By Tuesday around 8 p.m. EST, every team in this year’s World Cup will have played at least one match, with Mexico and hosts Brazil having played two.
With the exception of Mexico and Brazil, 30 squads’ fortunes will still very much be undecided–where they finish and inevitably end up, on a plane heading home or on a training pitch prepping for the knockout rounds, settling over the final two matches. To help allay or exacerbate fans’ fears, Sports Illustrated and Chartball developed a nifty little graphic that’ll not only crunch the probability that a country makes it out of its group, but also win the whole damn tournament.
Click here to glimpse and then bookmark. There the two teams explain what specifically goes into their data crunching–like defensive and offensive rankings, strength of schedule, etc.–and how the crunching occurs. They’ll update the probabilities each night after another set of matches has been played, so each team’s statistical chances will ebb and flow with the progress of the games.
U.S. fans will hope that those percentages increase and not decrease after the team takes on Ghana at 6 p.m. EST tonight.