The Pelicans lost again on Wednesday and that was enough to push them down to 14th in the West, only ahead of the lowly Suns in the standings. They’re only four games back of the playoffs, but that hasn’t stopped the concerns from piling up. The majority of those concerns are about the future of Anthony Davis, and how a poor showing this year could push him out.
The Pelicans big man is fully expected to receive an offer for a supermax contract extension this summer. If Davis turns that deal down then many believe that will be the unofficial start to his free agency and New Orleans will be forced to explore trades
The supermax is the best offer New Orleans has right now. The roster isn’t championship caliber and right now even the playoffs aren’t a guarantee. It’s hard to keep a star around in those kinds of conditions. Of course, Davis has yet to even hint at what kind of decision he might make in the future. Trade demand? Free agency? Actually taking the supermax? Nobody knows. Zach Lowe of ESPN says many teams expect Davis to pass on the supermax contract, but that does not mean Davis plans to lock in long term elsewhere.
“Davis’ representatives surely know how close they can get to supermax money by cycling through short-term deals until Davis locks in the largest long-term contract — a strategy interested teams expect Davis to follow, sources say.”
For those unfamiliar with this contract strategy, look at the contract structure LeBron James and Kevin Durant have taken over the last few years prior to James inking a four-year deal in L.A. Under the current CBA, the max salary for a player like Davis, currently in his seventh NBA season, with a team that isn’t the Pelicans is 30 percent of the salary cap. When he hits 10 years of service in the NBA, that jumps to 35 percent. With a potentially rising salary cap and that jump in percentage once he hits the 10-year mark, Davis is likely to make even more money by waiting it out on short-term max deals for a year or two than if he were to just take the first max deal thrown his way.
That contract structure makes the Pelicans life difficult. If Davis agrees to the short-term contract plan with them then they’re just going to be in a constant state of pressure to compete, because he can go get that kind of contract from almost anybody he chooses to. So it’s in their best interest to convince Davis to take the supermax extension, but that also means becoming a perennial contender in a very short time frame. That might be impossible.
So what do the Pelicans do if Davis does pass on the supermax extension? Well, they can go down with the ship and hope that they’ve built enough of something by the time his contract ends that he agrees to take short-term deals with them, or they can trade him. The trade option is tough for a small market like this. You don’t just trade away a once in a generation talent, but you also don’t want to lose him for nothing. There’s no right decision here, because there are plenty of risks with any approach they take. That’s not something the Pelicans want, but they may have to accept it.
