OK, so apparently the gambling Gods were not blown away by Cat Stacks. We’re going with dogs this week in an effort to appease their fickle nature. One quick note on this week’s games before we get to the picks. 11 of the 13 lines offered this weekend are 4.5 points or less. Not a huge deal for gambling purposes, but it does mean that this is by far the most difficult week of the year for confidence pools to date. So good luck with that.
Last Week: 3-4
Cincinnati Bengals -3 (+110) at Cleveland Browns
I hate almost everything about this one, right down to the +110 offered by the sportsbook. Cleveland is a feisty underdog playing at home, Joe Haden is back from suspension and I’m never comfortable picking this game anyway. That said, the bulldog in the middle up there is really speaking to me. He looks the way I feel after a Sunday of wings and beer. I feel very connected to him.
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 vs. Washington Redskins
They say that when it comes to the point spread, the difference between RGIII and Kirk Cousins is 1.5 points. I’m sorry, but that’s crap. And not the good solid crap you have after a week of roughage and lean protein, but the kind of stuff that comes out of you on a Monday morning. RGIII is one of the more valuable quarterbacks in the league, and at this point in his career, Kirk Cousins is Rex Grossman. I will never understand gambling, and I’m pretty sure I don’t want to.
Oh, and as for the game itself…Washington has lost, like, 250 straight home games, RGIII doesn’t know what month it is, and the Vikings are an unstoppable 4-1 juggernaut that’s surely heading to Super Bowl glory. So yeah, 1.5 points makes no sense at all. Everyone likes to go the other way when something seems to good to be true. But since everyone is going the other way, I’ll go the other other way, right back to where I belong: Picking against my shitty team.
Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The difference between ANY starter (even Matt Cassel) and Brady Quinn has to be at least a touchdown, right? Right. Brady Quinn is the worst. They can tell him to hand it off 35 times and he’ll still figure out fun ways to screw it up. Will he turn the wrong way? Run into his back? Throw a toss after calling for a dive? Hopefully.
Atlanta Falcons -9.5 (-105) vs. Oakland Raiders
For most teams, having a bye week to gameplan against an offense like Atlanta’s is advantageous. For Oakland, it’s just a few extra days to fuck shit up.
Detroit Lions +4 at Philadelphia Eagles
Four of Philly’s last five games have been decided by two points. If they are giving, you may as well be taking.
St. Louis Rams +4 at Miami Dolphins
Similarly, Miami’s last three contests have all been decided by four or less. Take the points and hope for the best when two teams on the shitty side of mediocre square off.
Crazy Ass Prop Bet of the Week
Bovada is asking whether Tony Gonzalez will lead the NFL in receptions this season. If you say “No” (God help you if you don’t), then you’ll have to pay $500 now to win $100 on New Year’s Eve. Happy New Year’s to you! Tony did lead the league once back in 2004 with 102 catches (the most catches ever recorded in a season by a tight end). Right now he holds a slim lead over Welker, Harvin, Cruz, Green and Wayne. Five guys who don’t share the field with potential Roddy White and Julio Jones.