We were hoping to ride a wave of success through Week 9 after a great Week 8 and ended up crashing horribly. Three legitimate bad beats in one week (two on unnecessary late touchdowns from teams with the lead in the final minutes!) will do that, but we are not going to be deterred. Before we look ahead, let’s look back at the carnage of a week ago.
Week 9: 2-5-1
Season Total: 36-36-1
Back to .500 isn’t where we wanted to be, but it’s time to dust ourselves off and get back on the horse. There are winners out there to be had and the formula doesn’t change much. The big exception this week is having strange confidence in non-Bulldog favorites in the great state of Georgia. We’ll see how this works out.
Wake Forest at Notre Dame UNDER 55.5
Wake is missing its top wide receiver and big play threat in Greg Dortch, which takes some of the air out of this one. Notre Dame’s defense has been filthy of late and the Deacs can play some good defense themselves. I think the Irish win comfortably in a game that finishes in the mid-to-high 40s.
USF at UConn UNDER 64.5
South Florida’s going to want some satisfaction after losing to Houston last week, and I don’t see the Huskies finding much in the way of offense against the Bulls. This might be 49-14, which will make for some serious sweats late, but that’d still be a winner. This Under is only for the strong-willed.
Syracuse (+7) at Florida State
This is simply me betting on the fact that the Orange still care and are playing hard while the Seminoles have flat out quit. That’s the only takeaway I got from the Noles getting stomped by Boston College last week. Give me the candy and the team that tries (and has hung around with good teams all year).
Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) UNDER 47
This total is plummeting as we near kickoff so get it soon or you’ll probably want to just stay away. The Canes’ defense has been stingy all year and I think this resembles the Miami-FSU rock fight we got a few weeks back. The Canes won’t want to make any critical mistakes, while the Hokies aren’t afraid to muck it up. This thing stays in the teens and we cover easily, pending no overtime.
Purdue at Illinois UNDER 48
Illinois is really, really bad at football, mostly because they have an awful offense. Purdue has found itself in low-scoring games the past few weeks and while I think they find more offensive success against the Illini, the Under ought to hold pretty easily.
Arizona (+7.5) at USC
Khalil Tate’s the real deal and his presence alone makes me feel very comfortable about taking the ‘Cats plus the candy. He’s a legit Heisman candidate despite not starting the first four games of the season, and he’s averaging an insane 13.4 yards per carry on 69 (nice) attempts. USC couldn’t stop Notre Dame’s rushing attack, so I don’t have an awful lot of confidence in them slowing down Tate and the Arizona option attack. This could be a back-and-forth game and the biggest key in achieving this cover will be Arizona holding onto the football.
Georgia State (-3.5) at Georgia Southern
Fade Georgia Southern. Always. The Panthers are playing solid football in their last five games and they’ve owned this rivalry the past two years. I don’t get to hand out the alma mater often in the column, because they tend not to be a wise team to bet on, but against the Eagles I’ll lay it with them.
Georgia Tech (-9) at Virginia
The Bees gave us a miracle push last week against Clemson to stay undefeated against the spread, so I’m riding with them against a Virginia team that’s gotten smoked the past two weeks by Boston College and Pitt. They’re beat up and worn down and suddenly have to try and deal with the triple option. That’s a recipe for disaster. Bees. Big.
Minnesota at Michigan OVER 40.5
The rare Over play from me, but this total’s too low. The Wolverines have finally turned the ball over to young Brandon Peters and the offense came alive for 35 last week against Rutgers. The Gophers have gone Under the past two weeks against Iowa and Illinois, but Michigan is much better than those two teams. Minnesota gets just enough (like, 13 points) to push this thing Over.
Rice at UAB (-10.5)
Rice is terrible. I don’t know why I’m giving this game out, but UAB is an awesome story this season and I like to fade Rice, I’m usually just not comfortable enough to hand it out in print.
