Can Kyle Korver Break Out Of His Slump In Time For The Atlanta Hawks?

On Wednesday night, the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers kick off the Eastern Conference Finals. It promises to be a fascinating series, with multiple storylines to follow — Horford/Millsap vs. Mozgov/Tristan/Lebron, whose bench can contribute more, etc. — but perhaps the one with the most potential to swing the series is the performance of Hawks sharpshooter Kyle Korver. More specifically, why has it fallen off so dramatically in the playoffs so far, and will it continue into the Conference Finals?

Possibly the most insane stat of the NBA Playoffs so far is that Josh Smith is outshooting Korver from three-point range, 37 percent to 35 percent. Just to be clear, Korver is coming off the ninth-best regular season in NBA history in that category at 49 percent. Josh Smith is not. Korver’s dropoff in these playoffs has been staggering, and it’s a slight surprise the Hawks have advanced twice despite his struggles. Sure, they benefited from playing the Brooklyn Nets in the first round and having John Wall break his hand and wrist against them in the second, but still.

So is Korver’s downturn due to teams preparing better and playing harder to neutralize him? Is he in a slump he could break out of, or is something wrong on a deeper level? The first part is definitely true — according to Synergy sports, Korver’s catch-and-shoot attempts from behind the arc are being contested 79 percent of the time in the playoffs, as opposed to 60 percent in the regular season. But that doesn’t tell the whole story since everyone plays stauncher defense after April.

In the regular season, Korver shot 49.3 percent on contested three-pointers, which is close to inhuman. In the playoffs, that number has plummeted to 30 percent. To put that into context, Korver was in the 98th percentile for converting contested threes in the regular season, and he’s down to the 38th percentile in the playoffs. He’s cratered from an assassin to a below-average shooter when bothered. Not all contests are the same, and you can bet the Wizards and Nets closed out harder in the playoffs than they would have in November, but even accounting for that, his shot chart is baffling.

korver playoffs shot chart

Just for laughs, and because it makes me sad, here’s Korver’s shot chart from the regular season:

korver reg season shotchart

How in Ray Allen’s name can Korver be shooting 26 percent from the corners? Is it a run of bad luck, or a mechanical problem? Let’s take another look to see. These are every one of his shot attempts from his two most recent outings, Games 5 and 6 of the series against the Wizards (in reverse chronological order and with grainy video, but bear with me):

The last shot of the video was actually Korver’s first shot of Game 5, the last three he’s hit. It was one of the most off-balance attempts of all 12, and it’s the only one he made. From the tape, I can’t see any evidence of a mechanical issue. He’s leaning to one side or another on a couple, short-arming a couple of others, or just clanging one when he’s pretty set. It’s a shooter’s horrorshow, because there’s no easy correction to point at. It seems like he’s just gone cold.

Equally distressing is that many of those shots weren’t contested all that hard. There was a blocked attempt in there, but the majority of Korver’s releases were fairly clean. Synergy knows more than I do about these things, but the tape doesn’t support the theory that he’s being bothered more often, unless the effect has been cumulative and he’s lost confidence. If that were true, though, Korver might show more hesitation or a hitch in his release, or something, but there’s no common thread between those misses.

Depending on how you look at it, Atlanta was either fortunate to be facing a limping Wizards team while Korver struggled, or they proved that they don’t need Korver to be hitting to win games. Given that Atlanta averaged 88 points between Games 5 and 6, I’m inclined to believe the former is more likely. The Cavs aren’t quite as stout defensively as the Wizards, but they’re also lightyears better offensively. Putting in 88 points a game won’t come anywhere close to cutting it. So can they survive if Korver’s cold streak continues?

It may not seem like it, but Korver is more than a shooter for the Hawks. Even at 34 (Can you believe he’s 34?), he’s got the quickness to stay with Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith on the perimeter, the two Cavaliers he’ll guard the most. He’s got good height to contest their shots, and while he isn’t the strongest player, he’s not a willow either, and he’s well-schooled in Mike Budenholzer’s defensive system. This is all to say that he’ll be far from a defensive liability against the Cavs, so Bud will continue to play him even if he doesn’t improve his shooting. Of course, there’s another reason for that.

For all our talk of his struggles, Korver has still knocked down 10 of the 15 threes he’s attempted while open, according to Synergy. The Cavaliers will still have to account for him at all times, and that will draw his man out of the lane and free up space for Jeff Teague and/or Dennis Schroder to penetrate and make plays. So if the Cavs get lazy (as they sometimes do), Korver has still been every bit as automatic when given time and space to shoot.

Even though I have no basis to do so, I’m still going to predict that Korver turns it around before the Hawks-Cavs series is over. His history of accuracy is too long for us to put a fork in him based on 12 games. He’s a career 37 percent three-point shooter in the playoffs, and that’s accounting for this year and his first two postseason appearances with the Sixers, when he averaged below 30 percent. He should be fine.

Of course, he should have been fine this whole time. There’s still cause for concern with Korver (or is it Kause for Koncern?), but the Hawks will just have to cross their fingers that he starts finding the net again.

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