5 Players Who Will Rise/Fall in 2011-12 Fantasy Basketball

Those of us who can remember the early ’90s know how on-top-of-the-world Mariah Carey used to be. The Music Box version of Mariah was young, beautiful and supremely talented. Then somewhere along the way Tommy Mottola, Glitter, “MTV Cribs” and Nick Cannon happened. A more recent example of a fallen diva is, of course, Christina Aguilera, whose career arc can be summarized as “Genie in a Bottle,” “Dirrty,” Burlesque and “The Star-Spangled Banner.” Today, Mariah and Christina are replaced by the likes of Adele, Taylor Swift, Katy Perry and Ke$ha.

The moral of this brief tale is that, like it or not, the future won’t look the same as the present. For fantasy basketball owners, this means they should always be thinking about who the next rising and falling stars will be. Below are two lists: 1) five players who should see their stocks climb in next season’s drafts, and 2) five players who should see their stocks drop.

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Rising

Amir Johnson: He was tagged as a sleeper by many fantasy owners heading into last season and actually exceeded expectations, thanks to the opportunity Reggie Evans‘ broken foot opened for the young big man. While the PF position was a bit crowded in Toronto last season with Johnson, Evans, Ed Davis and even James Johnson vying for minutes there, the good news is that this Evans’ contract with the Raptors expired after 2010-11. Assuming the Raptors don’t go out and sign another power forward in the offseason, Johnson should have plenty of room to develop into being a player who can potentially chip in 12 points, eight rebounds and nearly two blocks a game on a steady basis. His solid shooting from the field and the free-throw line also helps his value. If he can avoid foul trouble and fend off Davis from stealing too many of his minutes, Johnson will be a very desirable fantasy player to own. (Projected draft position: 75-85)

Chase Budinger: When Shane Battier was dealt from the Houston Rockets in February, fantasy fans of Budinger everywhere smiled. We knew what this meant: Our favorite NBA ginger was about to unleash his awesome talent on the league. From his averages as a starter in the last two seasons, we know Budinger can produce around 15-18 points, 4-5 rebounds, 2-4 assists and a pair of threes per game, along with strong shooting percentages. He’s no longer a viable name to write on sleeper lists – Budinger is now a reliable fantasy player who offers help in just about every category and will be just 23 years old when the 2011-12 season starts. (Projected draft position: 70-80)

Marcin Gortat: Now that he’s with the Phoenix Suns and freed from the shadow of Dwight Howard, The Polish Hammer is finally getting an opportunity to prove that the $34 million contract he signed with the Magic back in the summer of 2009 wasn’t exorbitant after all. He thrived in a Suns uniform this past season despite coming off the bench. Gortat is a reliable scorer, rebounder and shot-blocker, and has strong shooting percentages to boot. Even if he remains a sixth man for the Suns, Gortat has done plenty to convince fantasy owners that he’s a big man to remember on draft day. (Projected draft position: 65-75)

Ryan Anderson: He was supposed to be a throw-in in the deal that brought Vince Carter to the Magic back in the summer of 2009. Less than two years later, Anderson has emerged as the most valuable player in that trade from a fantasy perspective. While he struggled with bouts of inconsistency in 2010-11, Anderson hit his stride in January, when he averaged 14.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, three three-pointers and 0.9 blocks in just 25 minutes of action per game. He’ll be 23 years old when the 2011-12 season starts, and with 25+ minutes seemingly his for the taking, Anderson shouldn’t be sneaking up on anyone this fall. (Projected draft position: 75-85)

Kyle Lowry: Making the jump from being a solid fill-in to a reliable fantasy stud isn’t easy – just ask Darren Collison. It was a bit tough to trust Lowry for much of this past season, mostly because the ghost of Aaron Brooks loomed. But when Brooks was exorcised away from the Rockets in late February, Lowry was finally freed and didn’t disappoint. If all remains steady in Houston, the young point guard has a serious shot at being a top 15 pick in drafts this coming fall. Unbridled optimism is a dangerous game, but if the Rockets’ backcourt remains relatively unchanged in 2011-12, the sky’s the limit for Lowry. (Projected draft position: 25-35)

Falling

Kevin Garnett: It was a good season to be named “Kevin.” Garnett blew past even the most optimistic expectations in 2011-11 by averaging first-round numbers. This might tempt some owners to write him into the top two rounds of next season’s draft-day cheat sheets, but that would be a big mistake. The name of the game here is simple enough: Garnett, who will be 35 years old when next season begins, is playing with a body that has tons of miles on it, and he’s got fresh blood in Jeff Green to relieve him of some playing time in 2011-12. Unless nut shots and belligerent on-court behavior become fantasy categories, owners should knock KG down a few notches as they project player values for next season. (Projected draft position: 30-40)

Kobe Bryant: As with Garnett, Kobe suffers from the unfortunate syndrome called “aging.” In 2010-11, he played the fewest minutes per game since he got 26 minutes of run per game in his sophomore campaign all the way back in 1997-98. Kobe’s declining physical state isn’t news to anyone, so that’s not the focus here. The warning is to not let No. 24’s name get in the way of how you assess his fantasy potential next season. It may seems like blasphemy to knock him out of the first round of fantasy draft rankings but to put things in perspective, consider that Bryant put up top 30 averages this past season, a far cry from his average top six pick position in most drafts last fall. This is the new reality for Bryant and his fantasy appeal – something that might be a tough pill to swallow for owners who admire the stud in real life. (Projected draft position: 35-45)

Danny Granger: It was a bit strange to see Granger drop well into the second round of many drafts last fall, but the reasons were understandable: he was a walking DNP whose love for the area of the offensive end of the court behind the three-point line was dragging down his field-goal percentage. The hope was that he would attempt fewer threes this season to prop up his accuracy from the field and make him a more efficient fantasy player. The bad news is that while he shaved off nearly two three-point attempts per game in 2010-11, his field-goal percentage still managed to drop to a career-low mark. Granger’s points, assists, steals and turnovers also went the wrong way last season from his marks in 2009-10. He’ll be a ripe 28 years old when next season starts, and while a turnaround campaign in 2011-12 is possible, fantasy owners shouldn’t hold their collective breath. (Projected draft position: 30-40)

Carlos Boozer: His first season with the Chicago Bulls was a forgettable one from a fantasy basketball standpoint. The realities of his vulnerable health and playing alongside Joakim Noah were too much to overcome. While he’s still a good source of points, rebounds and a strong field-goal percentage, it appears that Boozer’s fantasy appeal is very limited now. He’s perennially been considered a top 40 fantasy player heading into the past several seasons, but it’s time for owners to wise up. (Projected draft position: 65-75)

Andrea Bargnani: Many fantasy owners had high hopes for Bargnani heading into last season. He was, after all, supposed to be the new focal point for the Raptors’ depleted, Bosh-less offense, and one of the very few viable big men on that squad. It appeared that fantasy stardom was his for the taking, which explains why he was taken in the third round of most drafts last fall. Sadly, Bargnani managed to find a way to miss the mark. He bumped up his scoring, assists, steals and free-throw percentage from his averages in 2009-10, but his field-goal percentage, threes made, rebounds, blocks and turnovers all went the wrong way last season. He’s young enough for owners to maintain hope that he’ll still tap into some remnant of potential, but it’s looking more and more like Bargnani’s first name betrays more than we expected. With some young Raptors emerging with serious appeal last season, the once-wide window of opportunity for Bargnani looks a lot less tempting now. (Projected draft position: 65-75)

Throughout the offseason, feel free to leave your questions, comments, concerns, trade offers, roster problems and more in the comments below.

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