College Football Power Rankings, Week 3: Hello, Michigan State

Ranking teams is hard. But you already knew that, and that’s why you think you have the answers and I’m just a patsy with a keyboard who knows nothing about sports. The crux of the problem being that we have a preconceived notion of how good a team *should* be, based on prior results, recruiting classes, coaching, returning starters, schedule (again – all weighted by each of the previous factors), and more.

What we’re left with is a giant guessing game, especially in the early part of the season where assumptions and predictions need to be used more than actual on-field performance, since that sample size is so small and usually includes a couple of gimme games. Once you start to get into the heart of the season (and in no way does three weeks of data represent this), you have a general idea who is good and who is bad, and moving teams around is a lot more like working on an assembly line.

Now though? It’s a giant blank canvas and I’m drawing stick figures and rainbows. But I’m trying my best, and maybe someone will put the finished product on the fridge and tell me I’m special.

1. Michigan State (3-0)

Last week: 2
Last game: Beat Air Force, 35-21
Next up: Saturday vs. Central Michigan

What I like most about the Spartans is they have a firm, committed and secure identity. They’re not going through their mid-20s asking themselves what they really want to do with their life, considering a move to Europe or waffling between deciding to go grad school or picking up chi running. They know who they are. They dress the way they want. They go to work excited, and listen to the music they like, and eat the food that makes them happy.

2. Ole Miss (3-0)

Last week: 13
Last game: Beat Alabama, 43-37
Next up: Saturday vs. Vanderbilt

This early in the season, I reward big wins over ranked opponents (especially on the road) more highly than I reward just about anything else. And yes, I’m also the one ranking said opponents so it’s entirely subjective in every way. But the sky isn’t exactly falling for Alabama, and the Crimson Tide are never easy to beat in T-town. That’s two years running for Ole Miss that they’ve pulled it off, and a lot of it has to do with the quality of player Hugh Freeze has brought in. Is Ole Miss for real over the course of an entire season? We’ll see. But through three weeks, this team looks as good as anyone.

3. Notre Dame (3-0)

Last week: 10
Last game: Beat Georgia Tech, 30-22
Next up: Saturday vs. UMass

What the Fighting Irish are doing is pretty incredible. Lose your starting tailback, lose your quarterback, lose your tight end, and even lose a defensive back celebrating. Somehow the wins are still there. And that’s three wins against Power Five teams already. The Georgia Tech win proves this defense is for real (and we had a feeling it could be). If the offense can hold on tight, it could be a special season in South Bend.

4. UCLA (3-0)

Last week: 4
Last game: Beat BYU, 24-23
Next up: Saturday at Arizona

I’m extremely impressed with how UCLA was able to respond playing from behind in the fourth quarter against a pretty good BYU team. This is a bunch that trusts the players around them, and didn’t panic against the Hail Mary troll gods that are the Cougars. Plus Josh Rosen gives us tweets like this after a game in which he didn’t play all that great:

And that's why it's a team sport. Love these guys, great win

— Josh Rosen (@josh3rosen) September 20, 2015

5. Ohio State (3-0)

Last week: 1
Last game: Beat Northern Illinois, 20-13
Next up: Saturday vs. Western Michigan

If Urban Meyer doesn’t even know who his quarterback is, how the heck am I supposed to feel? I still believe the Buckeyes are arguably the most talented team in the country, but if Michigan State knows exactly who it is, then Ohio State is that friend you have who has worked seven jobs in his first five years out of school and still buys coffee from McDonald’s on his way to work because he can’t figure out how to get the coffee maker his mom bought him for Christmas three years ago to work. He’s got potential, and you know he’ll find himself eventually, but don’t be surprised if he blacks out on a random Tuesday after trivia and falls asleep in an alley.

6. TCU (3-0)

Last week: 5
Last game: Beat SMU, 56-37
Next up: Saturday at Texas Tech

The Horned Frogs seem to have figured it out a little bit after that opening week sludgefest against Minnesota (who isn’t doing TCU any favors after almost losing to Kent State in Week 3). Now the meat of the schedule starts to show up – and Texas Tech, which beat Arkansas last week, might prove to be a tougher opponent than expected coming into the season.

7. Baylor (3-0)

Last week: 6
Last game: Beat Lamar, 66-31
Next up: Saturday vs. Rice

♫ Back to back, like I’m TCU and Baylor in the rankings / Back to back, like I’m Jordan ’96, ’97. ♫

8. Georgia (3-0)

Last week: 7
Last game: Beat South Carolina, 52-20
Next up: Saturday vs. Southern

Shoutout to Greyson Lambert for going 24-of-25, setting an NCAA record and looking downright filthy against the Gamecocks on Saturday. Maybe he was holding back. Maybe the South Carolina defense is really that bad. Maybe it was just a day for the Greysons of the world. Regardless, Georgia needs him to step up if it hopes to win the East and challenge for a Playoff spot. That’d take a ton of pressure off Nick Chubb to be excellent on every down.

9. Oregon (2-1)

Last week: 9
Last game: Beat Georgia State, 61-28
Next up: Saturday vs. Utah

Alright, Ducks. Show me what you got. If you’re really a Championship contender and you have put the Michigan State loss behind you, a home game at Autzen against a talented Utah team should be a chance to show up and show out.

10. Clemson (2-0)

Last week: 12
Last game: Beat Louisville, 20-17
Next up: Oct. 3 vs. Notre Dame

My friend (and all around smarter at college football guy) Michael Felder over at Bleacher Report and I were talking on Friday about Clemson’s game against Louisville and he had this to say:

“I’m not worried about Clemson at all. They played as badly as they can play, and they still managed to win a conference game on the road on a Thursday night. They’re going to be fine.”

Plus the Tigers now get all kinds of time to rest up for Notre Dame at the beginning of October. This should be good.

https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/644712308153917440

11. Alabama (2-1)

Last week: 3
Last game: Lost to Ole Miss, 43-37
Next up: Saturday vs. Louisiana-Monroe

I don’t think the sky is falling for Alabama as much as some Crimson Tide fans do. Nick Saban should not be put in a capsule and sent to the center of the Earth. I’m not advocating that he lose his American citizenship. But there’s some concern here – the offense is clunky and confused. The defense is clearly missing some pieces. And there seems to be a bunch of guys looking around waiting for someone else to tell them “WE ARE BAMA, REMEMBER?” That said, in a one-off game against teams 12-25 in the Top 25, I’m still taking the Tide based on overall roster alone.

12. LSU (2-0)

Last week: 18
Last game: Beat Auburn, 45-21
Next up: Saturday at Syracuse

When I went to hit CTL:F to make sure that game against Syracuse is being played in the Carrier Dome, I typed Fournette into the search bar instead of LSU. This actually happened and is not a punchline to a joke.

13. Oklahoma (3-0)

Last week: 14
Last game: Beat Tulsa, 58-32
Next up: Oct. 3 vs. West Virginia

Okay, so yeah, maybe you shouldn’t give up 38 points to Tulsa. But the Sooners are a much better overall football team than I thought they’d be this season, and until they give me a reason to think otherwise, I’m going to assume they are playing to the level of their competition.

14. Texas A&M (3-0)

Last week: 16
Last game: Beat Texas A&M, 44-27
Next up: Saturday at Arkansas

Presented without context is Daylon Mack crushing fools:

15. Florida State (3-0)

Last week: 15
Last game: Beat Boston College, 14-0
Next up: Oct. 3 at Wake Forest

Boston College’s defense is legit, and Florida State has had trouble in Chestnut Hill in the past. The offense still not really knowing what to do or who they want to be is a problem seeing as it’s almost October, but the Seminoles get a bye week (and a date with a Wake Forest team they should be able to handle) to start the month, so who knows? Maybe they’ll do some trust falls and get this thing figured out before the real tests start.

16. Georgia Tech (2-1)

Last week: 8
Last game: Lost to Notre Dame, 30-22
Next up: Saturday at Duke

If the Yellow Jackets really are ACC Championship worthy, they’ll put the loss to Notre Dame behind them and win a sneaky tough road game against a reeling Duke team.

17. Utah (2-0)

Last week: 1
Last game: Beat Fresno State, 45-24
Next up: Saturday at Oregon

Last week I told you Utah was skim milk, and this week I give you this quote from Utah coach Kyle Whittingham from a nice Paul Myerberg piece from USA Today last week:

“The game of football is physical.”

Good thing Utah football …

helps build strong bones.

18. Northwestern (3-0)

Last week: 25
Last game: Beat Duke, 19-10
Next up: Saturday vs. Ball State

The Wildcats seem to finally be over the past two seasons, which coach Pat Fitzgerald called a roller coaster they “burned” following the win over the Blue Devils. And the team is getting hype to eat Chick-fil-A, as most people do. The Big Ten – and college football in general – is better when Northwestern is winning.

19. Arizona (3-0)

Last week: 24
Last game: Beat Northern Arizona, 77-13
Next up: Saturday vs. UCLA

The Wildcats have UCLA next, which means we should all watch their Bond parody at least a half dozen times and try to think of our best James Bond movie names to call this game. Right now, I’m leaning toward “Every Rose (Bowl) Can Kill” but we can obviously do better.

20. Stanford (2-1)

Last week: NR
Last game: Beat USC, 41-31
Next up: Friday at Oregon State

Oh, so this is what Stanford was supposed to look like this season. Maybe the Cardinal really were just sleepy when they played Northwestern. Who can blame them? I was sleepy, too.

21. USC (2-1)

Last week: 10
Last game: Lost to Stanford, 41-31
Next up: Saturday at Arizona State

I wrote this last week:

Now where are my dang cupcakes?

22. West Virginia (3-0)

Last week: 22
Last game: Beat Liberty, 41-17
Next up: Saturday vs. Maryland

The Mountaineers first big game of the season comes in Morgantown on Saturday, which means it’s our first big time to remind you about the time the city government tried to crack down on couch burning.

23. Missouri (3-0)

Last week: 21
Last game: Beat UConn, 9-6
Next up: Saturday at Kentucky

Hey, the win was ugly, but at least we got this hilarious fake field goal from UConn:

And this nice graphic: