The NBA’s Western Conference is still absolutely loaded. Perhaps the two-best teams in the league are here, the conference as a whole boasts a ton of depth, and a handful of teams that missed the postseason last year should be better. Also: LeBron James is here now. With all of this in mind, the penultimate version of our season preview roundtable took a look at the West. One day until the season starts, friends.
Previous 2018-19 NBA preview roundtables:
Individual award winners
Eastern Conference preview
Who wins the Western Conference?
Jeff Siegel: It’s boring, but of course, it’s still Golden State. They’re the best team and got better by adding DeMarcus Cousins in the offseason. Even if he’s a zero after the achilles injury, they still have the core of the same team that’s won the last two titles. Plus, the other top contenders got ever-so-slightly worse.
Robby Kalland: The Warriors. … Oh you want a reason? *gestures towards their roster*
Chris Barnewall: The Warriors. I refuse to explain my stance.
Brad Rowland: The Rockets! … Just kidding, the Warriors.
Nekias Duncan: The friends we made along the way. (The Warriors, because duh.)
Mike Zavagno: The Monstar…err…Warriors.
Jamie Cooper: The Warriors. Houston had their best shot last spring until fate intervened, and then they regressed a bit this offseason. It just goes to show how small the championship window is these days. Unless they can pull an ace from their sleeve and steal Jimmy Butler, it won’t be particularly close.
Raj Prashad: The Warriors because they’re really really ridiculously good.
Bill DiFilippo: As Benjamin Franklin once said, “in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death, taxes, and the Warriors winning the Western Conference because they have four of the 20-best basketball players alive, a number that expands to five of the 20-best basketball players alive if DeMarcus Cousins can bounce back.” Or something.
Who is the best team outside of the conference champions?
Siegel: Houston’s the obvious choice here, but there’s enough reasons to be worried about their defense to make me want to pick the Utah Jazz. Utah’s going to be rock solid defensively again this year and can put together enough offense to get it done most nights. Utah’s potential matchup with Houston in the conference semifinals is going to be fascinating on both sides of the ball.
Kalland: It’s still the Rockets. I have concerns about their roster shakeup and what it will do to what was a very good defense, but I also have concerns that the Jazz don’t really have a lot more ceiling to explore and will be what they were last year. That’s still really good, but…
Barnewall: The Rockets weren’t a fluke last year and nobody did much to prove they can challenge them. The Thunder could maybe give them a run if everything clicks, but this is Houston’s spot to lose.
Rowland: I’m tempted to take the Jazz and there are more scenarios in which Utah finishes at No. 2 than some would like to believe. Still, the Rockets are the right answer. Their upside is just higher.
Duncan: I’m actually higher on the Thunder than most, but surgeries for Russell Westbrook and Andre Roberson have made me a little uneasy. This is, officially, Houston’s spot to lose. Quick shoutout to James Ennis, who has looked more than capable of filling the Trevor Ariza role.
Zavagno: In the regular season, I would say the Jazz. But when it comes down to it, I think the Rockets present a tremendously difficult matchup for Utah in the Playoffs. The ISO Bros (Harden and Paul) can effectively limit Gobert’s impact defensively and Houston’s switch-everything defense negates some of Utah’s motion-heavy sets.
Cooper: I still think it’s Houston. The Jazz are a trendy choice, and for good reason. They have the league’s best defense and a budding superstar in Donovan Mitchell, but they’re still awfully inexperienced, despite their playoff run last spring. The James Harden and Chris Paul combo is deadly, and they’re still surrounded by shooters and defenders, despite losing Trevor Ariza and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute.
Prashad: Houston is going to be just fine here with James Harden and Chris Paul running the show. The Rockets still boast shooting for days and Clint Capela roaming the middle. Oklahoma City could push for this second spot, but I think it’s mostly wrapped up.
DiFilippo: I’m high on the Nuggets — more on them in a sec! — and think the Jazz are going to be really good, especially in the event Donovan Mitchell can indeed take a step forward while they still make teams challenge their impenetrable defense. Regardless, it’s Houston. They’re an injury or two away from this being a very interesting discussion, but between their talent and how much they value home-court, they’re going to be the best non-Warriors team. They may even have the best record in the conference again.
What team is going to be the biggest surprise?
Siegel: The Los Angeles Clippers aren’t being talked about as true contenders for a mid-tier seed, but they’re as deep as anybody in the conference and have enough solid players across every position to play in lots of different ways. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander already looks like a steal at No. 11 in the draft and will give them a much-needed punch from the point guard spot.
Barnewall: I’m gonna regret this, but I think this is finally the year the Nuggets get it together, especially when we look at everything happening in Minnesota right now. They almost made the playoffs last year. They can do it this time.
Rowland: This might be cheating but would it be a surprise if the Jazz won 55 games? After only 48 a season ago, Utah is ready to take the next step and, given that the West is so heavily dissected on a daily basis, it is tough to find real “surprise” candidates now.
Duncan: The Pelicans are really flying under the radar. Adding Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton (he’s going to push the ball), getting Solomon Hill back into the fold (finally, Jrue might not have to guard wings!), and a full year of Nikola Mirotic are all positive developments. Also, Anthony Davis is the third best player in basketball. This team should be gooooood.
Zavagno: I’m all in on the Nuggets finishing second in oRTG this year behind Golden State. Jamal Murray is primed to take The Leap and Nikola Jokic pushed their ceiling higher when he took full control of the offense down the stretch last year. Add in a year of (hopefully) healthy Paul Millsap to quarterback the defense and I think Denver is in a great spot this year.
Cooper: Aside from the Spurs, who’ll likely plummet in the standings, the pecking order is still roughly the same. The first and second tier teams are still the Warriors, Rockets, Jazz, Thunder, and Blazers, with the Pelicans, Nuggets, Wolves, and now the Lakers hovering around the bubble. So I’m going with the Mavs as the team who’ll be better than we think, in no small measure because they have one of the NBA’s most promising young backcourts in Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr. The playoffs are a long shot, but don’t be surprised to see them at least working their way into the hunt next season.
Prashad: If everyone can get healthy, I really love the upside of the Nuggets. If ever Isaiah Thomas was going to recover and take a team to another level, it would be this one. Add in a potentially recovered Michael Porter, a healthy Paul Millsap and Denver could be a serious threat out of the West.
DiFilippo: I love this Nuggets team so much. That offense is so good that the fact that they might philosophically be opposed to defense isn’t a concern in my mind. They’ll get into a ton of shootouts, but I’m a big believer in Nikola Jokic being a star, Paul Millsap being a star, and Jamal Murray — as alluded to by a few of my colleagues — taking a major step forward. They missed the playoffs by one game last year despite Millsap being sidelined for nearly half the season. That’s not happening again.
What team is going to be the biggest disappointment?
Siegel: After losing Dejounte Murray to a torn ACL, the San Antonio Spurs are left with basically nobody who can adequately defend at the point of attack. They’ll cobble together enough offense with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, but after losing Murray, Danny Green, and Kyle Anderson from last year’s team, the Spurs are very much in danger of missing out on the postseason.
Barnewall: Portland will be fine in the sense that the Trail Blazers aren’t going to miss the playoffs or anything like that, but I don’t see how they improve upon last year. If anything they regress. At what point do we expect more of them?
Rowland: The Spurs might be the real answer unless Gregg Popovich can work a miracle. I’ll say the Phoenix Suns, though, as many believe they’ll take the next step after a few “win now” acquisitions. Let’s just say that I don’t see that as a likelihood.
Duncan: How has nobody said the Lakers? Have you seen their center rotation? Have you seen the offenses in the West? I think the Jimmy Butler situation and the Spurs getting hit with the bubonic plague have killed the “Lakers may miss the playoffs” take, but I don’t see a top-five seed for this team. No disrespect meant to LeBron, but even for him this is a lot.
Zavagno: I will take it one step further than Jeff and say that the San Antonio Spurs miss the playoffs for the first time in 22 seasons. I was already skeptical of their on-ball creation before the Murray injury and the landscape grows more bleak following the news. Add in the notion that smart teams may find a way to exploit the new lottery odds in a one-year downswing and I think the floor is quite low for the Spurs.
Cooper: If we’re interpreting this as the team most likely to under-deliver relative to expectations, that disqualifies teams like the Spurs, who’ve suffered devastating losses, and the Lakers, whose whole MO has been to try and calm everyone down since LeBron arrived. So I’m going with the Thunder again. It was an imperfect union last season between Russ, PG, and Melo, and we could see more of the same this time around even with Anthony gone.
Prashad: I have too much faith in Popovich to piece some semblance of a team together and get the Spurs into the playoffs despite losing Kawhi. The only real disappointment I see in the West is the Suns, who have clearly bought into trying to win now. They won’t lose 60 games again this year, but I don’t see Phoenix making a run without a starting point guard running the show.
DiFilippo: Only fools bet against LeBron and Pop, which says a lot about me, because I keep going back and forth between the Lakers and Spurs for this. I can see scenarios where either miss the postseason, but between the two, I think it’s far more likely that San Antonio spends the postseason on the golf course the entire time. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are All-Stars, but I have major concerns about who’s going to run the point and their depth on the wing. Please don’t retire, Pop.
