Hello, friends. We’re back for Week 8 of a college football season that we simply can’t seem to get way ahead on. If you’ve been following my picks loyally then you’ve slowly bled a little bit of the vig to your local book, but I promise I’m working overtime this week to get us a little bit of a bankroll.
Last Week: 4-5
Season: 29-29
I’d like to give an extra special shoutout to New Mexico State for coming through in the clutch last week by kicking down the front door against Georgia Southern with two minutes to play to avoid an abject disaster of a week. Salute to the Aggies, we all love you.
Now, it’s time to get down to business on Week 8 which is a slate full of games I generally dislike on the spread, but I found plenty of Under plays that tickle my fancy. Let’s get to some winners.
Syracuse (+17) at Miami (FL)
I get the fear here of this being a letdown spot for the Orange, but this line has gotten too high for me not to take the candy here. Syracuse has played teams tough all season and did the damn thing on the field against Clemson last week in a stunner on Friday. Miami meanwhile avoided a letdown performance of their own against Georgia Tech with a last second field goal to win by one. The Canes have, in general, not been incredibly impressive offensively this season and I am especially concerned about their offensive explosiveness without Mark Walton. I think Miami wins and they might do so comfortably, but I do think the Orange keep it to a two-score game.
BYU at East Carolina (+5.5) and UNDER 58
Coordinated parlays have gone horribly for me this season. I’m aware of this. I also have only given out two, both being Vanderbilt who I am now finally ready to admit is not even a decent football team. So, it’s fitting that I hand out a coordinated parlay with one of the worst teams in football and a team that I have personally made a principle out of fading each and every week to great success. Sometimes, you ride with the gut and the gut says this week the Pirates defend Dowdy-Ficken Stadium in Greenville. If ECU is going to cover it’s because BYU’s offense looks as bad as it has all season. BYU and the Under has been another principle play and in a battle of principles that’s the one I feel most comfortable with. This could go horribly wrong, but we mitigate the damages and maximize the profits by pairing these together.
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan UNDER 51.5
I will not be deterred from the Eastern Michigan Under play that easily. Brogan Roback let me down last week by slinging the pill around the yard on Army, but I look for the Broncos to come in and help settle things down again in Ypsilanti. Army is a weird opponent because of the option, so I’m hoping the Eagles defense return to the form they’ve had all season against conventional offenses. Western’s been solid but not nearly the explosive squad we remember from the P.J. Fleck era, so I like this to cruise Under.
Purdue at Rutgers UNDER 48
After a scorching hot start to the season it seems as though teams have started to figure out how to slow up Jeff Brohm’s offense at Purdue. The Boilermakers have come in Under the total in three of their last four games thanks to some solid defense and their offense coming back to Earth. Rutgers, meanwhile, got into a track meet with Illinois last week that concerns me a bit, but I don’t see them putting together back-to-back offensive performances like that because while Purdue might not be world beaters, they’re certainly not Illinois levels of bad. We’re back on Rutgers and the Under, for at least one more week.
Boston College at Virginia UNDER 46.5
The Cavaliers have very quietly snuck out to a 5-1 start this season in the ACC and are doing so behind a rather nasty defense. Boston College comes into this one riding very high after upsetting Louisville but I think the Eagles are in for a rude surprise when facing a much, much more talented defense in Virginia than the Cardinals have. I’m not sure the Eagles crack 14 points in this one, so I’ll happily take the Under.
Michigan at Penn State UNDER 44
I’m not sure there was a number low enough for me to not be on this one. Michigan’s defense is filthy. The offense is a complete disaster with John O’Korn starting. Penn State’s defense is very good, and their offensive line has some swiss cheese tendencies. I’m well aware of Saquon Barkley’s brilliance and ability to break big plays, but this Nittany Lions’ front struggled mightily with Northwestern a week ago, which doesn’t bode well for taking on Maurice Hurst and Rashan Gary. I want some real Big Ten football here. Give me a 17-13 final in about three hours of real time.
Pittsburgh at Duke UNDER 49.5
Duke and the Under have been a match made in heaven this season. The Blue Devils’ offense is steady and their defense can get nasty. Pitt comes in having been all over the place with totals this season, but in a game where I’m confident Duke is the better team, I like them to dictate pace and keep this thing comfortably Under.
