The past two weeks of college football have not gone great for me. It hasn’t been a complete disaster, but another 4-5 week has dropped me below .500 for the season. It’s still early in the season so it’s not time to panic, but instead we’re getting back to basics in Week 6.
Week 5: 4-5
Season: 20-21
This week we’re returning to what we know, which is Unders and underdogs in six of the eight plays on this week’s board. This week is another strange weekend in a college football season that I feel like every team is on some kind of roller coaster ride (outside of Tuscaloosa) and I’m hoping things settle in a bit on Saturday.
Penn State at Northwestern (+13.5)
This is purely a trend play. The ‘Cats have not looked good this year and I fear Clayton Thorson has returned to being a very mediocre quarterback. However, in their last seven games as a double-digit underdog Northwestern is 7-0 ATS and 5-2 outright. Penn State has only been on the road once this season and damn near lost to Iowa in that game. I’ll take the ‘Cats at home, but I have a feeling this will be a sweat.
Temple (-2) at ECU
Until it fails to produce a result, we’re gonna continue fading East Carolina. The Pirates defense flat out falls apart in the second half and while this Owls team is nothing like last year’s squad, I do think they’re the better team and can win this by a field goal or more. Don’t be surprised if ECU holds a lead at the half, but as we’ve seen all season, they just don’t have the depth to play for four quarters.
Wake Forest (+21.5) at Clemson
Wake is catching three touchdowns and a hook at Clemson, which normally you wouldn’t bat an eye at, but considering how Wake’s looked this season, I have to think they can keep this thing relatively close. The Tigers have expended a lot of energy against Auburn, Louisville, and Virginia Tech in some statement games this season and I think this and the Syracuse game next week are their chances to coast into a couple of wins and maybe take the foot off of the gas a bit. At least, I’m hoping so. Wake’s been very solid this season and almost upset the ‘Noles a week ago, so I’ll ride with the Deacs to keep this thing close enough to avoid getting completely blown out.
Michigan State (+10.5) at Michigan
Sparty covers in this rivalry. That’s all you need to know here. The Wolverines’ offense with John O’Korn isn’t going to be significantly better and it’s supposed to be a sloppy, rainy day in Ann Arbor. I’ll happily take the candy with Michigan State in a rivalry game that always produces close games.
SMU (+7) at Houston
SMU is good. I firmly believe this. They’ve thumped a solid G5 team this year in Arkansas State and hung around with TCU for three quarters, which is looking better and better as the Frogs have looked very good. Houston, conversely, has not been especially impressive en route to a 3-1 record. I love that this line has gotten back to a full touchdown, Houston’s only win by more than a touchdown was against Rice and Ed Oliver, the Cougars’ best player, has a banged up knee. Give me the ‘Stangs and the candy.
Georgia at Vanderbilt OVER 40.5
The Vanderbilt defense apparently can’t stop the run, based off of the last two weeks, which doesn’t bode well with the Dawgs coming to Nashville. There’s a possibility of a Georgia letdown after that massive win over Tennessee, but I think this is just a really good Georgia team. The fear is Vanderbilt not scoring, but considering they gave up 38 to Florida it’s not out of the question for Georgia to be in the high-30s or 40s themselves.
Missouri at Kentucky UNDER 60.5
Missouri’s offense is awful. So is their defense, but the offense has been especially disappointing. Kentucky can play pretty solid defense and the ‘Cats offense isn’t exactly powerful. This number is five points too high at least, so I love this Under. I’d call this my lock of the week.
Miami at Florida State UNDER 46.5
I don’t like the spread on this game at all, but I do like both of these defenses. The Miami defense has looked really good, that Toledo game as a weird exception, and the Florida State offensive line is a disaster. I also think this is a gut check game for the ‘Noles and that super talented defense finally shows up. This game will be close and overtime is the thing that scares me most about this total, but I think we’re in the 20-17 range for a final score and come in comfortably on the Under.
