Things have gone pretty well in this space during the 2017 NFL season and we’ll get to that in a moment. Our motto has been to fade the public with a lot of Under picks and, in truth, it is working to the tune of a 60 percent clip. However, Week 6 was maddening and, despite a reasonable 2-3 performance, it is hard to avoid discussing what might have been.
The most heartbreaking defeat came when Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian uncorked a 43-yard pick-6 to Janoris Jenkins with less than a minute remaining in the first half on Sunday evening. While that play did wonders for the Giants on the way to an upset win, it also broke our spirits with a first-half Under by exactly 0.5 points and, well, the full game Under would have been victorious. Sigh.
While we could also discuss the hapless Cleveland Browns throwing a meaningless touchdown pass with 63 seconds remaining to go Over the total (no sodium here), let’s just get to the records for both the week and the season.
- Last Week: 2-3
- Season: 18-12
Time to right ship and get back to our winning ways with these five Under selections.
Titans and Browns UNDER 46.5 points
Cleveland played a part in a sub-par record a week ago but we’re going back to the well. The Titans aren’t great on defense but, with Marcus Mariota hobbling around, Tennessee is leaning more heavily on the running game. More than anything, this is a play against the Browns offense sustaining success and the number feels high to me. Trust the process.
Ravens and Vikings UNDER 39.5 points
Two strong defenses face off in the 1:00 pm ET window and, even with a (very) low total, the Under is the only side. The Vikings are 4-2 to the Under on the season and, against Joe Flacco, Minnesota has every reason to take the air out of the ball and grind it out with full knowledge that their defense can take care of business. The public hates a number this low but we aren’t scared away. Punts and field goals all day.
Saints and Packers UNDER 24 points in the first half
Picking the Under on a Saints game is always perilous but, sneakily, New Orleans is putting a functional defense on the field right now. The Saints rank 15th in defensive DVOA and, against a Packers team with Brett Hundley at the helm, there is no reason to think that Sean Payton’s team can’t continue to have at least mild success. We’ll take the first half number here as a more “true” outcome because, well, things can get very weird when New Orleans is involved. Still, this feels like the right side and the public will probably see “Saints vs. Packers” and run to the Over.
Bengals and Steelers UNDER 41.5 points
Pittsburgh continues to be (much) better on defense than on offense, which is bizarre in a world in which they deploy Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger on a weekly basis. The Steelers are putting out a quality unit defensively, though, and this has all the makings of a bloodbath between two division rivals. Did I mention that the Bengals have the No. 3 defense in the NFL right now? Keep it Under.
Seahawks and Giants UNDER 40 points
The Giants did a strong job in knocking off the Broncos in prime time last week but it wasn’t as if the offense was suddenly firing on all cylinders. If anything, Seattle now has seen this “new-look” group (sans Odell Beckham Jr.) on tape over a full game and the Seahawks enjoyed a bye week to prepare for this one. In short, it would be a surprise if New York sustained anything consistent through the air in this game and it is probably safe to assume that the Giants know they must shorten the game and increase variance to have a chance in this spot. On the Seattle end, the offense hasn’t exploded just yet and, against a competent Giants defense, this feels like a 23-10 type of game. That works for us in this spot.
