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In your rush to try and create the perfect bracket (and a perfect bracket is nearly impossible), it’s not just about getting the Final Four or the champion right. You have to get the upsets right too. And upsets can come from the most unlikely places at times. Who can forget Valparaiso’s Sweet Sixteen in 1998, or VCU’s Final Four run, or Ohio toppling Georgetown, or Lehigh over Duke, or Steph Curry’s Davidson team.
Busting brackets isn’t the only thing a Cinderella can do. It can transform a program. Had Butler not played spoiler a few times, the Bulldogs probably don’t get into the Big East. Brad Stevens maybe isn’t coaching the Celtics. And Gordon Hayward isn’t signing giant contracts. (Hey, maybe those last two things would still be true. I’m not so good at this alternate universe timeline stuff. I should probably call up J.J. Abrams.)
Identifying who is going to pull the upset can make the tournament a lot more fun. You get an underdog to pull for while you’re watching hoops for about 12 straight hours, and if you get one right there’s a little bit of bragging rights in play.
I’m not here to tell you exactly who it’ll be because I’m bad at predictions in general, but here are 10 teams who could wear the glass slipper this week.
No. 12 Buffalo Bulls
23-9, No. 54 KenPom, No. 29 RPI, plays No. 5 West Virginia in Midwest Region
The Bulls are dancing for the very first time ever under coach Bobby Hurley, and even though that’s a good story on its own, this is also a terrific basketball team that has been playing some really great ball over the past couple months. MAC player of the year Justin Moss averages 17.7 points and 9.3 rebounds a game and is one of the best players in the country outright. Both Buffalo and West Virginia play at a high tempo, but the Bulls will need to play under control against a West Virginia team that is at its best when the game gets a little messy.
No. 13 Valparaiso
28-5, No. 63 KenPom, No. 50 RPI, plays No. 4 Maryland in Midwest Region
No stranger to the Cinderella role, Valpo won 10 of their last 11 games (including the Horizon Tournament) to close out the year, including a pair of wins over both Cleveland State and Green Bay. The Crusaders are extremely dangerous from beyond the arc and have an eclectic and long team that could pose some matchup problems against Maryland. Somehow Valparaiso managed to do a good job of shutting down Keifer Sykes, Green Bay’s terrific guard, in the teams’ three meetings, and that same type of defense against Maryland’s Melo Trimble, one of the best freshmen in all of college basketball, will be critical.
No. 12 Wofford
28-6, No. 90 KenPom, No. 48 RPI, plays No. 5 Arkansas in West Region
Far be it from me to deny the Terriers their underdog role. Wofford beat N.C. State in Raleigh earlier this season, so the Terriers are certainly capable of getting up in a big game against a major conference foe. They’re going to have to score, though. Arkansas plays a fast-paced and fun style and has sophomore Bobby Portis, who is looking to make the most of his first NCAA Tournament appearance.
No. 11 BYU
25-9, No. 31 KenPom, No. 38 RPI, plays No. 11 Ole Miss in First Four in West Region
The first of two incredibly intriguing No. 11s I have on this list who are participating in the First Four in Dayton, BYU can score and score at will. The Cougars put up 90 or more points 10 times this season, and they have a senior in Tyler Haws who could single-handedly carry BYU not only into the field of 64 but into the next round as well.
No. 14 Georgia State
24-9, No. 71 KenPom, No. 55 RPI, plays No. 3 Baylor in West Region
How can you pull against a team whose coach tore his achilles celebrating the fact his team earned an NCAA bid by winning the Sun Belt Championship? Plus that team has that coach’s son, R.J. Hunter, as well as guys-you-have-heard-of Kevin Ware (yes, that Kevin Ware) and Ryan Harrow. The Panthers will likely struggle against the length and athleticism of Baylor, but the Bears have a tendency to keep teams in games, and the Georgia State could pounce.
No. 15 Belmont
22-10, No. 149 KenPom, No. 105 RPI, plays No. 2 Virginia in East Region
Belmont can score. Virginia doesn’t look quite right with Justin Anderson still working his way back from a broken finger and an appendectomy. I’m not saying the Cavaliers are ripe for an upset, but if you’re looking for a No. 15 that could happen, this might just be the one.
No. 12 Wyoming
25-9, No. 102 KenPom, No. 73 RPI, plays No. 5 Northern Iowa in East Region
There might be no player easier to root for in this tournament than Larry Nance Jr. He’s one of the nation’s best dunkers. He’s the son of a former NBA great. And he has overcome Crohn’s Disease to make it this far. Wyoming is playing in its first NCAA Tournament since 2002 (when it upset Gonzaga) and just its second overall since 1988, so the Cowboys have to be excited to have a chance to knock off Northern Iowa. It won’t be easy: the Panthers are really good and have Seth Tuttle.
No. 11 Dayton
25-8, No. 40 KenPom, No. 32 RPI, plays No. 11 Boise State in First Four in East Region
Nothing like the home court advantage that comes from playing at home in the First Four. Dayton should be wild this week with the Flyers playing Boise State, but the party might not stop there if they can get into the main bracket. Dayton had one heck of a run to the Elite Eight under Archie Miller last year, and Miller stuck around to try and do it again this season.
No. 12 Stephen F Austin
29-4, No. 35 KenPom, No. 35 RPI, plays No. 5 Utah in South Region
The Lumberjacks don’t just have one of the best mascots in all of college basketball – a giant beefy dude wearing flannel and wielding an axe – they also won 28 of their last 29 games this season. Three of Stephen F Austin’s losses were to really good teams, Northern Iowa, Baylor and Xavier, and they took the Panthers to overtime. If the ‘Jacks can find a way to score against a stingy Utah defense, the upset might just happen. The Utes have been beatable recently: they come into the NCAA Tournament having lost four of their last seven games.
No. 10 Davidson
24-7, No. 32 KenPom, No. 33 RPI, plays No. 7 Iowa in South Region
Another supremely gifted offensive team, the Wildcats shoot at a high clip and don’t turn the ball over, and Bob McKillop has won in March before. Yeah, Davidson doesn’t have a player nearly as good as Curry this time around, but the Wildcats are extremely balanced and composed. This is no ordinary 10 seed, and Iowa might have its hands full come Friday.
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