There is a not entirely unreasonable argument that the Seattle Seahawks, having already dropped the first two games of this season, are in a smidge of early-season trouble. The two-time reigning NFC champs lost the opener in St. Louis and then another in Green Bay. They also have the fourth-toughest schedule, based on last year’s winning percentages. Few could dispute the simple fact that, regardless of whatever may come over the next 14 games, Seattle will face an uphill road to the playoffs.
OK, but a much more reasonable vein of thought is that the Seahawks are going to be just fine from here on out. They still have 14 games to right this ship, which isn’t even that particularly unstable at the moment. Their star quarterback and running back are healthy and competent and not putting up anything resembling abysmal numbers. They could use some more depth at wide receiver, sure, but they have one of the three best tight ends in football who is still developing his comfort level for this offense.
Overall, with the true talent level this team possesses, Seattle likely has very little to worry about come January. (Oh, and the idea of playing a Super Bowl in the home park of their biggest geographical rival should provide reams of motivation, one would think?)
And maybe the biggest boon to these Seahawks? They get a fortuitous chance to break this schneid against an even more disappointing and underachieving Chicago Bears team that is likewise 0-2, but also will probably be without the services of one Jay Cutler, who had his hamstring tweaked in a most debilitating manner. There is, certainly, a chance Chicago could go into CenturyLink Field on Sunday (4:25 ET, CBS) and strike down Russell Wilson and Co., but there’s also a chance Bill Belichick will pattycake with reporters while singing “Skip to My Lou” at his next press conference. It’s just not terribly likely.
If the Seahawks do need to be scared straight about taking Chicago seriously, the math of being down 0-3 to start the year should be sufficient. Since the playoffs expanded in 1990 to 12 teams, only three teams have ever started 0-3 and made the playoffs: 1992 Chargers, 1995 Lions, and the 1998 Bills. None even advanced to a conference championship, and overall that’s just a 2 percent success rate of even qualifying. If you’re expected to be a perennial Super Bowl contender and play half your games a year in front of a rabid and vocal fan base, you best not put your playoff odds at 1 in 50.
What’s working in Seattle’s favor thus far is that almost all of the stats and metrics back up the premise that they’re doing mostly fine, even sans victories. Marshawn Lynch only has 114 yards on 33 rushes and his streak of four straight 1,200-yard seasons is in some doubt, but he also has a recent history of late-season surges. (Last year, 58 percent of his season rushing yardage came in the final eight games. Seattle, unsurprisingly, went 7-1 over that stretch.) Most of Russell Wilson’s individual numbers are far below his career averages, but it’s still a small sample size that will undoubtedly even out by season’s end. He does have a new weapon this season in tight end Jimmy Graham (seven receptions for 62 yards and a score).
On the flip side, it’s clear where they do need to improve. Seattle is only ranked 19th in yards per game. They’ve already lost on the road against the Rams, who figure to be their staunchest competition for the NFC West crown. Football Outsiders has the Seahawks ranked a positively dismal 28th in defensive DVOA and their simulations project Seattle to only go 9-7 on the year — at best.
The secondary that has been so porous against St. Louis and Green Bay should get some much needed relief on Sunday when safety Kam Chancellor returns to the field, having finally put the kibosh on his holdout that started on July 31. Even though he’s signed through 2017, on a deal he signed in 2013, Chancellor was hoping to restructure his deal so as to get paid more of his money sooner. That strategy, of course, went absolutely nowhere and, you could argue, was more of a direct cause for Seattle’s loss to St. Louis than anything else. (It was Chancellor’s replacement, Dion Bailey, who slipped and fell on the late, game-tying touchdown that sent the contest to overtime.)
Nonetheless, Chancellor will most likely be starting this Sunday — really, why would you wait any longer to play him? — and the Seahawks should have little-to-no trouble completely neutralizing Bears backup quarterback Jimmy Clausen, who has a grand total of 344 passing yards over parts of five games the last two seasons. This should be a mismatch of monumental proportions.
Then again, we don’t really know anything. Nine teams are currently 0-2 and eight were playoff teams a year ago, so a full two-thirds of last season’s playoff contenders are already sweating out a potential return trip. The Cowboys are facing an uncertain immediate future without Tony Romo. Same for Drew Brees and the Saints. The Broncos, though 2-0 under Peyton Manning’s stewardship, have the worst offense in the NFL. And the winless Colts are a directionless team flailing to points unknown.
Some of these teams will course-correct in time to save their seasons, but some are lost causes. We just don’t know who yet. With a statement showing against the Bears, the Seahawks can get back on a familiar track, the kind that may yet, somehow, lead them back to a third-straight Super Bowl appearance.
It can all start on Sunday, but only with a win.
