2017 was a terrible year for earthquakes. But, if you pay attention to the headlines, 2018 will be much worse, with nearly double the major earthquakes, defined as a 7 or higher on the Richter scale, as the last few years. The headlines treat it as a certainty, but is it? Not quite, even though there’s compelling evidence behind it.
- Why 2018? Because the Earth is slowing down. Not noticeably, mind you; just a millisecond. But these slowdowns are correlated with some pretty nasty upticks in major earthquakes, according to geologists Rebecca Bendick and Roger Bilham.
- How does it work? Well, therein lies the whole problem. Bendick and Bilham, unlike newspaper headline editors, have been extremely cautious about what they’re saying. Specifically, they’ve noted that when the Earth’s rotation has slowed like this, based on the earthquakes we have data on since 1900, there have been more major earthquakes. The unfolding is like clockwork; the rotation slows and five years later, there’s an uptick in major earthquakes around the equator. It’s a bit like an extremely slow-motion pile-up.
- Is this certain? Again, Bendick and Bilham are emphasizing they’ve got a small data set to work with, relative to the billions of years of geological history the Earth has experienced. This could be a statistical blip in that history. At the same time, if their prediction holds up, that’s a valuable tool, and even if it is a blip we’re in the middle of, that’s still a heck of a blip. Earthquake-prone areas can definitely use a five-year warning, and for now, the best approach is to take this as folk wisdom, like red skies at night for sailors.
- But more earthquakes in 2018 aren’t a done deal. Nobody should panic, not least because even if there are more earthquakes, nobody responsible is insisting a serious earthquake will strike this city on this date in 2018. If you live or are traveling near the equator next year, you should just do what any traveler or resident in a possible earthquake zone should do: Be familiar with proper safety procedures, have an emergency locator beacon, and know basic first aid.
So, take this the way the scientists intend it: An intriguing set of data points that merit more study, not a cue to panic. A level head is your best safety tool in any situation.