Hello, and welcome to The Oscar Chase: In which Uproxx film and TV editor Keith Phipps and Uproxx senior entertainment writer Mike Ryan discuss the 2016 Oscar season. Also, we have a whole brand stinkin’ new The Oscar Chase landing page just set up for the Oscar season with all of our Oscar coverage thus far, including reviews of Oscar’ biggest films and interviews with the filmmakers who made them. It’s going to be fun!
Ahead, Keith and Mike kick off this year’s discussion with where we are at right now.
Mike: So, early December is always an interesting time for the Oscar discussion. We’ve seen everything (and between the two of us we’ve seen basically everything other than Rogue One and Passengers), yet we aren’t sick of these movies yet. They still seem fresh and fun and new. And audiences will finally see long-time favorite La La Land starting this week, which I still think will win Best Picture. Though, Moonlight has made a strong push in the last couple of weeks, but I still think La La Land will win – even though it will probably be a weird year where no one film dominates. I think it will be like Spotlight last year, or Argo in 2012, where those films won Best Picture, but certainly didn’t sweep the awards.
Keith: Wow, you just want to get right down to it, don’t you? Don’t you want to ease into the Best Picture race discussion? Shouldn’t we talk about who’s likely to win the Best Documentary Short or something first? I could even throw in a musical number to kick things off and fill time.
But I think you’re right: At this point, based largely on the early awards given out by critics’ groups, it’s looking like a two-movie race: La La Land and Moonlight. The good news: They’re both great movies. This isn’t a case where there’s a bad choice or an early favorite that becomes a front-runner because it fits the shape of past winners. And they’re both unusual movie. One’s a full-on musical of the type we don’t see any more — at once thoroughly modern and in and old Hollywood tradition — the other’s a moving, stylistically bold, three-part coming-of-age story focusing on a black, gay kid in Miami.
But, hold up: I’m looking at the list of the year’s notable films I put together and I’m not sure we should narrow it down just yet. I can’t imagine that Manchester By the Sea won’t be in the discussion. (It certainly will be for acting, which we can get to in a bit.) I saw Martin Scorsese’s Silence yesterday — review to come — and it’s a major accomplishment. Jackie both fits the mold of the sort of movie the Oscars like and breaks it. It’s an intense, sometimes off-putting experience. Natalie Portman’s a lock for a Best Actress nomination, but I hope the accomplishment as a whole doesn’t get overshadowed by its start. I’d love to see Arrival in the mix, which doesn’t seem out of the question, and I don’t think you can rule out Hell or High Water for Best Picture discussion. Do you see any other contenders?
Mike: But, see, this is why they nominate a whole host of movies. You didn’t mention Fences, which is a triumph in acting for Denzel Washington and Viola Davis. But I do think the only two that could possibly win are Moonlight and La La Land. And you are correct, they are both very different. But they do have one shared quality: They both take us through a spectrum of emotions while we watch. In both, we laugh and we cry. We feel hope, and we get that hope shattered. Both are about the intricacies and joy and heartbreak of love, but just presented in different ways. I think with everything going on in the real world right now, we like movies that make us feel. And both films do a good job of that: I felt alive while watching both. And I think that’s why both are hitting in such a big way. We want to feel right now. We want to feel like human beings. I think both of these movies help remind us that we aren’t numb to the world around us. (Not to mention the “inside baseball” aspects: They both played “the game” correctly in that both film debuted at the late summer film festivals: Venice, Telluride and Toronto. The last movie that won without this strategy was 2007’s No Country For Old Men, which premiered at Cannes, then played Toronto. The Departed was the last film to skip film festivals all together and win Best Picture.)
But, also like you said, there are plenty of movies to talk about and I think we’re are going to see a year where a lot of different movies win major awards.
Keith: So you’re saying a crushing, two-and-a-half-hour movie on the burdens of faith is not what we want right now? I get it, though: It’s likely going to be one or the other, and I’m fine with both.
Should we talk about acting a bit? Fences is one of the big movies I haven’t seen yet, but I’ll be catching soon. That seems like a lock for both Denzel Washington’s lead performance and Viola Davis’ work, which I understand is going to be pushed in the Supporting Actress category. Just to throw out names, Casey Affleck’s going to be mentioned a lot for Manchester By the Sea, and I’d love to see Michelle Williams get nominated for Best Supporting Actress. They have several scenes together in the movie, all of them memorable, but that one — you know the one — is so extraordinary I’m not even sure I’d know how to describe to someone who hasn’t seen the movie. Andrew Garfield for Silence seems highly likely. It’s a great performance and a demanding performance.
Also locks: Both Stone and Gosling for La La Land. For all its technical accomplishments, that film doesn’t work without its leads chemistry and charm. I’d be really disappointed if Annette Bening wasn’t nominated for 20th Century Women, but I do worry, maybe unnecessarily, about that film getting overlooked. I think it’s terrific, but it’s the sort of hard-to-describe film that can be kind of a tough sell. (Plot: “A bunch of people are in California in 1979.”) I also fret about Loving, which features two awards-caliber performances from Ruth Negga and Joel Edgerton but, like the film itself, a lot of their virtue is in their understatement. Will people notice? Finally, let me throw out dark horses for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor: Hailee Steinfeld and Woody Harrelson, respectively, for Edge of Seventeen.
Mike: Yeah, Andrew Garfield (who we spoke to recently) is making a late surge, but I do think this will be a back and forth battle between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington. (And I bet Denzel pulls it out.) I think Michelle Williams will get that nomination, but this is a done deal for Viola Davis. Actress right now seems like a three-way race between Natalie Portman, Emma Stone and Annette Bening: Gosh, I agree, I think 20th Century Women is just outstanding and I hope it gets some the momentum back it had after its debut at New York Film Festival. Best Supporting Actor seems like the only category that’s wide open. I have no idea who will win! I would put money on Mahershala Ali (who we also spoke to recently, I’m telling you our new Oscar page has some good stuff here), but his surge is just starting and there’s a long way to go.
Keith: Right, that’s the other question I was gong to ask: Who should get acting nominations for Moonlight? The correct answer is “everyone,” but since there’s no ensemble category at the Oscars, I’d say Ali makes sense, as does Naomie Harris. Maybe also Trevante Rhodes, who plays the lead character as an adult. He doesn’t get more screen time than the younger actors, who are also great, but if his performance didn’t work and if it didn’t feel like he had the spirit of the young, skinny, bullied Chiron inside his bulked out frame, the movie would fall part. He’s great. It doesn’t.
Before we move on, we should probably mention Tom Hanks, because of course we should. I really like him in Sully, too, and a nomination would make all the sense in the world. As would Amy Adams for Arrival, but we probably shouldn’t rule out Isabelle Huppert, who’s been racking up critics’ awards for Elle and Things to Come. I still need to catch up with Things to Come but I know Elle‘s a tough sell for a lot of reasons. (The two of us don’t even see eye-to-eye on its virtues.) But her work is tough to deny and she’s had such a long, fascinating career, I can see it turning into a nomination. Then again, a lot could happen between now and the time the nominations come out and the awards get handed out. What looks clear three months away could change dramatically. We might look back at this and laugh.
Next time: We’ll look a little further down the nominations list with a closer look at the Best Supporting Actor and Actress Categories and some thoughts on the Best Director and Screenplay races.
