2017-2018 Utah Jazz Preview: Moving On Without Gordon Hayward


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2016-17 Record: 51-31 (t-4th in West)

Players Added: Tony Bradley (Draft), Eric Griffin (FA), Jonas Jerebko (FA), Donovan Mitchell (Draft), Ricky Rubio (Trade with MIN), Thabo Sefolosha (FA), Ekpe Udoh (FA)

Players Lost: Boris Diaw (FA), Gordon Hayward (FA), George Hill (FA), Trey Lyles (Trade with DEN), Shelvin Mack (FA), Jeff Withey (FA)

Projected Team MVP: Rudy Gobert

Gordon Hayward isn’t walking through that door and that unequivocally hurts the Jazz in 2017-2018. However, there is a coherent argument to be made that it was Rudy Gobert, not Hayward, that was the best player for Utah a season ago. The 7-foot center made an All-NBA team while finishing second to Draymond Green in Defensive Player of the Year balloting and, in short, Gobert was tremendous. He is the best rim protector on the planet and, as an offensive force, has taken great strides including a league-leading 68.1 percent true shooting last season.

While the construct of this year’s team is altered without Hayward, George Hill and others, the numbers are striking when it comes to breaking down what the Jazz look like with and without Gobert on the floor. Last season, the Jazz were 8.1 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents with the “Stifle Tower” on the court. Without him, Utah was outscored by 2.9 points per 100 possessions and, defensively, the team went from dominant to quite porous in his absence.

There is probably a ceiling to the kind of impact Gobert can make offensively but, if anything, his defensive impact is likely underrated despite a number of accolades. There is no debate this year about which player is the most indispensable for Quin Snyder and company.

Team X-Factor: Rodney Hood

Outside of Gobert, there are a number of question marks for the 2017-2018 Jazz. There is a new (and very different) point guard in place with Ricky Rubio, there are injury concerns with Derrick Favors and a number of rotating pieces have come through the door since Utah’s elimination from the playoffs. However, the loss of Gordon Hayward places quite a bit of spotlight on Rodney Hood.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old wing took a step back in deployment a season ago but that won’t be the case this time around. Hood looks to be Utah’s primary wing creator on the offensive end and, in a world in which Rubio is much more of a pure distributor than his predecessor, there will be no shortage of opportunities. The former Duke standout is somewhat one-dimensional in the fact that his scoring output is, by far, his most attractive attribute but Hood absolutely needs to put the ball in the basket on a team chalked full of defense-first players.

Can the Jazz survive without Rodney Hood in the event of injury or ineffectiveness? Absolutely, but the team’s offensive ceiling is quite low if he fails to take the next step in what looks like a pivotal season.

Best Case Scenario:

The Jazz finished third in the NBA in defensive rating (102.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) and that end of the floor looks to be quite stable. If anything, Utah is capable of getting better defensively given their personnel and the potential impact of Rubio at the point of attack. The question, though, is whether the Jazz can sustain the No. 12 offense (107.4 points per 100) from a season ago.

That seems like quite a lofty ask in a post-Hayward world but, if the Jazz are able to maintain a league-average offense while keeping their defense at an elite level, a win total in the high-40’s (or even low 50’s) isn’t crazy to ponder.

Worst Case Scenario:

Aside from what would be a crippling injury to Gobert, the Jazz might simply be bad on the offensive end. Rubio is an all-world passer but his shooting limitations could be exacerbated by the other personnel and, at some point, Snyder could make the defense-first decision to lean heavily on a frontcourt pairing of Gobert and Favors for stability purposes.

With Gobert in the middle, it seems hard to fathom that Utah wouldn’t field a very good defense but, if you squint hard enough (and the team doesn’t get a bump in production from players like Hood, rookie Donovan Mitchell or youngster Dante Exum), it is more conceivable that this could be a bottom-10 offense and that could result in a record that hovers around the .500 mark in the loaded Western Conference.

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