As of now, there are still 14 NBA teams who could emerge victorious in the NBA draft lottery. Some are far more likely than others, but every non-playoff team has a shot. This begs a simple question: Who would each of the 14 lottery contenders take if they nabbed the top overall pick? It’s a loaded draft, without many easy answers. So, let’s look at each team individually, and try to figure out who their most logical choice would be.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder – Lottery Odds: 0.5 percent
It’s a slim chance to be sure, but the Thunder could win the lottery, which would likely make the internet explode. If they do beat the long odds, and grab the first pick, they’ll have options. D’Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay might look attractive as Westbrook insurance if he leaves in two years. Still, a big man seems more likely. The chance to draft Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns would allow Oklahoma City to let Enes Kanter leave in free agency with a potentially better replacement already in tow. Either one would be great, but Towns seems more like a pure center, so he seems like the most logical choice.
The Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns
13. Phoenix Suns – Lottery Odds: 0.6 percent
Drafting Russell or Muddiay would eliminate the need to re-sign Brandon Knight, freeing up tons of cap room where Phoenix could potentially target a big name free agent like Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge (the former of whom would need to opt out). Being that the Suns are in Win Now mode, they’d be more likely to draft Russell, who seems a bit more NBA-ready than Mudiay, who spent last-season overseas, and could be facing the same talent-level adjustment that plagued Dante Exum this past season.
The Pick: D’Angelo Russell
12. Indiana Pacers – Lottery Odds: 0.7 percent
The Pacers are in a difficult situation because they aren’t awful at any position, but unless Paul George comes back at full strength next year, they aren’t loaded anywhere either. You could talk yourself into a franchise point guard, or a franchise big man. With that said, this team is looking to move Roy Hibbert, and the chance to draft Towns or Okafor gives them an easy opportunity to do so.
The Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns
11. Utah Jazz – Lottery Odds: 0.7 percent
With Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, this team is loaded up front, so a big man seems rather unlikely. They could certainly use some help at the point guard spot, though. Dante Exum showed flashes of potential greatness last year, but struggled to understand NBA defensive rotations and the pick and roll that predominates every team’s actions. Meanwhile, Trey Burke has been a disappointment his first two seasons, shooting poorly from the field, and not looking like a quality starting point guard. Mudiay seems unlikely because he could suffer the same growing pains as Exum. Drafting Russell would give them insurance if Exum never pans out, while also rendering Burke expendable.
The Pick: D’Angelo Russell
10. Miami Heat – Lottery Odds: 1.1 percent
A tough choice for a team with a very solid starting five. The Heat will likely bring back Goran Dragic, but the ability to draft Russell or Mudiay would certainly give them the option not to. Bosh and Whiteside are a strong big man combo, but if Whiteside’s character concerns are still a major worry, they might look to Okafor or Towns. Finally, with Luol Deng entering his 12th year in the league, and his health a factor, the Heat could look to draft a small forward in Justise Winslow. Winslow has a ton of potential, and could give an already strong starting five a serious boost.
The Pick: Justise Winslow
9. Charlotte Hornets – Lottery Odds: 1.7 percent
When wondering who the Hornets might take if they win the lottery, one key question emerges: have they given up on Noah Vonleh yet? Vonleh struggled as a rookie, frequently getting injured, and rarely playing even when he was healthy. Meanwhile, Lance Stephenson was an absolute disaster, and he still has two years left. Teaming up Kemba Walker with Russell or Mudiay is interesting, but it certainly possible that Stephenson returns to form next season, and the chance to team up Al Jefferson with Okafor or Towns should be too good to pass up. Okafor seems more capable of playing power forward than Towns, so he looks like the most logical choice here.
The Pick: Jahlil Okafor
8. Detroit Pistons: Lottery Odds: 2.8 percent
Now, here’s a tricky one. The Pistons will face the question of whether or not to bring back Reggie Jackson this summer, while already knowing that Greg Monroe is probably on his way out the door. Replacing Monroe with Okafor and teaming him up with Andre Drummond could create one of the most fearsome frontcourts in the NBA. Russell or Mudiay would make Jackson expendable while also allowing them to rely on the inefficient Brandon Jennings a lot less. Still, Okafor-Drummond seems too frightening to pass up.
The Pick: Jahlil Okafor
7. Denver Nuggets – Lottery Odds: 4.2 percent
There’s a very good chance Ty Lawson gets traded this offseason. Lawson has played well, but on a rebuilding team like the Nuggets, he doesn’t quite fit in, and plenty of contenders are going to want him. Assuming the team brings back Kenneth Faried, they have a solid big man tandem with him and Jusef Nurkic. That means a point guard is the most likely pick. Because this team is likely far from playoff contention, they can afford to take Mudiay, and allow him time to develop.
The Pick: Emmanuel Mudiay
6. Sacramento Kings – Lottery Odds: 6.3 percent
The Kings winning the lottery would likely send shockwaves around the NBA. if the Kings are thinking of trading DeMarcus Cousins, they could do it now, with Okafor or Towns emerging as an immediate replacement. At the same time, this could embolden them to keep Cousins, realizing that teaming him up with either of those players would make for a downright frightening big man tandem. My guess? They keep Boogie for at least another year, team him up with Okafor or Towns, and look for a point guard through trades or free agency.
The Pick: Jahlil Okafor
5. Orlando Magic – Lottery Odds: 8.8 percent
The Magic already have a supremely talented young backcourt in Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. That means the Magic are most likely to look for solutions upfront. There have been rumors of the team targeting a big name free agent like LaMarcus Aldridge, but winning the lottery would allow them to get a much younger player for a far better price. This team’s biggest need is power forward, and teaming Okafor up with Nikola Vucevic would immediately turn the Magic into a playoff contender.
The Pick: Jahlil Okafor
4. Los Angeles Lakers – Lottery Odds: 11.1 percent
We’re still not sure what will become of Julius Randle, who suffered a season-ending injury during Game 1 of the 2014-15 season. Still, one can expect that the Lakers will give him every opportunity to prove himself this season. Where the Lakers are really hurting is the center position, where Tarik Black and Robert Sacre ended up getting a lot of minutes simply because there was no one else around. Towns is a pure center, and a tandem of him and Randle would have a ton of potential.
The Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns
3. Philadelphia 76ers – Lottery Odds: 15.6 percent
Nerlens Noel had an excellent rookie year, and right now, the big question is Joel Embiid. He didn’t play at all last season, and at times, the Sixers weren’t happy with his development. Still, the sight of him dunking through his legs, and draining threes in warmups should be enough to pacify Sixers fans. A big man is unlikely with Embiid and Dario Saric still waiting in the wings. Mudiay, Russell, or Winslow could all be interesting choices. This team is in no hurry to make a playoff run, so they could comfortably take Mudiay and his massive potential without worrying if he puts it all together as a rookie.
The Pick: Emmanuel Mudiay
2. New York Knicks – Lottery Odds: 19.9 percent
Jose Calderon is still on the Knicks roster, and while he’s coming off a sorely disappointing season, he does lessen the immediate need for a point guard. My guess is the Knicks go for either Okafor or Towns in this situation. Because Towns is more of a pure center, and Melo is capable of playing the four, the Kentucky big man seems like the most logical pick.
The Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns
1. Minnesota Timberwolves – Lottery Odds: 25 percent
The most likely lottery winner presents us with one of the greater conundrums. On paper, Minnesota has a solid backcourt with Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin, but neither of them might be long for the Timberwolves. Up front, they have two quality centers in Gorgui Dieng and Nikola Pekovic, but Pek could leave soon, too. Really, just about any player the Wolves pick could make sense, which is why I’d expect them to simply go for talent. In that case, it’s either Okafor or Towns. Okafor could play the four, and — along with Wiggins and Pekovic/Dieng — could give the T-Wolves a very strong frontcourt.
The Pick: Jahlil Okafor
Per Rukkus, here are some important facts and figures to delve into before tonight’s NBA draft lottery bonanza:
