So here we go. After several months of previewing the contenders, it”s time to predict the nominees for the 85th Annual Academy Awards in the crafts categories.
Today, I’ll analyze Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Production Design and Best Visual Effects. Tomorrow, I’ll turn to Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Sound Editing and Best Sound Mixing.
Let’s dig in…
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (Tech Support Analysis)
Soon-to-be Best Picture nominees “Les Misérables” and especially “Lincoln” had to meticulously recreate the 19th Century in painstaking detail. I expect them to be in the final three, especially given the aging in “Les Mis” and the transformative work in “Lincoln.”
The plentiful makeup in “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” would seem most likely to complete the trio, especially considering both “Lord of the Rings” movies to make the bake-off lists made the final cut. Creating dwarves, elves and hobbits, to say nothing of battle wounds, required considerable work. But there is a lot more CGI this time around, and this category normally has a notable omission.
Given the potential for surprises, none of the finalists making it would floor me, from “Hitchock””s recreation of Old Hollywood to “Looper””s transformation of one actor to another and “Snow White and the Huntsman””s beauty makeup and battle wounds.
Most likely, however, the giddily outlandish work of Rick Baker on “Men in Black 3” will find a home. That’s what I expect, anyway, so God dammit, I”ll predict it!
“Men in Black 3”
(alt. “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”)
BEST MUSIC – ORIGINAL SCORE (Tech Support Analysis)
A few weeks ago, I said I felt John Williams (“Lincoln”) was locked in this category with Alexandre Desplat (“Argo”), Mychael Danna (“Life of Pi”) and Dario Marianelli (“Anna Karenina”) looking good. I still feel that way. Williams is Williams, scoring the likely nominations leader. Enough said. While Desplat could suffer from drawing split attention, Danna could encounter some newbie shyness and Marianelli must battle the divisive nature of his film, I feel the three of them will each score a nomination due to some combination of support for their films. Each have noticeable scores with exotic elements, precursor attention and respect for the composers.
I”m guessing Desplat gets pulled along with “Zero Dark Thirty” to become a double-nominee for his subtle but suspense-building work on Kathryn Bigelow”s feature. Remember “The Hurt Locker””s somewhat surprising nomination here. I also feel a double nomination for Desplat is inevitable one of these years, so why not this one?
I”ll admit, however, that this prediction is somewhat of a cop-out given that I can”t decide which of the integral scores by yet-to-be-nominated composers such as Jonny Greenwood (“The Master”), Reinhold Heil & Johnny Klinek (“Cloud Atlas”) or Benh Zeitlin & Dan Romer (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”) has the best chance. The precursors have sent very mixed messages on these films, and it”s difficult for newcomers to break into this category.
I should add that given Thomas Newman”s history in pulling some surprising nominations, I wouldn”t dismiss “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.”
“Life of Pi”
“Zero Dark Thirty”
(alt. “The Master”)
BEST MUSIC – ORIGINAL SONG (Tech Support Analysis)
Always the most difficult category to predict, perhaps Best Original Song will be less so this year given the recent rule changes? Hard to say.
Adele”s haunting “Skyfall” should (not that that always matters) become the first Bond title since “For Your Eyes Only” to find a home here – both the film and tune are more AMPAS-friendly than the ditties that have been snubbed in the meantime. The narrative-friendly placement of “Suddenly” in “Les Misérables” results in it sitting pretty as well, especially as it is a way to acknowledge these giants of composing. And Pixar films have a good track record here, so I”d give the edge to “Learn Me Right” over “Touch the Sky” from “Brave” (though I wouldn”t rule out the latter).
After those three, I find the category becomes tricky, though the idea of giving Ennio Morricone & Elisa a nomination for “Ancora Qui” from “Django Unchained” strikes me as irresistible and I”m guessing AMPAS will feel the same way. But Morricone is not the only vet the branch has the opportunity to cite, as Paul Williams contributed “Still Alive” to the documentary “Paul Williams Still Alive.” It would seem a good way to round out the final five (assuming there is a final five), but Williams has had an even longer time away from a nomination than Morricone. And did the film resonate with anyone?
The chance to go for a reliable old star such as Dolly Parton (“From Here to the Moon and Back” from “Joyful Noise”) or a reliable modern star such as Keith Urban (“For You” from “Act of Valor”) could be AMPAS”s cup of tea. Most likely, however, is the prominent “Pi”s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi.” I do have reservations about its failure to garner precursor citations despite prominent placement in a very prominent film. Of course, I realize the same could be said about “Ancora Qui,” but “Pi”s Lullaby” doesn”t have Morricone on board.
“Learn Me Right” from “Brave”
“Ancora Qui” from “Django Unchained”
“Suddenly” from “Les Misérables”
“Pi’s Lullaby” from “Life of Pi”
“Skyfall” from “Skyfall”
(alt. “Still Alive” from “Paul Williams Still Alive”)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (Tech Support Analysis)
The Art Directors Guild nominated 15 titles between period, fantasy and contemporary productions, so its omissions are more telling than its nominees. “Anna Karenina,” “Les Misérables” and to a lesser extent “Lincoln” all strike me as locks for nods. Given the film”s reception from critics and audiences, and the opportunity to honor the late J. Michael Riva, I”d bank on “Django Unchained” showing up here as well. That said, the reliance on exteriors, as well as the difficulties in handicapping Tarantino movies with Oscar (none have been nominated in this category) mean it is far from a lock. All four titles were among the guild nominees in the period category.
There is usually a fantasy title nominated so I”d look to “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” to complete the quintet. But it”s no lock, and I would say the fantastical (if not exactly “fantasy”) “Life of Pi” is breathing down its neck.
Sharon Seymour”s design of “Argo” was meticulous, but I can”t help but feel it”s too subtle to score with so much showiness around. The guild nomination is a boon, however. “Cloud Atlas” and “The Master” are sorely deserving of placements here but the former seems to be poised to survive in few categories and I”m doubtful this will be first among them, while Jack Fisk (behind the former) has only been nominated once in his career despite doing great work for decades. The lack of a guild nomination is especially troubling.
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
(alt. “Life of Pi”)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (Tech Support Analysis)
“Life of Pi,” “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” and “The Avengers” all have respected visual effects crews, prestige and/or box office, not to mention very noticeable effects. I”d be very surprised if any of the three, which led the way among the nominees of the Visual Effects Society, came up short.
“The Dark Knight Rises” has effects slightly more subtle but still very respectable, in a respected film, from a respected crew. I”d say it”s just behind the three leading titles. And I think “Cloud Atlas” which has the “most” visual effects of almost any film of 2012, is best poised to complete the quintet. Though the divisive nature of the film, and the quibbling with some of the work, could pose a problem.
“Prometheus” would be my alternate – the “Alien” series has done very well here and it was cited a few times by the Society. And anomination for Ridley Scott”s movie would result in a variance with the BFCA nominees. But I”m predicting a 5/5 matchup.
“Skyfall,” finally, may be respected but the effects seem too subtle, while “John Carter” has a plethora of effects but seems too floppy. “The Amazing Spider-Man” and “Snow White and the Huntsman” seem too…underwhelming.
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Life of Pi”
That rounds us out today. Check back tomorrow for the conclusion and my full list of predictions in all categories!