The Milwaukee Bucks are stuck. After two straight early postseason exits, they are at a point where everything they do is trimmed down and analyzed through the tiniest of lenses. It’s no one person’s fault — all their playoff losses are explainable, and the core is still in its prime. Yet the waiting game with the Bucks means success is only measured by whether they can at least make the Finals.
Milwaukee has accomplished all there is in the NBA without ever once appearing in the title series during this era. The awards this team has won are nothing to scoff at — they have a two-time MVP, a two-time Coach of the Year, and three All-Star caliber players, but they have yet to grab the metaphorical brass ring. Two years ago in Mike Budenholzer’s first season as coach, they set efficiency records that put them in a class only occupied otherwise by last decade’s Golden State Warriors. Especially now that Giannis has signed a super-max extension and committed to the franchise, any regular season success will, in the eyes of many, only matter if the Bucks can record 16 postseason wins.
While they’ll play 72 games this season, each one will be looked at mostly through the lens of whether enough has changed to overcome those shortcomings. The first is whether the addition of Jrue Holiday and the development of Donte DiVincenzo gives them enough play-making to be more unpredictable on offense. DiVincenzo has increased his assist rate while turning the ball over less, and in his third season, he finally looks more like the guy who played an important role in Villanova rolling to the 2018 national championship. He’s probably never going to be a primary option offensively, but he can handle the ball in transition, and on this team, his ability to get to the rim and make threes — he is connecting on a career-best 41.2 percent of his triples — is quite valuable.
Despite playing a five-out offense, the Bucks have long been short on truly good shooters. But they’re making more threes so far, helping them start the year as the NBA’s best offense. DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, and Bobby Portis are all shooting better than 40 percent from deep, and giving Budenholzer more comfort playing small, knowing he can really spread the floor.
At the same time, Holiday has been mostly his usual self even as he acclimates to a new team. Milwaukee’s halfcourt offense is 1.6 points better per 100 possessions with Holiday on the floor and 4.3 points worse with his backup, D.J. Augustin, out there. Holiday rarely turns the ball over and most importantly gives the Bucks a ball-handler who can run a pick and roll that gives Giannis a head of steam toward the basket. As ESPN’s Zach Lowe recently noted on his podcast, citing Second Spectrum data, the Bucks seem more comfortable with using Giannis as a screener this season compared with how they used him in 2019-20, especially when opponents try to guard him with a center, as we’ve seen everyone from Boston to Toronto do in recent playoffs.
Years ago when Budenholzer deployed a five-out scheme around Antetokounmpo on offense, it turned heads for its ingenuity. It’s fairly common stuff in 2021. But with more consistent shooting and ball-handling on the roster now (as opposed to Eric Bledsoe and Wes Matthews, good players who were more limited overall), the Bucks are going back to that well with some interesting looks. Against Toronto this week, Budenholzer put out a tiny lineup with Giannis at center surrounded by Augustin, DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, and Bryn Forbes. That group has played just 15 non-garbage time possessions together this season but out-scored teams by 20 points per 100 possessions, also per Cleaning the Glass.
The second important lesson to be learned from the Bucks this year is how effectively they can downsize and mix up styles. On the note of playing smaller, after Marvin Williams retired this offseason, Milwaukee signed Portis in an effort to create a more versatile frontcourt with Giannis when Brook Lopez sits. In theory, Portis is a fine option to play smaller and defend like a modern team with more athleticism and length, but it will be on Budenholzer to change.
Portis is by no means a perfect player, but so far, the coach is not taking advantage of what Milwaukee seemingly signed Portis to do. Budenholzer still mostly refuses to switch on defense no matter who is on the floor. That means Portis ends up dropping deep into the paint as a rim protector, hardly the best use of his skill set. Unsurprisingly, the Bucks are allowing 4.5 extra points per 100 possessions when Portis plays. While he does plenty of good things, Portis is not a rim protector.
To give Bud credit, though, Giannis is switching a bit more than I remember him doing in the past, even when he’s on the floor with Lopez. It’s obvious Giannis can defend just about anyone in the NBA, so when teams are foolish enough to involve him in a pick and roll, letting him switch and use his length, strength, and agility is smart. That’s something that’s easier to do with Portis out there, since his agility means he’s better equipped to execute it than Lopez.
On the offensive side, one thing Portis can do that Lopez can’t is drive to the hoop. Using Portis as a screener is a little more unpredictable than when Lopez simply pops or posts, but too often Portis is simply a pick and pop player for the Bucks. They signed a backup very different than their starting center but are playing as if he’s a Lopez clone.
It’s a shame we’ve gotten this far without mentioning that Khris Middleton just keeps getting better. The two-time All-Star is averaging a career high in points per game at 21.6 and his assist rate has exploded to nearly 26 percent, up from just 22 last season. As we saw when the Bucks took on the Nets on MLK Day, Budenholzer is increasingly comfortable letting Middleton be the primary initiator in crunch time because of these improvements. Though Middleton missed the game-winner in that matchup, that trust from Budenholzer and his continued improvement gives hope that the Bucks can be better in close playoff games than in the past (of course, many of these same things apply to Holiday).
Perhaps the most positive sign for Milwaukee: Budenholzer, a longtime advocate of going deep into his bench and having a steadfast rotation, is at long last playing his best guys heavy minutes. Each of Giannis, Holiday, and Middleton are getting more than 33 minutes per night, after nobody in Milwaukee got more than 30 last season. Now, it is important to mention that the Bucks were blowing teams out last year and they were able to rest their primary guys in fourth quarters. Regardless, the team could have waited until the 2021 playoffs to ramp up playing time, but doing so now allows Budenholzer to get comfortable with his rotation and for the players to get used to it.
There’s a reasonable case to make that in the end, the Bucks will go as far as Giannis takes them. But he has his own problems right now (namely shooting and turnovers), and even if that’s true, Milwaukee needed to do more to maximize what he’s great at. This year’s team may not be as deep or dominant as past iterations, but they are changing in ways that should make them better when it matters.
Judging from the scrutiny Milwaukee is given after underperforming in the playoffs, it may seem like the Bucks were a long way away from a title. That’s not true. Role players are stepping up, the stars are just as good or better, and by being slightly more flexible this season and more reliant on his best players, Budenholzer should be able to put it all together and do his part to get Milwaukee closer to the finish line.
