Things went south with haste in Week 3 but we showed a great deal of resolve to battle back late. The Thursday night game saw one team exceed the full game total on its own and, on Sunday morning, the Jacksonville Jaguars resembled the “Greatest Show On Turf” behind Blake Bortles. Fear not, though, as order was restored late and a functional, 2-3 performance became the end result. We are certainly not deterred by fluky outcomes and, before getting to this week’s (very) interesting slate of Over/Unders, here is where we are for the season.
- Last Week: 2-3
- Season: 9-6
Now, let’s get things started in London again and, given how the Jaguars-Ravens game went, prayers are appreciated.
Saints and Dolphins UNDER 24.5 points in the first half
New Orleans looked (much) better on defense a week ago in knocking off Carolina and that brings me a little bit of optimism. More than that, though, this is a spot in which I’m fading the Miami offense that we saw fall on its face against the hapless Jets.
Games involving the Saints scream “Over” to casual handicappers, simply because they are high-powered on one side and quite poor on the other. This time, though, we want to fade the public by going the other way and taking the first half number (in place of the full game) is something of a fail-safe in case things get weird in the fourth quarter. Throw in the London factor with weird travel and banking on a slow start is the move.
Steelers and Ravens UNDER 42 points
I’m not sure they could make this number low enough. Pittsburgh’s offense is inexplicably scuffling right now and there is even some unrest in the locker room to boot. On the flip side, the Ravens just don’t have much firepower in terms of scoring behind a struggling Joe Flacco and the history in this series lends itself to quite a bit of defense and very little explosiveness.
It should be noted that Vegas did try to make this number manageable because, if there was ever a “public” Under, this might be it. Still, I’m envisioning a 20-13 type of game and that falls safely under the posted total. Normally, I would advocate for waiting as long as possible to let the casual folks bang the Over but, in this spot, find a number and take it.
Rams and Cowboys UNDER 47.5 points
Everyone loves the Rams offense at this point and it is easy to see why. We gave out the Under in the Rams/Niners game last Thursday and, well, that didn’t go according to plan. The Cowboys have been (at least reasonably) strong on defense at times, though, and that sets the stage here.
The vast majority of the public is already on the Over in the game and the line moved through a key spot at 47 as a result. I am not at all afraid of that line movement, though, as the Under is the right side in this spot. Look for a full dose of Ezekiel Elliott and a Rams offense that won’t be able to move the ball quite as well against Dallas as they did against San Francisco.
Bengals and Browns UNDER 41.5 points
At first blush, I wanted to stay away from this game and perhaps that will come back to bite me. However, it is just too enticing.
The Browns are a “fun bad” team right now with DeShone Kizer making some plays and some legitimate talent on the offensive line. With that said, Cincinnati’s defense is more than capable of shutting Cleveland down (as we saw in the first half against Green Bay a week ago) and, on the flip side, I really don’t trust the Bengals offense. This smacks of a divisional showdown that could be very ugly and we encourage that in this space.
Washington and Kansas City UNDER 49.5 points
Washington was sneaky good on defense in their (dominant) win over Oakland a week ago but this is certainly another test. Kansas City isn’t a conventionally terrifying offense in that it isn’t Alex Smith winging the ball around the yard (save for Week 1) but the Chiefs have been extremely efficient and rookie running back Kareem Hunt looks to be quite a dynamic player.
On Monday night, though, even the most amateur handicappers get involved and the vast majority of them end up taking the Over. We can’t allow that to seep into our thinking and a general rule of thumb in this space will be to ride with punts and field goals in this kind of spot. Oh, did I mention that fading Kirk Cousins and his abilities as a quarterback is something of a mandate for me? Let’s ride.
Best of luck, everyone.
