There are only two teams that are undefeated headed into week three of the NFL season. Last year’s Super Bowl losers, the Atlanta Falcons, have looked as good as ever in amassing their 3-0 record and showing the world that there is no Super Bowl hangover for them, at least not yet. The Kansas City Chiefs have also been impressive with two road wins and they look like they have one of the most explosive offenses in the league thanks to young stars Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are five teams that are sitting at 0-3 and it’s fair to say they are in must-win situations this week if they have any playoff hopes. Those teams are the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns (the two Ohio teams play each other this week), Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. Of those teams, the Giants surprise me the most since they were a playoff team last year, but their offensive line issues are causing a big problem that they may not be able to fix this year.
Last Week’s Results:
6-10 Straight Up (26-21 Season)
3-13 Point Spread (18-29 Season)
Brutal week. I got destroyed after having a good Week 2. That’s the NFL. One week you think you know something and the next week when you feel like you have momentum you get humbled quickly. Hoping for a bounce back this week!
Note: The point spreads I use come from VegasInsider. All times listed are in the Eastern Time zone.
Chicago (1-2) @ Green Bay (2-1) -7 [8:25pm THU]
I think the most incredible stat of week three was that the Bears beat the Steelers last week 23-17 in overtime and they completed just one pass to a Wide Receiver all game that was good for nine yards. Their QB Mike Glennon completed 15 passes for 101 yards with 12 catches from their RBs. Note to teams playing the Bears: Their RBs are good! Cover them! I think the Packers will know how to defend the Bears well and I expect Aaron Rodgers to have a pretty good day at home.
The Pick: Green Bay 27-13
New Orleans (1-2) -2.5 vs. Miami (1-1) [9:30am SUN in London, England]
It’s the second week in a row with a game in England. I thought Miami was pretty good offensively and then they laid six points on the road against the lowly Jets. The Saints probably have the worst defense in the NFL, so the Dolphins should be able to move the ball fairly well. I think it has the potential to be a high scoring game too. I’ll go with the Saints just because I trust Drew Brees more than Jay Cutler.
The Pick: New Orleans 30-27
Carolina (2-1) @ New England (2-1) -9 [1:00pm SUN]
I’m always going to pick the Patriots at home. They rarely lose there and there’s nothing the Panthers have done to really make me want to pick them. I was surprised the Pats only won by three last week at home against the Texans, but clearly, they have defensive issues. The problem is I don’t think Panthers QB Cam Newton is fully healthy despite starting all three games and he’s not connecting well with his receivers. I’ll go with the Patriots at home and QB Tom Brady should have another big day spreading the ball to his weapons.
The Pick: New England 27-16
Los Angeles Rams (2-1) @ Dallas (2-1) -6.5 [1:00pm SUN]
The Rams are the highest scoring team in the league at 35.7 points per game. I’m a lifelong Rams fan for over 30 years and I’ll be honest with you when I say I didn’t see this coming. I figured QB Jared Goff would be better with new players around him, but not this good this fast. With that said, part of it is who they have played because two of the wins are against bottom five teams like the Colts and Niners. It’s a much tougher test going to Dallas to face the Cowboys.
While I want to pick the Rams to win, my mind says the Cowboys should have a lot of success running the ball because the Rams run defense has been poor. That’s a strength of the Cowboys, so I’m expecting a big day for RB Ezekiel Elliott. Once the Rams over-commit to the run, that’s when QB Dak Prescott will make some big plays. I think the Rams cover the spread, but I’m going with the Cowboys to win even though I want to be wrong with that.
The Pick: Dallas 27-23
Detroit (2-1) @ Minnesota (2-1) -2.5 [1:00pm SUN]
There’s no line as of this writing because of Sam Bradford’s shoulder injury, so I’m using the number from my CBS Sports pick ‘em league.
The Vikings have looked very impressive at home with a 2-0 record. Backup QB Case Keenum looked great last week while finding WR Stefon Diggs for a big game. I really like RB Dalvin Cook a lot too. The Lions have been productive as well and have played well defensively. The issue with the Lions is their run game is inconstant. I’m going Vikings because I like the balance on offense and their aggressive defense should lead to them winning their third game at home. The Pick: Minnesota 24-20
Tennessee (2-1) -1.5 @ Houston (1-2) [1:00pm SUN]
I’ve been impressed by Texans rookie QB Deshaun Watson. They didn’t win last week against the Patriots, but they sure put an impressive fight that gives their fans reasons to be optimistic. I like how Watson has targeted WR DeAndre Hopkins so much as well. I think the Texans defense will have a good day and they’ll win a close game at home because it’s a big divisional matchup that the Texans will be ready for.
The Pick: Houston 20-17
Jacksonville (2-1) -3.5 @ New York Jets (1-2) [1:00pm SUN]
It’s going to be tough for me to pick the Jets to win any game this year. To their credit, the Jets shut down the Dolphins at home last week and dominated that game. The Jags also dominated last week with a surprising 44-7 victory over the Ravens with four TD passes from their usually inept QB Blake Bortles. Going with the Jags to win because their defense is impressive and I like rookie RB Leonard Fournette a lot.
The Pick: Jacksonville 17-13
Cincinnati (0-3) -3 @ Cleveland (0-3) [1:00pm SUN]
Two winless teams from Ohio that are on their way to having meaningless seasons. At least the Bengals showed some heart last week in a three-point overtime loss to the Packers. I’ll roll with the Bengals on the road because I think WR AJ Green is going to have a monster game and the Browns are just hurting in terms of not having enough talent on their team. It’s as simple as that. The Pick: Cincinnati 27-17
Pittsburgh (2-1) -3 @ Baltimore (2-1) [1:00pm SUN]
Good luck figuring these teams out. The Ravens had two dominant wins to start the year and then got destroyed by the lowly Jags. The Steelers lost to the Bears last week, who are probably a bottom five team. These teams seem to have close games a lot. Give me the Steelers by a point, so the Ravens cover at home.
The Pick: Pittsburgh 24-23
Buffalo (2-1) @ Atlanta (3-0) -8 [1:00pm SUN]
Give the Bills credit for starting the year at 2-1. I think they are hurting severely in terms of their WR group, but QB Tyrod Taylor has played well and the defense is also doing a good job. The problem with this game is the Falcons offense is incredible especially at home. I don’t see this being a close game.
The Pick: Atlanta 34-13
New York Giants (0-3) @ Tampa Bay (1-1) -3 [4:05pm SUN]
It’s hard to pick the Giants because they are a winless team with major issues like having no run game and the worst offensive line in the league. At least the Giants showed some heart in nearly beating the Eagles last week. I’m tempted to go with the upset because of how desperate the Giants might be, but my head says go with the Bucs because they have the better team that should dominate at the line of scrimmage with that defense.
The Pick: Tampa Bay 28-23
Philadelphia (2-1) @ Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) -1.5 [4:05pm SUN]
The Chargers are the second most surprising 0-3 team after the Giants. I thought they’d be a lot better than this. Eagles QB Carson Wentz has impressed me a lot with his ability to find different receivers and mainly focusing on TE Zach Ertz, who has had a great start to the year. I’ve been burned picking the Chargers a few times this year. I’m going to believe in them one more time since they know it’s a must-win game and I think their offense will finally wake up. Just kidding. I can’t trust them right now, so it’s an Eagles road win.
The Pick: Philadelphia 33-30
San Francisco (0-3) @ Arizona (1-2) -7 [4:05pm SUN]
It’s obvious that the Cardinals offense is struggling at times without star RB David Johnson. They’ve become too reliant on the pass, so teams know how to defend them even though WR Larry Fitzgerald is still producing. Lucky for the Cards, the Niners defense is pretty and I think the Cardinals defense should be able to force some turnovers leading to some scores. This feels like a blowout home win.
The Pick: Arizona 37-20
Oakland (2-1) @ Denver (2-1) -2.5 [4:25pm SUN]
Home field advantage matters a lot for a team like the Broncos. It’s a tough place to play, so while I believe in the Raiders offense a lot, I feel like the Broncos pass defense is going to slow them down. Look at how poorly the Raiders offense did against Washington, who isn’t close to as good defensively as the Broncos. There are clearly some issues with the Raiders. I think the Broncos will key on stopping WR Michael Crabtree and I don’t expect much success for WR Amari Cooper either. Plus, I’m impressed by Broncos QB Trevor Siemian. I think he can have a big day here. Consider me a Bronco believer, at least at home.
The Pick: Denver 31-23
Indianapolis (1-2) @ Seattle (1-2) -13 [8:30pm SUN]
That’s a big spread for a 1-2 team like the Seahawks, but the oddsmakers believe in them bouncing back in a huge way at home and so do I. The Colts can beat a team like the Browns at the home. However, it’s a different story trying to do it in Seattle in primetime. Big win for the Seahawks with QB Russell Wilson having a 3 TD game.
The Pick: Seattle 27-6
Washington (2-1) @ Kansas City (3-0) -7 [8:30pm SUN]
Give me the Chiefs at home. I believe in them and think they are a top-five team this year especially with explosive rookie RB Kareem Hunt and WR Tyreek Hill finding ways to make big plays every week. Washington’s offense looked very effective last week in their destruction of the Raiders, but it’s going to be a lot tougher to do that in Kansas City. The Chiefs should keep it going here.
The Pick: Kansas City 30-20
My Fave Five Bets Of The Week
The bad news continued in my fave five. After going 4-1 in week two and thinking I could get on a roll, I’m sad to say I went 0-5 last week. Here’s hoping that never happens again!
Last week: 0-5 (Season 6-9)
Here are my five favorite bets for this week.
@ Green Bay -7 Chicago
Indianapolis @ Seattle UNDER 41.5
@ Arizona – 7 San Francisco
@ Tampa Bay – 3 NY Giants
Jacksonville @ NY Jets UNDER 39.5
That’s all for this week. I’ll be back for more next week. Enjoy the games.
