‘Wolves Exhibition Struggles With Ricky Rubio On Bench Suggest His Value

We know what you’re thinking: What team wouldn’t struggle without its starting point guard on the floor during preseason play? And while there’s certainly merit to that assessment, it belies specific context that’s so important to the present and future of not just the impact of Ricky Rubio, but his time with the Minnesota Timberwolves, too.

Rubio is divisive for a reason. Arguably the best point guard defender in the NBA and a wildly gifted passer, his complete inability to space the floor or finish in the paint makes his offensive value difficult to quantify. Here’s Rubio’s shotchart from last season. You might want to don some sunglasses before taking a look:

Yikes. The amazing thing about Rubio in 2013-2014 is that he actually improved as a long-range shooter but still remained so ineffective on the whole. Teams indeed want to prohibit three-point tries at almost any cost, but will certainly live with above-break tries from a marksman of Rubio’s reputation. So while his mark of 36.19 percent from there is solid, it’s hardly one that will move a defensive string. Teams are fine with Rubio taking that shot, especially considering that he attempted barely over one per game last season.

It’s the wholesale struggles elsewhere that paint a more accurate portrayal of Rubio’s limits. If defenders go under every ball-screen set for him to goad a mid-range jumper and are comfortable with him making forays to the paint without offering much help because he’s such a poor finisher, is the Spaniard’s passing flair really that impactful?

That question was more difficult to answer when Kevin Love was a member of the Timberwolves. He bent defenses in such a unique way as to render the influence of his teammates almost irrelevant in a vacuum. Minny bled offensively to the extent it did last season when Love went to the bench for a reason.

And though Rubio’s individual on-off numbers from 2013-2014 paint an optimistic picture of his overall offensive impact – the ‘Wolves offensive efficiency was a staggering 11.2 points better when he was on the court – there’s too much noise associated with that simple analysis. A huge portion of his court-time was shared with Love, after all. A more telling statistic is how Minnesota performed as Rubio ran the show with his superstar former teammate sitting. The Timberwolves scored 109.2 points per 100 possessions when Rubio was on the court with Love. When the latter went to the bench, they managed an offensive efficiency of 104.1 – a mark 1.5 points behind the team’s overall average.

That a team would labor without a singular force like Love isn’t shocking, but it’s not encouraging from a Rubio perspective, either. If the 24 year-old is really worth the max-level contract he’s reportedly commanding, such a dip wouldn’t be so steep.

The fortunate thing for Rubio and agent Dan Fegan, though, is that those numbers are mostly irrelevant now. Minny is moving forward without Love, obviously, and the threat of his presence was so all-encompassing as to render past scrutiny almost completely inconsequential.

The ‘Wolves will play differently without Love and under the tutelage of Flip Saunders in 2014-2015, as well as going forward. And if the preseason is any indication, Rubio’s total influence stands to loom larger as a result.

Now, there’s static here. The sample size is tiny and rotational patterns effect this statistic, too. It could mean nothing. But after watching Minnesota play during the exhibition season, it’s certainly seems important. The Timberwolves have been absolutely dreadful while Rubio is on the bench in the preseason. No stats are needed to support that assertion, either; the eye-test is enough under circumstances so obviously dire.

And an even more promising thing than that raw statistic for Rubio’s extension or restricted free agency talks? That the former prodigy’s impact is so big despite the fact that he can’t buy a bucket despite a supposedly improved jump-shot. Rubio is shooting a hideous 31.6 percent in the ‘Wolves exhibitions and has yet to make a three-pointer, but his team is lost without him anyway.

Might we have an answer to whether or not Rubio can be valuable offensively despite such clear flaws? It’s too early to say. But the results are certainly encouraging from Rubio’s viewpoint, and middling from Minnesota’s. Given this early analysis, then, don’t be surprised if Rubio continues to labor as a shooter in 2014-2015 but is awarded a big payday next summer by the Timberwolves anyway. It appears they may need him more than those deficiencies ultimately matter.

*Statistical support for this post provided by nba.com/stats.

What do you think?

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