I want to preface this by saying that Lamar Jackson is almost definitely going to win the Heisman Trophy. He’s been awesome all year, his odds coming into this week were 1-50, and the hype around him has reached a point where it would take something absurd for him to lose the award.
But let’s play a fun game, prompted by Jackson struggling in Louisville’s thrashing at the hands of Houston. A lot of people asked the question “will this cost him the Heisman?” It will not, because it’s not Jackson’s fault that the Cardinals’ offensive line was mauled by Ed Oliver and the Cougars’ front seven and then…
*Louisville’s offensive line commits a false start again*
Dammit, Louisville!
But yeah, this award is still going to Jackson barring something absurd happening. This doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun and consider what happens if a doomsday scenario happens and the award goes to someone else, though.
The name that immediately comes to mind is Jabrill Peppers for two reasons. The first is he’s been fantastic this year – even when he’s not loading up the box score, he’s somehow this magical force that manages to be everywhere at once for the Wolverines’ defense. Plus he’s a return man who is capable of breaking a game open whenever he touches the ball. Sure maybe his stock has fallen a bit in recent weeks. That doesn’t mean he’s not still the nation’s best all-around football player.
More importantly, we haven’t had a “Heisman moment” from anyone this year, mostly because Jackson has been the favorite all year and it’s kind of been a foregone conclusion that he’ll win. But let’s say Michigan is able to walk into Columbus next weekend and beat Ohio State. And let’s say Peppers is everywhere on defense, breaks one in the return game, and makes an impact on offense (he was the team’s leading rusher against the Buckeyes last year and his speed/physicality could be huge against a fast/physical Ohio State defense). Add in the fact that the Wolverines would then take on a Wisconsin team they already beaten in the conference title game and Peppers has more potential to take the award from Jackson than anyone.
There are a bunch of really good running backs who deserve some love – D’Onta Foreman, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, etc. – but of course, Donnel Pumphrey is the best back in America. If he doesn’t get an invite to the ceremony, I will be furious. Wide receiver has a bunch of dudes who are really good, but Oklahoma’s Dede Westbrook has more hype than anyone else (some love to East Carolina’s Zay Jones, though, because he has 139 catches and 1,473 yards this year, which is absurd, and for the record, the FBS record for receptions in a year is 155, which is about to be broken).
There are a ton of great quarterbacks this year, although Jackson has kind of taken away from how great a lot of dudes have been. Jalen Hurts has been a monster for Alabama. Jake Browning was running in second for a while, but he slipped a bit during Washington’s loss to USC. Speaking of the Trojans, Sam Darnold has been unreal since taking over under center. Deshaun Watson has been really good, even if he’s underwhelmed at times this year, while Luke Falk and Baker Mayfield have both been on point this year.
Oh! I almost forgot Alabama’s Jonathan Allen, who is beyond disruptive along the Crimson Tide’s defensive line. I’ll also put Vanderbilt’s Zach Cunningham in here, because he is the best linebacker in America and deserves love from every single college football fan on earth. Also: if there’s anyone else who deserves some dap, feel free to make their case in the comments, because there is so much talent in the sport this year and not enough time to praise everyone.
So yeah, Jackson is going to win, but in the event that the wheels come off for Louisville and Jackson’s stock plummets for some odd reason, look for Peppers to be the guy who is most likely to make a move. Pumphrey, Hurts, Browning, and Darnold are the other dudes to keep an eye on, and as an aside, those three quarterbacks are the three guys who are most-likely to win the award next year.
Anything can happen over the next two weeks, though – keep your eyes on Barkley (who could help Penn Sate win the Big Ten by running over Rutgers, Michigan State, and Wisconsin) and Westbrook (who may go off against West Virginia and Oklahoma State and lead the Sooners to a potential Playoff birth) as potential late risers who earn invites to New York. Well, anything other than Jackson losing the award. That isn’t happening … probably.
Anyway, let’s talk about this week’s games.
The Early Slate
FRONT AND CENTER
1:00 p.m.: Florida vs. LSU, SEC Network
This is the game that got rescheduled to “SEC Teams Beat Up On Bad FCS Teams” week because of a hurricane. While the silliness of this weekend is usually fun (few things are more enjoyable than watching a good SEC team be up by 50 on a three-win FCS team), it’s cool that we have a really good SEC game on the docket.
Even if Florida’s offense gets a shot in the arm (the Gators are 90th in offensive S&P+), this game won’t be fun because of the Gators offense against the Tigers defense. The fun matchup is on the other side, where LSU’s stellar running game – led by the always brilliant Leonard Fournette and emerging star Derrius Guice – will go up against a stout Florida defense.The Gators need this one to win the SEC East title, but LSU is at home. It’s going to be awesome.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
Noon: Oklahoma State vs. TCU, FS1
Noon: Ohio State vs. Michigan State, ESPN
Oklahoma State will win the Big XII if it wins out. Road games against TCU and Oklahoma are really hard – the Sooners have been on fire lately and the Horned Frogs have gotten rather unlucky in one-score games – but if the Cowboys win out, they’ll have a resume boasting eight wins to close the season, a conference title, and two losses in a year where a two-loss team may make the Playoff. Does that get them in? I have no idea, but that’s a solid resume to bring to the table.
Admittedly, Ohio State should wax Michigan State, which isn’t going to a bowl game this year unless we get APR score crazy. But still, the Spartans are going to fight for four quarters, and while they likely won’t win, it’s possible they keep this one interesting. Aside: the Buckeyes have won each of their last two games 62-3, so if anyone raises a fuss over why they will make the Playoff even if they don’t win the Big Ten, well, that’s why. Hot take, but it will be impressive if they win a third-straight game 62-3.
Dog Day Afternoon
FRONT AND CENTER
3:30 p.m.: Washington State vs. Colorado, FOX
Oh boy, this is going to be worth all of your time. Colorado has been the single best story in the sport this year – it was expected to be a solid team, but Mike McIntyre has worked some kind of magic to turn this into a squad with a shot at making the Playoff, somehow. If McIntyre isn’t the national coach of the year, something is wrong. Washington State, meanwhile, has been on fire since starting the year 0-2, mostly because Luke Falk is fantastic and the team is actually running the football and playing a little defense.
I have a gut feeling this game is going to be completely insane. Mike Leach being heavily involved helps with this, but both of these teams are really good and there are serious Pac-12 title game implications on the line. Neither team can really afford a loss (USC and Washington are looming in each division), so expect to see two teams that can play going all-out for 60 minutes.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
3:30 p.m.: Buffalo vs. Western Michigan, ESPNU
College GameDay probably should have gone to Morgantown this week, but you know what? Heading to Kalamazoo to highlight one of the best stories in college football is just as cool.
Western Michigan is the only college football team in America that isn’t Alabama with an unblemished record. The Broncos are especially great through the air – Zach Terrell has thrown 23 touchdowns and one interception this year, Corey Davis is one of the best receivers in America. Buffalo is the second-worst team in America per S&P+, so the Broncos should roll, but still! Make sure you check P.J. Fleck’s boat rowers before they (potentially) end up in a New Year’s Six game.
Under the Lights
FRONT AND CENTER
8:00 p.m.: Oklahoma vs. West Virginia, ABC
I cannot stress enough how ready I am for this game. Oklahoma looks like a Playoff team. West Virginia is one win against Oklahoma away from having the resume of a Playoff team. One of these teams will probably end up winning the Big XII (although Oklahoma State is looming). It’s going to be a night game in Morgantown, which should rule, because Morgantown is awesome and a night game in front of Mountaineers fans sounds like a crazy time.
The team that wins this game is going to skyrocket in this week’s Playoff ranking, I suspect, so expect both sides to come out fired up. West Virginia’s defense has been surprisingly really good this year – it is 27th in defensive passing S&P+ and 32nd in defensive rushing S&P+ (it is also 37th in overall defensive S&P+). Of course, it hasn’t faced anything like Oklahoma, which has maybe the best offense in America behind Baker Mayfield, an awesome stable of running backs, and a wide receiver in Dede Westbrook who can’t be called “explosive” because that would be selling him extremely short.
On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma’s defense has been, well, not great, while West Virginia’s offense has been pretty good (not on the same level as Oklahoma, but still, pretty good). Watch as the Sooners’ linebacker trio of Jordan Evans, Emmanuel Beal, and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo try to cause havoc against the Mountaineers’ offense which has a solid trio of running backs, some really good wide receivers (Shelton Gibson is the big play threat to watch), and a quarterback in Skyler Howard who is good at getting the job done.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
7:00 p.m.: Arkansas vs. Mississippi State, ESPNU
8:00 p.m.: Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt, SEC Network
You should really watch Oklahoma and West Virginia throw hands for four quarters, but these should both be solid games to flip between during commercials and what not. Arkansas against Mississippi State has the potential for craziness that exists in every Arkansas night game. Plus the Bulldogs’ passing defense isn’t especially great (113 in defensive passing S&P+), while the Razorbacks’ rushing defense isn’t all that good (117 in defensive rushing S&P+). This is good, because the strength of Arkansas’ offense is its passing game (19th in offensive passing S&P+) and the strength of Mississippi State’s offense is its rushing game (ninth in offensive rushing S&P+).
Ole Miss should probably beat Vandy, but a freshman quarterback going against a Commodores side that is awesome at making games ugly should be fun. That freshman quarterback, Shea Patterson, played really well in his first start, a road win over Texas A&M last week. On the other side, Vandy has the aforementioned Zach Cunningham, a linebacker who is just outstanding and somehow manages to make every big play for Derek Mason’s team. He may go to the NFL after this year, so please, enjoy watching him tackle everyone and everything.
The Late Show
FRONT AND CENTER
10:30 p.m.: USC at UCLA, ESPN
Bill Connelly of SB Nation wrote something this week about how few (if any) teams are playing as well as USC right now. The Trojans got off to a 1-3 start against a really brutal schedule, but since October, the team is undefeated and has wins over Colorado and Washington. As Connelly said, the Trojans are a really good example of why an eight-team playoff could be so fun: it could give room for the committee to pick one of the “hottest” teams in the country.
Sam Darnold has been magic since he took over the starting QB job, both because he’s awesome and that seemed to light a fire under everyone and make the entire Trojans team, like, 30 percent better at everything. UCLA’s season has been a total disaster – the Bruins are 4-6 after starting the year ranked 16th in the preseason AP Poll – and there’s a chance that the Josh Rosen-less squad can play spoiler at home for USC, but with how the Trojans have been playing lately, that would be a shock.
Then again, with how crazy this season has been, I suppose anything is possible.
SECOND SCREEN SPECIAL
Nothing, really
There are a few other games on – New Mexico vs. Colorado State, Arizona vs. Oregon State, and Air Force vs. San Jose State – but none of them are especially great. So if you want, watch one of those, but I recommend getting a good night’s sleep. Or just watching USC. USC is fun.
