Looks like we’ve got another depends-on-how-you-look-at-it weekend at the box office. Last week, X-Men: First Class grossed $55.1 million, which is great for most movies, but still the lowest of the X-Men franchise (which, to be fair, had been farted on by Bret Ratner and jizz-toweled by Wolverine by that point). This week, Super 8 came in with an estimated $37 million, which, considering it wasn’t a sequel or remake (even though it was sort of an uncredited rip-off of ten different Spielberg movies) or any stars in it, is a huge number. But not “blockbuster” huge, according to some.
Prior to opening, allegedly soft tracking in industry polling led Paramount and others to project Super 8‘s weekend at $25-30 million. However, even if Super 8 beat last-minute expectations, that doesn’t necessarily make it a success. The most important expectations for any movie are the ones that are set when a movie is greenlighted as well as the ones that guide a marketing campaign. A Spielberg-produced movie aiming to emulate his blockbusters of yore has high expectations attached to it, especially with the super-hyped Abrams at the helm. Super 8‘s marketing was conducted as if the movie were an intended blockbuster: the campaign was massive, ranging from a Super Bowl spot through a raft of television ads as well as promotions on American Idol and the MTV Movie Awards. $37 million is not a blockbuster opening for this type of movie in this day and age. Super 8′s attendance wasn’t even much higher than E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial’s on the same weekend back in 1982, and Super 8 had over three times the locations. [BoxOfficeMojo]
Yeah, well, as I thought when I was watching it, it’s not 1987 anymore. They’re bound to be pleased with a $37 million opening on a movie with a $50 million production budget. Meanwhile, Pirates 4, which cost $400 million to make and market, according to the New York Times, has earned… wait for it… $887 million so far. If my math is correct, that’s close to a billion. It’s been out for three weeks. It all goes to support my thesis, “Foreigners Love Johnny Depp.”
Top 10 chart and Fantasy Box Office standings after the jump.
1. ‘Super 8,’ $37.0 million (3,379 screens), $38.0 million
2. ‘X-Men: First Class,’ $25.0 million (3,692), $98,9 million total
3. ‘The Hangover Part II,’ $18.5 million (3,675), $216.6 million
4. ‘Kung Fu Panda 2,’ $16.6 million (3,929), $126.9 million
5. ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides,’ $10.8 million (3,433), $208.8 million
6. ‘Bridesmaids,’ $10.2 million (2,922), $123.9 million
7. ‘Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer,’ $6.3 million (2,524), new release
8. ‘Midnight in Paris,’ $6.1 million (944), $14.2 million
9. ‘Thor,’ $2.4 million (1,782), $173.6 million
10. ‘Fast Five,’ $1.7 million (1,329), $205.1 million
Yep, Judy Moody kind of tanked. Next up, FANTASY BOX OFFICE STANDINGS. I hear the current leader is ruggedly handsome, but with a gentle touch.
Frotcast Fantasy Summer Box Office Standings
Vince’s Picks:
1. Harry Potter
2. X-Men: First Class ($55.1 million opening)
3. Green Lantern (opening next weekend)
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
BOMB PICK: The Change Up
Ben’s (The Ear Rapist) Picks:
1. Cars 2
2. Super 8 ($37 million opening*)
3. The Zookeeper
4. Friends with Benefits
BOMB PICK: The Smurfs
Brendan’s (Human Giant) Picks:
1. Transformers 3
2. Captain America
3. Bad Teacher
4. Mr. Popper’s Penguins (opening next weekend)
BOMB PICK: Green Lantern (opening next weekend)
Bret’s (Grumpiest Man Alive) Picks:
1. Cowboys and Aliens
2. Smurfs
3. Spy Kids 4
4. Horrible Bosses
BOMB PICK: Transformers 3
So far I’m ahead, but all that really proves is that my second choice beat Ben’s second choice, with no one else in the clubhouse. Things heat up this weekend when Green Lantern opens, my third choice and Brendan’s bomb pick. I don’t disagree that it looks pretty terrible, and with a budget of $150 – $200 million, it makes an attractive bomb pick. But I tend to think it’s the movies you haven’t heard of that bomb, not the ones everyone’s heard of and think looks sh*tty. Plus Ryan Reynolds is dreamy. I guess we’ll see.
*Based on early estimates — actual numbers tomorrow