More than half of the 2017 NFL season is in the books and, in this space, things have gone quite well. We’ve had our share of bad beats (including the ghastly Julio Jones drop in Charlotte costing us a win just a week ago) but hitting winners at a 58 percent clip over nine weeks in the NFL is nothing to sneeze at and that is where we are at the moment. Still, it is never wise to rest on one’s laurels and we have no plans to do that when dissecting totals on a weekly basis.
Before we get to this week’s slate, let’s check in on the specifics to this point.
- Last Week: 3-2
- Season: 26-19
Come get these winners.
Seahawks and Cardinals UNDER 20 points in the first half
Last week’s Thursday night full-game total did not go well for those of you on the Under, but there is a reason we take first halves on occasion. We’ll go back to that well this week with a Seahawks defense that should be in a foul mood after a loss. The impetus of this selection is really that I’m not sure Arizona has the ability to generate anything approaching coherent offense in this spot, but Seattle should take a minute to ramp things up and allow us to cash a ticket by halftime.
Saints and Bills UNDER 23.5 points in the first half
I don’t think the public has quite realized that New Orleans has changed this season. Yes, the Saints are fully capable of scoring in bunches and it is terrifying to have the Under side against them. It is, however, an improved Saints defense that we’re backing to keep the clamps on Tyrod Taylor and company. Throw in a feisty Bills defense and we’ll see if we can get to the window in back-to-back weeks in fading New Orleans.
Texans and Rams UNDER 46.5 points
Houston probably knows that they won’t be winning any more shootouts this season, simply because of the existence of Tom Savage. That should aid in Bill O’Brien’s game plan slowing down considerably and I think this total is a shade high as a result. In fairness, this is probably my least favorite selection of the week but it is still an investment worth examining, especially if you can get the best number.
Giants and 49ers UNDER 42.5 points
New York has combined for 24 points over the past two weeks and that provides some comfort. The Giants did allow 51 (!) a week ago to Los Angeles but this 49ers offense isn’t quite ready to put up a showing like that and the Giants likely learned their lesson to some degree. This could be a battle between Orleans Darkwa and Carlos Hyde. We’re banking on it.
Dolphins and Panthers UNDER 20 points in the first half
The Under side on Monday Night Football has been perilous this season but that is much more accurate from a full-game perspective. The bad beats have been flowing all year in the final seconds but taking the first half lessens that possibility. Moreover, Miami and Carolina are two defense-first teams with sputtering offenses at times and the public always likes to bet the Over in prime time. That is a combination we can (and will) get behind on a regular basis and that is the case here.
