You hear a lot of talk about “Separation Saturday,” but in a lot of ways, the entire month of November is where that separation is made. The schedule is set up – for ratings and other reasons – in such a way that the tail end of the season is its own playoff before the playoff.
The teams who can survive that gauntlet, boss fight after boss fight, will typically (and we can get to the Big 12 last year another time) play their way in without any sort of controversy. And as we saw last week, teams naturally play their way out of the picture, as well. That’s just how college football works. After enough years of watching this happen, you sense a rhythm and a cadence in the drama.
This week should do more of the same. Another team (Oklahoma or Baylor) will be likely knocked out of the picture, and the top will tighten up even more. To borrow a phrase from the poet Bane, a “day of reckoning” is coming for a lot of teams. The question is, just when will that be?
1. Clemson (9-0)
Last week: 1
Last game: Beat Florida State, 23-13
Next up: Saturday at Syracuse
Another test down for the Tigers, who earned that number one spot and are still growing into the role. Here’s what I wrote after witnessing Clemson exorcise one of their past ghosts in Florida State on Saturday:
This is the culmination of everything Dabo Swinney has been building at Clemson, a foundation as solid as Howard’s Rock itself. And that’s why Swinney takes such offense to the word “Clemsoning,” a term that was coined a few years ago to explain the Tigers’ previous history of finding new ways to disappoint at the most inopportune times. That era of Clemson football has been buried deep underground, with thick concrete poured over the top. Like anything else in the past, it’s possible to still be haunted once in awhile, but the Tigers are refusing to let it consume them.
2. Ohio State (9-0)
Last week: 2
Last game: Beat Minnesota, 28-14
Next up: Saturday at Illinois
The Buckeyes managed to get over a slow start to put away Minnesota, and the defense led the way once again. This is going to be the script for Ohio State the rest of the season: Trust the defense, and hope the offense can get enough explosive plays to put points on the board. This will be the case regardless of who is at quarterback.
3. Alabama (8-1)
Last week: 8
Last game: Beat LSU, 30-16
Next up: Saturday at Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide are currently operating on the Machiavellian model of college football rankings – out of pure fear (and respect), they have earned this spot. I don’t love them, and I don’t know that I ever will, but I will never take them lightly. This team is getting better, and it’s scary. If they get past Mississippi State, it’s very possible they might not be stopped the rest of the way.
4. Oklahoma State (9-0)
Last week: 9
Last game: Beat TCU, 49-29
Next up: Saturday at Iowa State
Talk about stepping up in a big way. The Cowboys have enjoyed the “dress for the job you want, not the job you have” philosophy all season long, and by beating TCU, they officially played themselves into the Playoff picture. The Big 12’s round robin format to name a one true champion (or two true champions, if that ends up being the case again) will leave one team standing, probably. And why couldn’t that team be Oklahoma State? The Pokes have certainly been forged into some sort of steel-like substance so far.
5. Baylor (8-0)
Last week: 5
Last game: Beat Kansas State, 31-24
Next up: Saturday vs. Oklahoma
The other remaining unbeaten in the Big 12 is entering a crucible of its own. Oklahoma has played extremely well after the loss to Texas earlier this season, and Baylor has continue to skirt by winning week to week without knowing exactly how good the Bears really are.
Sports Illustrated‘s Pete Thamel and Thayer Evans asked that exact question in “The Inside Read” this week, with mixed results:
But Baylor also has an unproven defense and a freshman quarterback (Jarrett Stidham) making his second career start on Saturday after a season-ending neck injury to starter Seth Russell on Oct. 24. Baylor also has flopped in its only marquee out-of-conference stages the past two years, getting waxed by Central Florida, 52–42 in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago and squandering a late lead against Michigan State in last year’s 42–41 Cotton Bowl defeat. For now, it’s difficult to project if this Baylor team can re-write the ending.
6. Notre Dame (8-1)
Last week: 6
Last game: Beat Pittsburgh, 42-30
Next up: Saturday vs. Wake Forest
The Fighting Irish may just have their one one-game playoff to determine a playoff, and we’ll see what happens there when Notre Dame plays Stanford the last week of the regular season. Until then, it’s kind of autopilot for Notre Dame, who has extremely winnable games against Wake Forest and Boston College over the next two weeks.
7. Stanford (8-1)
Last week: 10
Last game: Beat Colorado, 42-10
Next up: Saturday vs. Oregon
The Cardinal’s road is a bit more fraught with terrors, so to speak. Stanford has a suddenly resurgent Oregon team, which is gaining confidence and kind of looks like Oregon again. Then Cal, with that always dangerous offense. Then Notre Dame. And even if it makes it through all three, there’s the possible Pac-12 title game to worry about. It’s not out of the question that Stanford can do this – the Cardinal have looked really strong and are running downhill at full speed screaming at the top of their lungs, and if they do it, their resumé will be as good as anyone’s.
8. Iowa (9-0)
Last week: 11
Last game: Beat Indiana, 35-27
Next up: Saturday vs. Minnesota
Speaking of a more relaxed upcoming holiday season, Iowa’s last three games are at home against Minnesota and Purdue, and a road game vs. Nebraska. The Hawkeyes will only have themselves to blame if they don’t finish the regular season undefeated. And they’d have one more shot at a quality win in that Big Ten Championship.
9. Utah (8-1)
Last week: 12
Last game: Beat Washington, 34-23
Next up: Saturday at Arizona
The Utes are still hanging around down here, and they probably prefer to be under the radar a bit. They beat Washington despite being underdogs in that game, and if they somehow were to go 3-0 in the final stretch, a date with Stanford could determine whether a one-loss Pac-12 team can make the Playoff. That UCLA game is looming large, but Utah obviously can’t afford to get tripped up by Arizona in Tucson this weekend.
10. Florida (8-1)
Last week: 13
Last game: Beat Vanderbilt, 9-7
Next up: Saturday at South Carolina
Welcome to the SEC Championship, Florida. Although getting there officially wasn’t exactly pretty. Let’s just go ahead and tape over that Vanderbilt game, never speak of it again, and go ahead and tape some episodes of Brooklyn Nine-Nine instead. That’s a funny show.
11. Oklahoma (8-1)
Last week: 14
Last game: Beat Iowa State, 52-16
Next up: Saturday at Baylor
The Sooners still have an outside shot at being the Big 12’s Playoff representative, but they have to win out the rest of the way, too. They have that win over Tennessee, which is still worth something. And they got their loss out of the way, and losing early isn’t so bad sometimes. This Baylor game will show everyone something – win that one, and we need to take Oklahoma a lot more seriously. Lose it, and we’re really down to Oklahoma State and Baylor as the Big 12’s only hope at avoiding being left out of the Playoff for the second-straight season.
12. TCU (8-1)
Last week: 4
Last game: Lost to Oklahoma State, 49-29
Next up: Saturday vs. Kansas
TCU is still alive, barely, and things won’t get easier now that Josh Doctson is out. The injuries have been piling up on the Horned Frogs all season long, and it finally caught up to them. This week should be a breeze, as TCU will probably take out a whole bunch of aggression on Kansas, but with Oklahoma and Baylor left, it’s hard not to see the Frogs losing another one along the way. Which is a shame because this is a really fun (and good team) when healthy.
13. LSU (7-1)
Last week: 3
Last game: Lost to Alabama, 30-16
Next up: Saturday vs. Arkansas
Well, we now know the answer to the question of what happens when Leonard Fournette is finally stopped. The Tigers lose.
14. Michigan State (8-1)
Last week: 7
Last game: Lost to Nebraska, 39-38
Next up: Saturday vs. Maryland
That last play was heartbreaking for the Spartans, who were on the right side of a game-winning play (officials or no officials) earlier in the year with that Michigan game. Mark Dantonio said what he needed to say, which wasn’t much, but he had a point:
“I think the best thing to do is let the Big Ten do their job,” he said.
Dantonio added, “I can’t complain about the officiating. I can talk about it. But there’s more than one play out there where we had the opportunity to win the football game. I’ll leave it at that.”
It never should have come down to one play in the first place, and Michigan State’s undefeated season is no more. There are still goals to be had; the Spartans can still win the Big Ten East if they win out – and that Ohio State game is critical.
15. Houston (9-0)
Last week: 19
Last game: Beat Cincinnati, 33-30
Next up: Saturday vs. Memphis
The Cougars are left standing as the last unbeaten team in the American. Although that could change on Saturday if Memphis can recover from the crushing loss to Navy last weekend. Houston is going through a pretty remarkable home stretch of three games in a row – Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, and now the Tigers – that pretty much defines the season and allows the Cougars to show off TDECU Stadium.
16. Michigan (6-2)
Last week: 17
Last game: Beat Rutgers, 49-16
Next up: Saturday at Indiana
The Wolverines are still hanging out. And they also have an outside shot at winning the Big Ten East. But they’d need Ohio State to beat Michigan State, and then to beat Ohio State during Rivalry Week. Hey, stranger things have happened. Remember that time Ohio State made the Playoff and won the National Championship with its third-string quarterback?
17. UNC (8-1)
Last week: 20
Last game: Beat Duke, 66-31
Next up: Saturday vs. Miami
The Playoff Committee didn’t respect UNC last week, and that’s okay. We don’t always have to agree on everything. It’s the difference in opinion that makes us who we are and allows innovation to come out of friction and so on and so forth. I think the Tar Heels are pretty good. And if they hadn’t lost that game to South Carolina the opening week in Charlotte, who knows how highly they’d be ranked right now.
18. UCLA (7-2)
Last week: 22
Last game: Beat Oregon State, 41-0
Next up: Saturday vs. Washington State
The Bruins have played their way out of the nightmare that was the first half of the season, between injuries and disastrous losses. Now that they’re awake and out of their stupor, they’re starting to resemble what they thought they would be. And that’s neat. A win over Washington State surely wouldn’t hurt.
19. Navy (7-1)
Last week: NR
Last game: Beat Memphis, 45-20
Next up: Saturday vs. SMU
Navy football is good. Navy football is fun. Navy football is a wrecking crew hellbent on destruction and carnage, ripping apart everything in its path. So best of luck to SMU. They’ll need it.
20. Memphis (8-1)
Last week: 15
Last game: Lost to Navy, 45-20
Next up: Saturday at Houston
Okay, so all those cute stories about Memphis potentially being in the Playoff collapsed like a dying star with Ole Miss losing again and the Tigers getting tripped up by the Midshipmen. But that doesn’t mean the Tigers can’t still have an incredible season. And this is where it gets decided – in Houston on Saturday night.
21. Florida State (7-2)
Last week: 16
Last game: Lost to Clemson, 23-13
Next up: Saturday vs. N.C. State
The ‘Noles couldn’t get anything going offensively outside of Dalvin Cook, and they didn’t do themselves any favors with all the pre-snap penalties which have plagued Florida State all season long. Despite all that, they were in it almost until the very end on the road against Clemson, which should scare you if you’re any other team in the ACC. In a down year, Florida State is *almost* as good as the No. 1 team in the nation. Enjoy that small window, everyone else.
22. Wisconsin (8-2)
Last week: 23
Last game: Beat Maryland, 31-24
Next up: Nov. 21 vs. Northwestern
The Badgers get a nice little break to make a fire, sit around with friends, play some board games, and enjoy some good food and drink. They’ve earned it. Honestly, we’ve all earned it.
23. USC (6-3)
Last week: 23
Last game: Beat Arizona, 38-30
Next up: Saturday vs. Colorado
Yes, I still have USC ranked, and people seemed upset about that last week. These are my rankings, and based on talent and quality wins, I think USC is as good as anyone else at the bottom of the Top 25. These spots don’t really matter all that much anyway. Sorry to shatter the illusion.
24. Temple (8-1)
Last week: NR
Last game: Beat SMU, 60-40
Next up: Saturday at USF
But hey, Temple’s back in the Top 25. Well isn’t that special?
25. Northwestern (7-2)
Last week: NR
Last game: Beat Penn State, 23-21
Next up: Saturday vs. Purdue
Northwestern has wins over Stanford, Duke and Penn State, which are a lot better than Mississippi State’s best wins of Auburn, and… Louisiana Tech? That’s why the Wildcats get there right now. Although that could all change pretty quickly if the Bulldogs find a way to beat Alabama somehow.
Next Five: Mississippi State, Toledo, Bowling Green, Ole Miss, Utz Crab Chips.
