We made it through the opening night of the NBA season without disaster befalling any of the league’s superstars, which is to say it was an improvement over last year. The Celtics cruised past Philadelphia in their opener in Boston, while the Warriors eventually put the Thunder away on ring night despite a second half rally from Oklahoma City.
As we did yesterday (and hopefully without any home/away mistakes from me this time), we’ll be looking at the lines and totals for every NBA game on the Wednesday night slate, along with relevant trends from last season (for whatever those are worth) to help you make as informed a decision as possible. First, we’ll look at what cashed last night, and then dive on in to Wednesday’s action.
10/16/18 Winners:
Boston -4.5, UNDER 210.5
Oklahoma City +13, UNDER 221.5
All lines, including opening lines set to the side to show movement, come from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and trend information is from TeamRankings.com (for now, data is from last year). Let’s begin!
Memphis Grizzlies (+7, ML +240) at Indiana Pacers (ML -300), O/U 205 (OPEN: Indiana -6.5, O/U 208)
Indiana, unsurprisingly, was among the league’s best against the spread last year, which often happens with teams that overachieve compared to expectations. The Pacers covered 59.6 percent of the time, second only to Boston, 59.1 percent of the time at home, and 71.4 percent of the time when they were a home favorite. The Grizzlies, on the flip side, covered only 45 percent of their games, 45 percent of the time on the road, and 50 percent of the time as a road dog. That, of course, was without Mike Conley for most of the year.
As you’ll notice, this total has dropped a decent amount since open, which comes as little surprise since no team in the NBA went Under more last year than the Pacers. Indiana went Under 62.1 percent of the time in 2017-18, 62.8 percent of their home games, and 59.3 percent of the time they were home favorites. Memphis came in on the Under in 52.5 percent of their games, went Over in 57.5 percent of their road games, and Over in 59.5 percent of their games as a road dog. Again, most of those without Conley.
Milwaukee Bucks (-3, ML -155) at Charlotte Hornets (ML +135), O/U 221.5 (OPEN: Milwaukee -2, O/U 217)
Both of these teams have similar rosters from last year, but new coaches so fair warning on using last year’s trends here (even more than you already should be wary with everyone). The Bucks were miserable against the spread last year, covering only 41.7 percent of the time, 29th in the league only ahead of Cleveland. They were better on the road, covering 50 percent of games outside Milwaukee, and went 10-3 ATS as a road favorite. The Hornets weren’t far ahead of Milwaukee, only covering in 43.6 percent of their games, and were just as bad at home (43.9 percent cover rate) and were awful as a home dog, going 1-9 ATS.
The Bucks went Over more than any team in the NBA a year ago, popping the total 58.4 percent of the time overall, 60 percent of the time on the road, and an incredible 76.9 percent of the time as a road favorite (hence why this total has rocketed up from open). The Hornets went Over 50.6 percent of the time (41-40-1), so you won’t find much lean there, but 55 percent of the time at home, but went under in 6 of 10 games as a home dog.
Miami Heat (-2.5, ML -140) at Orlando Magic (ML +120), O/U 209 (OPEN: Miami -2.5, O/U 210.5)
The Heat were about as average as you could be least year, going 41-40-6 ATS (six pushes were the most in the league). They were much better on the road ATS than at home, covering 58.5 percent of road games, but were only 4-5 as a road favorite. Orlando covered 46.2 percent of their games overall, and just 41.5 percent of home games, but went 14-14 ATS as a home dog.
Only Indiana had a higher Under percentage than Orlando in 2017-19, as the Magic kept it below the total 61 percent of the time, at home that percentage spikes to 63.4 and 64.3 as a home dog. Miami went Under 55.3 percent of the time overall, 54.8 percent of the time on the road, and 5 out of 9 times as a road favorite.
Brooklyn Nets (+5.5, ML +190) at Detroit Pistons (ML -240), O/U 212 (OPEN: Detroit -4.5, O/U 212)
The Nets were excellent against the spread a year ago, covering in 58 percent of their games, including a robust 70 percent cover rate on the road and 71.4 percent of the time as a road dog. Detroit was, quite literally, the most average team in the NBA ATS, going 40-40-2 last year. They covered 47.5 percent of their home games and 46.4 percent of games as a home favorite.
Both teams had the exact same 35-44-3 record on totals last season, meaning they went Under 55.7 percent of the time. Detroit was 20-20-1 at home and went Over 55.3 percent of the time as a home favorite. Brooklyn was 20-20-1 on totals on the road, and went Over 51.4 percent of the time as a road dog.
Atlanta Hawks (+3, ML +130) at New York Knicks (ML -150), O/U 215.5 (OPEN: New York -3.5, O/U 213.5)
The Hawks, despite their W/L record were fairly feisty against the spread, going 40-39-3 ATS last season, including a 20-18-3 mark on the road, covering 54 percent of the time as a road dog. New York covered in only 46.3 percent of their games, but were better at home, with a 21-20 record in the Garden and a 9-6 mark as a home favorite — although much of that success was with Kristaps Porzingis in the lineup.
The Knicks were a marginal Over team, busting the number 51.2 percent of the time, with the exact same percentage at home. However, they went Under in 10 of their 15 games as a home favorite. The Hawks held the Under in 54.3 percent of their games, and 60 percent of the time on the road (59 percent of the time as a road dog).
Cleveland Cavaliers (+13, ML +800) at Toronto Raptors (ML -1400), O/U 215 (OPEN: Toronto -11.5, O/U 214)
I’m not even sure it’s worth putting Cavs trends up here since LeBron is no longer there, but they were the worst team in the league ATS going 40-63-1 (15-8 as a road dog, though). Toronto, with DeMar DeRozan and not Kawhi Leonard, went 48-43-1 ATS (21-21-1 as a home favorite).
Despite their defense, Cleveland held the Under 52.9 percent of the time, while Toronto went Over in 51.1 percent of their games. The Cavs went Over in 12 of 23 games as a road dog and the Raptors went Under in 48.8 percent of their games as a home favorite.
New Orleans Pelicans (+8, ML +300) at Houston Rockets (ML -400), O/U 232 (OPEN: Houston -8, O/U 228.5)
New Orleans covered 57.8 percent of all of their games last season, and went 17-14 as a road dog. The Rockets covered 51 percent of their games and just 44.7 percent of the time as a home favorite.
The Pelicans went Over 56.7 percent of the time last year, the second highest percentage in the NBA, while Houston went Under in 59.8 percent of their games, the third lowest in the league. Most of the Pelicans Overs came at home, as on the road they went Under 52.2 percent of the time and 51.6 percent of the time as a road dog. Houston went under in 54.9 percent of home games and 54.2 percent o the time as a home favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5, ML +115) at San Antonio Spurs (ML -135), O/U 210.5 (OPEN: San Antonio -2.5, O/U 210.5)
No one seems quite sure what to do with this game, as noted by the lack of real movement here, going up or down by a half point on either side before returning to the opening numbers. The Spurs look very different, and don’t have a point guard, while the Wolves have, well, all their drama going on with Jimmy Butler, who will play. All that is to say, the trends might be worthless here, but here you are.
San Antonio covered 51.2 percent of their games last year, while Minnesota covered just 46.4 percent of the time. The Spurs were very good as a home favorite, going 23-12-2, while the Wolves were just 10-16 ATS as a road dog. Minnesota went Over in 55.8 percent of their games (57.7 percent in games as a road dog), compared to the Spurs staying Under in 54.6 percent of theirs (54 percent of games as a home favorite)
Utah Jazz (-8.5, ML -430) at Sacramento Kings (ML +350), O/U 205.5 (OPEN: Utah -8, O/U 208)
The Jazz were 47-46 ATS a year ago, while Sacramento was 39-40-3 ATS. Utah was 9-6 ATS as a road favorite, while the Kings went 13-18 as a home dog.
The Jazz held games Under the total 53.3 percent of the time, similar to Sacramento’s Under percentage of 53.1. Utah, surprisingly, went Over 56.5 percent of the time as a road team and 60 percent of the time as a road favorite. The Kings were 15-15-1 on totals as a home underdog.
Dallas Mavericks (PK, ML -110) at Phoenix Suns (ML -110), O/U 214.5 (OPEN: Phoenix -1, O/U 215)
This line’s been all over the place, as high as Suns -2 but has steadily dropped over the course of the day to get back to a pick ’em. Last year, Dallas covered 51.8 percent of their games, while Phoenix covered just 46.2 percent of theirs. The Suns were awful at home, however, covering just 35 percent of the time in Phoenix. Dallas was steady at home or on the road, going 21-19-1 ATS as the visitors.
Phoenix went Under in 52.5 percent of their games, and went Under in 21 of 41 games at home. Dallas held the Under in 54.3 percent of their games, and 53.7 percent of games on the road.
Denver Nuggets (-1.5, ML -120) at Los Angeles Clippers (ML +100), O/U 225.5 (OPEN: Denver PK, O/U 227)
The Nuggets covered 46.8 percent of their contests last year, but went just 6-10 ATS as a road favorite. The Clippers covered 51.8 percent of the time on the year, but were 5-8 ATS as a home dog.
Los Angeles went Over in 54.3 percent of all games a year ago, while Denver split the season going 40-40-2 on totals. Clippers went over in 7 of 13 games as a home dog, while the Nuggets went 8-8 on totals as a road favorite.
