 3-1 to start the season but have fizzled to a 5-5 start since. Then they beat the Celtics twice, who are just barely above .500 at 5-4.
But of the three Western Conference teams they’ve played, they beat only the Minnesota Timberwolves, and they’ve yet to play any of the true contenders out West. And before the turn of the New Year, they’ll only face the Clippers and Spurs on the road. Basically, they have a very accommodating schedule, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep this up, especially if these trends continue.
For all their big talk about joining the modern NBA this season, the Pacers look remarkably similar to their old selves, aside from a few admittedly-bold lineup reconfigurations. That has not, however, included George playing power forward, which was another tactic Indiana had flirted with during the preseason but ultimately discarded once the regular season got underway. Instead, they’ve tasked C.J. Miles and Chase Budinger with picking up the defensive slack at power forward for significant stretches, which is another strategy with a sustainability that seems questionable at best.
Nevertheless, the NBA is a better, more exciting league with Paul’s return to All-Star form. Whether that translates to a certain level of success for the Pacers remains to be seen.
(Via Indianapolis Star)
