The stretch run of the 2017 NFL season is here and we kicked it off with a winning foray in Week 13. In some ways, handicapping becomes more difficult in the late portion of the season, as a few teams have packed it in for the winter while others are especially motivated with playoff goals on the horizon. Still, our methods remain unchanged in fading the public at every turn and, considering our lone loss last week came with an Over selection, that will spell the end of any attempt to root for points in bunches this season. Lastly, it is beginning to look a lot like Christmas in the form of cold weather and, well, that means even more picks on the Under.
Before the picks arrive for Week 14, let’s check in on the season-long output.
- Last Week: 3-1-1
- Season: 36-28-1
Come get these winners.
Saints and Falcons UNDER 25.5 points in the first half
Thursday night Unders have been up and down this season but we’re targeting this one specifically. Both of these teams are known for their offenses and it is easy to see why. With that said, the Saints have been uncharacteristically feisty on defense this season and, in recent weeks, Atlanta’s defense has flashed the upside that it displayed on the way to the Super Bowl a season ago. This feels like a spot when the two offenses will be feeling each other out in the early moments and, with a lot of public attention, this line is a point or two high. Sometimes, that’s all you need to pull the trigger.
Bears and Bengals UNDER 19.5 points in the first half
If you don’t have to watch this game, you shouldn’t. Just hope for the sadness that we project and plenty of punts and field goals.
Packers and Browns UNDER 40.5 points
The Packers have enjoyed some mild success in a world without Aaron Rodgers and, if they win this week, Green Bay has a real playoff chance with their signal-caller set to return. However, the offense has not exactly been spectacular and, quietly, the Browns aren’t the dumpster fire on defense that you would expect. Where Cleveland is bad, though, is on offense (31st in DVOA) and Green Bay should be able to hold them in check on the way to a narrow, ugly win for us.
Eagles and Rams UNDER 24 points in the first half
This was going to be the full game total until it got pounded by sharp money and they saw the same thing I’m seeing. Both of these offenses are impressive but I actually like both teams on defense more than their counterparts right now. Also, this is another spot where the number is just too high and I can see the Rams grinding things out with Todd Gurley over and over again. Let’s get to the window with a not so comfortable 13-10 halftime score.
Patriots and Dolphins UNDER 47.5 points
This total opened at 48.5 and has been bet down by the smart guys. If anything, I would advise you to wait until Monday to fire on this number, simply because the public will see Tom Brady in prime time and think “this has to be the Over!” as they always do. The play centers on New England’s defense and its steady play recently. That in combination with Miami’s offensive ineptitude paves the way for success.
