Back To The Future: Can New England Really Go Undefeated (Again)?

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If the slate of NFL games last weekend seems perhaps a tad more competitive than usual, that’s because the New England Patriots had their bye, so there was no sanctioned opportunity for them to pummel some outmatched opponent into a fine mist. That brief reprieve, however, is over. Step up, Dallas Cowboys. It’s time once more for someone to test their mettle against a team that has proved nearly unstoppable through its first three games.

The Patriots lead the league in scoring with a hair under 40 points per game. Their NFL-best passing attack is 50 yards better than anyone else, thanks to Tom Brady, who has been just about as flawless as at any point in his career: nine touchdowns, no picks, a career-high 72.2 completion rate on a career-high 44.3 attempts per game, and a 119.6 passer rating. Even with the week off, Brady is only 136 yards behind San Diego’s Philip Rivers for the overall lead.

There’s an alternate universe where Brady’s four-game suspension was upheld and he’s still sitting out this week as the short-lived Jimmy Garoppolo Experience starts to wind down its final performances. But that reality never came to pass, much to the regret of literally everyone not on the Patriots. The defense (20th in yards allowed) and rushing attack (27th overall) are not great but they are good enough, and all you need to do is outscore the other team. It’s no more complicated than that, and that’s what New England is excelling at thus far.

And so The Narrative that will dominate over the next few weeks is when (if?) the Patriots will finally succumb to someone this regular season. It sure doesn’t look like it’ll be this weekend against the Cowboys, who are not exactly, you might say, playing at full strength. And we’ll be getting the Patriots every weekend from here on out, so the 16-0 chatter will only intensify as the season moves along. We’ve been there before, in 2007, when the Pats scored nearly 37 points a game en route to a perfect September-through-December slate. Brady threw 50 touchdown passes then, but he’s more efficient this time around. If it’s ever going to happen again, this might be actually the year.

So let’s take a trip in time and see what lies ahead for Bill Belichick’s crew and when they might finally slip up and throw in a skinny number in the loss column.

Week 5: at Dallas (19th in pass defense)
Week 6: at Indianapolis (23rd)

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PREVIOUSLY: Why the NFC East is football’s saddest division


This will be the last set of consecutive road games that the Pats play until the final two weeks of the season. All things being equal and if each opponent was at anything resembling full strength, you could make a case that either of these would a tough matchup, but that’s not where we are.

The Cowboys are a walking triage unit, still missing Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. Linebacker Sean Lee came out of last Sunday night’s game in New Orleans with a concussion and his return is still uncertain. “Garbage Human” Greg Hardy will make his debut for Dallas, but who knows what sort of stamina he’ll have. Running back Lance Dunbar, who is second on the team in receptions, is now out for the year after ligaments in his knee. There is simply no way the Cowboys will be able to keep up with the Pats’ offense.

Ha, OK, does anyone actually think the Patriots are going to lose in Indianapolis? After everything that Deflategate begat back in January at the AFC Championship Game, could there be any remote chance that New England will lose this game, the one they are probably most motivated to win out of any on the schedule? Nope, it ain’t happening. This is as sure a bet as anything.

Week 7: vs. Jets (3rd in pass defense)
Week 8: vs. Miami (15th)
Week 9: vs. Washington (9th)

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Then New England gets three straight home games, with the Jets first up, and this will be a great test for both sides. Todd Bowles’ team is allowing the fewest points per game (13.8), has its bye, and need only fend off Washington in Week 6 before trekking to Foxborough for this contest. If Chris Ivory can keep this rushing attack honest, and thus give a mediocre Ryan Fitzpatrick a shot at going downfield when given the opportunity, this could go either way. Darrelle Revis vs. Tom Brady? That’s why we watch the games. Still, New England should win in a shootout.

The Dolphins game is actually more interesting than at first glance, since it comes just four days after they play the Jets. They won’t have to travel, which is good, and Miami is about the closest thing to a conflagrating disaster not named the San Francisco 49ers. But the Fins also are playing their worst football of the season, and forgive me if there’s a feeling here that they can only get better in a few weeks’ time, considering the talent that lurks somewhere in the marrow of this roster. If this one was in Miami, I’d say that any lingering belief you have in the notion of a “trap game” would be somewhat relevant here, but the home-field advantage should win out. (Also, Miami’s rushing defense is ranked dead-last, so Belichick could put forth a more balanced attack in this one.)

Washington, to some extent, has been better than advertised. In the aggregate, the defense has been not terrible, but they’ve also played Ryan Tannehill, Nick Foles, Eli Manning and Sam Bradford — not exactly names that strike fear into your secondary’s heart. Again, playing on the road will hurt Washington, and while they might be able to keep New England under its seasonal scoring average, whatever it might be at that point, they don’t seem to have the offensive skill players to put them over the top. How they do against Matt Ryan and the Falcons this weekend will be a truer test of whether this defense can hold a top-tier QB in check.

Week 10: at Giants (32nd in pass defense)
Week 11: vs. Buffalo (29th)

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If this truly is the 2015 Revenge Tour, then it wouldn’t be complete with a matchup against the Giants, who are playing maybe the best football of anyone in the NFC East, which is like saying you’re the funniest person on The Big Bang Theory — it’s just got to be someone. The problem is that while the rushing defense is tops in the league (69.8 yards per game), the pass defense is positively sieve-like, allowing 316.2 yards a game. They have five weeks to patch up whatever holes they can, but Brady will likely have his way with the Giants’ secondary.

The Bills, meanwhile, played the Pats well in Week 2 in Buffalo, but the 40-32 final score was not indicative of how much New England ultimately outplayed them. This will only be close if LeSean McCoy is healthy and has finally found his rhythm as the Bills’ star back and Tyrod Taylor continues to improve each week as a legit starting quarterback. Those are big ifs, at this point, and the Pats being at home makes this an easier call than it should be.

Week 12: at Denver (1st in pass defense)

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Well, helloooooooooo nurse, we have ourselves a ballgame. Everything here is working against the Patriots: on the road, on a short week (the Buffalo game is on Monday night), playing the top-ranked pass defense (185.2 yards per game), and against a quarterback (Peyton Manning) who could conceivably match Brady score-for-score. If this was in New England, it’d maybe be a 51-49 lean to the Pats. But in the high altitude of Denver, against a longtime rival who’s out to prove he can still compete at the highest level, this one will be tough for even the Pats to overcome. This could be 38-34 or 20-17 and I wouldn’t be surprised either way, but I think Denver comes through a winner.

For the record, I see the Patriots dropping one more game before the season concludes — the Week 16 matchup at MetLife Stadium against the Jets — but winning all other games. So that would be a 14-2 season, the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, and a fast track to Super Bowl 50 in Santa Clara.

That’s not a perfect season, but the Pats only care that it ends with yet another title.

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