2016-17 Record: 61-21 (2nd in West)
Players Added: Jarron Blossomgame (Draft), Matt Costello (FA), Rudy Gay (FA), Darrun Hilliard (FA), Joffrey Lauvergne (FA), Brandon Paul (FA), Derrick White (Draft)
Players Lost: Joel Anthony (FA), Dewayne Dedmon (FA), David Lee (FA), Jonathon Simmons (FA)
Projected Team MVP: Kawhi Leonard
Russell Westbrook averaged a triple-double on the way to the NBA MVP award and James Harden’s ridiculous performance landed him in the No. 2 spot. However, a real case could be made that Kawhi Leonard deserved more consideration and, given the accolades of the two Western Conference guards, that says quite a bit about San Antonio’s superstar forward. By any description, Leonard’s unbelievable performance (25.5 points per game on 49/38/88 shooting) on the offensive end was better than expected but it is, of course, his two-way brilliance that makes the Spurs go.
If Leonard isn’t the best defensive player in the world (hello, Draymond Green and Rudy Gobert), he is certainly on the short list. Because of the massive workload he carries offensively, that is extremely difficult to maintain but, in 2016-2017, Leonard was able to do it and he’ll be asked to put that kind of all-around effort together once again. It is conceivable that his three-point shooting wasn’t fully sustainable but, if anything, there is probably room to grow as a play-maker and Leonard’s overall profile at the age of 26 is quite tantalizing.
Kawhi Leonard will never be the trendiest player in the league or one that dominates the news cycle like Westbrook, Harden, LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Steph Curry. He’s still fantastic and the Spurs need him to be just that.
Team X-Factor: Rudy Gay
The Spurs have some uncertainty at the point guard position, with Tony Parker returning from injury and Dejounte Murray still operating with youth and inexperience. With that said, the return of Patty Mills (on a big-ticket contract) stabilizes things there and, for the most part, this is a Spurs team that returns much of the same parts from a year ago. To that end, the one infusion of outside talent beyond first-round pick Derrick White is veteran forward Rudy Gay.
Gay tore his left Achilles tendon back in January and missed the rest of the 2017-2018 season. That ailment likely opened the path for him to land in San Antonio on something of a discount but, in the same breath, the jury is out on the recovery of a 31-year-old player that has quite a bit of mileage on his body at this point. Could a fully healthy Rudy Gay provide real upside at either forward position? Absolutely, but the fact that the Spurs might actually need him in the absence of Jonathon Simmons is also slightly concerning.
There are better players, like LaMarcus Aldridge and Danny Green, on this roster but Rudy Gay’s effectiveness could be the difference in a Western Conference Finals contender and a second round exit in the stacked West.
Best Case Scenario:
One glance at the Spurs roster from 2016-2017 will produce a reaction of “How in the world did this team win 61 games?” and that is worth noting. Kawhi Leonard is one of the five best players on the planet and Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the world. With that said, there isn’t much upside beyond last season’s spectacular regular season performance (one that still generates respect and admiration for Pop’s work) and, as noted above, the roster is probably worse unless Gay and/or Parker bounce back in a big way.
San Antonio is still fully capable of racking up a win total in the high-50’s and trending toward 60 based on their reputation and the well-oiled machine we know them to be. Can they actually improve from last year? Maybe, but it seems difficult to imagine anything better than a No. 2 finish in the West.
Worst Case Scenario:
What if the roster issues catch up to San Antonio? It is a real possibility that Gay simply can’t recapture his explosiveness following the Achilles injury, Manu Ginobili’s age catches up to him and Tony Parker isn’t Tony Parker (at all) anymore. That trio of events would be, quite obviously, damaging but it also probably would not produce too much panic.
The big concern would be any injury to Leonard, as this is a Spurs team built around one player in a way we haven’t seen since prime Tim Duncan in the early 2000’s. Aside from that doomsday outcome, it is hard to conceive of a situation in which this team wins fewer than 50 games, if only because we just haven’t seen it in decades.
