Who To Start, Sit, And Scoop Up For Your Week 16 Fantasy Football Playoffs Lineup

Here we are, Week 16. Four months ago, we were so full of life. So bright-eyed with dreams of fantasy trophies in our minds. Most of us have been eliminated, and unless you’re playing daily fantasy, it’s either the participants of the championship game and the third place game reading this now. I congratulate you. You’re a winner, not a loser. Perhaps you’re the Martellus Bennett of your league?

Start of the Week

Bilal Powell: Matt Forte played with a torn meniscus, but Powell got 27 touches and made them count with the type of gusto we’ve wanted out of him for years. Another performance like this should be what we see in @eek 16 against the Patriots. Gameflow typically eliminates rushing against the Patriots, but Bilal Powell has been the receiving back all season long for the Jets. He saw a whopping 12 targets (catching 11 for 78 yards) against Miami as they played catch up, and unless something weird happens, you should see that type of performance against Billy Belichick and his pal Tommy.

Start/Sit

QUARTERBACK STARTS

Cam Newton: At this point, we need to just need to accept that he’ll be unpredictable, but Cam Newton is going to take advantage of good matchups. Few are better than Atlanta. The Panthers will be at home, and a somewhat revitalized Carolina offense will look to avenge their 48-33 Week 3 loss. Look at those points: 48-33. It should be high-scoring like that again. This week’s theme will be redemption, and Cam could redeem himself after a terrible fantasy season after being named the 2015 MVP.

https://twitter.com/CSNRedskins/status/810980884241412096

Philip Rivers: Cleveland has given up the 2nd-most points this season to QBs. Yes, they’ve gotten better, but in the last month they were still handing out points to opposing QBs like they’re trying to go 0-16. Now they host the Chargers, who are in the perfect position to screw up history and lose to the Browns in the final seconds of the game, but Rivers will likely get points as he does it. He’s been down the last few weeks, but Gates is chasing the all-time TE TD record. They have nothing else to live for at this time, so I envision a Feed Antonio day. Think about that — Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez right next to each other in the record books and the Hall of Fame. Hey, Tony!

Blake Bortles: One for the daily fantasy players: Tennessee is giving up the 5th-most points to opposing QBs and Blake Bortles is only $5,000 on Draft Kings. Ryan Fitzpatrick costs $5,000. Tony Romo costs $5,100! NFL quarterbacks that are not playing cost more than Blake Bortles right now. Interim Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone says he’s sticking with Bortles, so roll him out. After all of this, Bortles is still a top 14 fantasy QB on the season. He’s got more points than Manning, Dalton, Russell Wilson. We should respect his mediocrity.

QUARTERBACK SITS

Andy Dalton: The Texans are giving up the 7th-least amount of points to opposing QBs this season, and the game is primetime on Saturday night. Furthermore, Woody Harrelson cursed the Bengals. Unless you can tell me how to deflect the mysticism of Woody Harrelson in the comment section, I don’t believe you can deflect the dark powers of Woody Harrelson. Those facts should be enough, but Dalton is also one of the worst prime time QBs in football.

Tom Brady: Yeah, if I had Tom Brady I wouldn’t play him this week. There’s a chance Blount rushes in for 3 TDs and Brady is on the bench by the third quarter. He could also put up 40 points then leave the game in the third quarter, but what if? What if Brady heads to the sidelines without putting up a ton of points?

https://twitter.com/NeutralJing/status/663452487739940864

Marcus Mariota: The Jaguars have remained a top 10 defense against opposing QBs, and Marcus Mariota is currently in the worst slump of his season. He hasn’t thrown a TD in 2 weeks, he’s struggled to even get to double-digit points in the last two weeks (against Denver and KC). Now he’s traveling to Jacksonville. He did well against them in Week 8, putting up 277 yards and 2 TDs, but there’s the whole Team Playing Hard After Coach Gets Fired thing that I wouldn’t want to deal with. Chances are, you have another QB to play if you’re considering Mariota, consider considering someone else.

WIDE RECEIVER STARTS

Golden Tate: Dude was written off after the first few weeks after absurd usage by the Lions, now he’s seen 34 targets over the last three weeks and couldn’t be playing better. He’s making plays, racking up the YAC, and Detroit is going to be forced to throw when Dallas takes advantage of Darius Slay being out for Detroit. Get him on the field and enjoy. Can you believe he was on the chopping block just a few months ago? Redemption!

Chris Hogan: This one is strictly for the DFS players. Gameflow and the Patriots bye week could put Hogan in a spot where he’s getting a bunch of playing time against a weak Jets passing D. He’s only $4,200 on Draft Kings. These are the nice plays that’ll allow you to get you LeSean McCoy and Jordan Howard in your lineup.

The guy seems to make economic sense in more ways than one (not actually NE Patriot Chris Hogan):

https://twitter.com/ChrisHogan360/status/807284431304192000

Oh, while we’re here, let’s talk about the best movie of 2016, which has the best film score of 2016:

Tyler Lockett: Maybe he could go off again, but it’s too scary, too risky for week 16, right? No. Stand up in defiance of a cruel fantasy god that has held Tyler Lockett from us for the better part of what was supposed to be his breakout season. Trending up with a team-high 8 targets against the Rams in week 15, Lockett racked up 130 yards and a score. He’s dependent on the big play, but the speedy guy finally seems healthy, and the Cardinals are susceptible to a dink and dunk slot receiver with speed. What’s even better — Lockette was opposite Baldwin as the starter in 2 receiver sets. He’s getting the snaps, he’s getting the work.

Mmmm.

WIDE RECEIVER SITS

John Brown/Larry Fitzgerald: Michael Floyd is gone, Carson Palmer wants to play next season, and the Cardinals will probably have to throw against Seattle. The table is set for someone to have a good game in a Cardinals uniform, but the only person that’ll be is David Johnson. This is the third season in a row that we’ve seen Larry Fitz fade towards the end of the year, and John Brown isn’t trustworthy with J.J. Nelson seeing 11 targets in Week 15. Fitz is still serviceable as a flex in PPR leagues (he caught 7 balls for 57 yards last week) and he’ll keep chipping away in short yardage scenarios, but if you have someone better, use them instead.

Demaryius Thomas: One of the most dependable receivers in the league even with Trevor Siemian under center should only be played in PPR leagues. Even if you get a point per reception, you should consider benching him against a Kansas City defense that held him to 5 catches for 60 yards in Week 12. His targets have gone up in recent, softer matchups, but if you have better options (Michael Thomas/Lockett/Alshon/any Chargers receiver), consider them. He’s still worth a flex, but going against Kansas City in Kansas City is worrying.

How about the guy from Workaholics being a Broncos ball boy though?

https://twitter.com/justRVB/status/810630701833920512

Terrelle Pryor: The great experiment is over. It was fun while it lasted.

Oh, also:

RUNNING BACK STARTS

Spencer Ware: You rush and dump off passes to gain yards against Denver. We know that now. And so, Spencer Ware shouldn’t be ignored. It looks like he’s worn out a bit since he came back from a concussion mid-season, but he’s virtually locked-in for 20 touches and could have a good game against Denver who has struggled to defend backs like Ware in the latter half of the season. Denver isn’t horrible, but don’t be afraid of them. Roll out Ware with confidence, especially in PPR leagues.

Mark Ingram: There’s an unscientific method that suggests putting players who just blew up on their coaches for not getting goal line work into your lineup the next week. “The squeaky wheel gets the fantasy points” is how the old adage goes, I think. Either way, the universe owes Mark Ingram a touchdown in Week 16. So does Sean Peyton.

Todd Gurley: We’ve seen enough of a sample size to realize that Todd Gurley simply isn’t great. Maybe it’s the Rams O-line, maybe it was Jeff Fisher, maybe it was a combination of Gurley, Fisher and the O-line that sort of created a mediocre stew. The result is getting the 2016 Trent Richardson Sadness award, but there’s a juicy matchup against the 49ers in Week 16, and maybe Gurley can make something happen. The 49ers are giving up an average of 26.43 points against opposing RBs, and unless the Rams come out completely uninspired (even more than usual), Gurley has to rack up some of those points. Think about it — Gurley delivering a Xmas miracle. Slow motion fist pumps. Finger guns. Smiles.

This will be you.

RUNNING BACK SITS

All Patriots RBs?: Alright, so Dion Lewis got a career-high 18 carries against the weak Denver run defense (and 2 catches). You want 20 touches for your RB, but the Patriots have clinched a bye, and you never know what you’re going to get out of the backfield. The Jets have a solid, if unspectacular run defense, and there’s this whole three-headed RB thing to deal with. It sucks, and the last thing you want in your championship week is to get Belichick’d:

Ryan Mathews: If you made it this far, you probably did so without Ryan Mathews, so don’t get fancy and play him off a hot week in which he got 20 carries for 128 yards and a TD against Baltimore. Check out this unpredictable usage:

Kenneth Dixon/Terrance West: The changing of the guard was supposed to come by now. All signs pointed to it, but Dixon couldn’t do enough to take the job fully from Terrance West. Last week, Dixon played 60 percent of the snaps on offense, this week it was 26 percent, and this:

Kyle Jusczyk, you’re breaking my heart.

TIGHT END STARTS

Hunter Henry/Antonio Gates: Cleveland gives up the most points in the league to opposing tight ends, so this is a no-brainer. Expect their snap counts to go up and expect the points to roll in.

Greg Olsen: When Cam Newton isn’t getting hit in the head illegally, he’s throwing passes to Greg Olsen. He caught 6 for 85 against Washington Monday night, and now he faces Atlanta who is an even worse defense. He’s only caught 3 TDs on the year, and hasn’t caught one in six weeks, so I’m going full law of averages and guessing he nabs at least one in this bitter, bitter divisional game.

Eric Ebron: Dallas ranks in the bottom-6 in points given up to opposing tight ends, and Ebron just racked up 7 targets in Week 15. This should be a high-scoring game, and Detroit will be in comeback mode as the game ends so Ebron could be scoring for the first time since Week 1. I believe. I believe…

TIGHT END SITS

Martellus Bennett: The other Bennett brother only had 4 balls thrown his way against Denver. That could be because of the defense he faced, but he’s only topped 4 targets once in the last five weeks. With a volume that low, it’s not worth playing him. The Jets have a crap secondary but they’re top 3 against the TE over the last month, and it’s clear the Patriots were trying to get Edelman and James White (who accounted for 64.5 percent of their targets) out in space against Denver. Rolling the dice on Bennett right now isn’t worth it unless you must play him.

Jimmy Graham: He faces Arizona, a top-2 TE defense that held him to 5 catches for 53 yards on 10 targets when they met in Week 7. It’s the championship week, so if he’s your only option, play him, but he was a waiver wire guy and was outside of the top ten when drafting began this year, so if you’re lucky enough to have an Eifert or Antonio Gates waiting in the wings, play them.

https://twitter.com/ChatSports/status/809602535786881024

Waiver Wire

CHI WR Alshon Jeffery: It seems like a bunch of his owners dropped him after his 4-game suspension came down and Jay Cutler took the reins of the Chicago offense, now he’s available in nearly 20 percent of all leagues. Matt Barkley is a thing, and Jeffery is a stud when he’s on the field. If you’re playing for a trophy right now, you have to get him in your lineup. Spend all of your FAAB on him. There is no time left.

CHI WR Cameron Meredith/Deonte Thompson: Green Bay doesn’t have the best pass defense, and that’s why it became such a Matt Barkley Throwdown™, but there’s something to their 23 combined targets. Thompson likely won’t repeat his performance, but he’s worth stashing in case something happens to Jeffery during the week (history tends to repeat itself). Meredith, however, is locked and loaded as a potential WR2 against Washington (they don’t have a great pass D either). Meredith has had 21 targets in his last two weeks alone. “Begun, the Matt Barkley era has.” – Yoda, probably.

SD WR Dontrelle Inman: Rivers threw the ball his way 8 times on Sunday, good for a 27.6 percent target share. Now he faces the Browns who have been especially bad against No. 2 receivers. This is reaching for a pun, but No. 2’s are not “number two” against the Browns. Get it? Poop? Alright. Either way, Inman is only owned in 36 percent of Yahoo leagues, and

CIN WR Brandon LaFell: Stop sleeping on this perfectly capable WR3/Flex.

And that’s it. The season is over. Let’s go out with a song and reflect on our seasons. Maybe we won, maybe we lost, but no matter what, we should be happy that our finger isn’t bent the wrong way.