There aren’t often title contenders that enter free agency with max cap space, and 2021 won’t be any different. There are teams that will hope to lure top stars with cap room in order to vault into that category, but the established teams won’t be in the running for the top talent on the free agent market.
Instead, what they’ll be looking at are the players that can provide them with additional playoff depth, which is an entirely different thing than regular season depth. As we see annually, rotations shrink come playoff time, but you still have to find those three or four (matchup depending) guys who you can rely on for 10-15 minutes in a playoff game that won’t see the other team go on a massive run. Finding players to fill that role is the biggest task for GMs of squads who already have established stars, and we’ve seen that play out in the 2021 Playoffs already.
The Bucks and Suns both made their biggest moves on the trade market, dealing for star point guards in Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday, but they also made important depth additions in free agency that have been vital to their Finals runs. Milwaukee went into scramble mode last year after their Bogdan Bogdanovic sign-and-trade fell apart, but taking a swing on Bobby Portis in the aftermath of that disaster as their reserve center paid major dividends all postseason. On the other side, the Suns were able to add Jae Crowder to give them much needed wing depth as their starting power forward this season.
Successfully identifying 16-game players in free agency is crucial for contenders, and this offseason provides a variety of possibilities for contenders who might not have much more than a mid-level exception to spend but still need to bolster their depth. A lot of these players will be faced with difficult decisions this offseason, as some will have to choose between maybe making more money on a non-contender, or taking a slightly smaller contract to compete for a title.
Guards
Reggie Jackson (UFA, Clippers): No one boosted their profile more this postseason than Jackson, who became the Clippers starting point guard and, by the Western Conference Finals, was pretty reliably their second-best scorer with Kawhi Leonard out. Jackson very clearly hopes to return to L.A., expressing how much that team meant to him, saying the Clippers “saved” him by embracing him, and if money is even close, one would expect him to be back in a Clipper uniform. That said, his effort in the playoffs will certainly lead to other teams calling to find out what it’d take to get him to leave L.A. as a quality scoring guard who has shown he can bring it in the playoffs is a high priority for most every contender.
Derrick Rose (UFA, Knicks): Rose was the best player for the Knicks in their first round loss to Atlanta, and while it’s very possible New York comes to him with a lucrative offer to stick around for another year or two, other contenders will be sniffing around the veteran point guard. Rose showed he can still score at a high level and, if he goes somewhere that only needs him for 15-20 minutes a night rather than 30-plus like the Knicks, he could significantly bolster a point guard rotation.
Patty Mills (UFA, Spurs): The longtime Spur is going to be a coveted veteran this offseason because of the shooting he can provide a team, and for Team Australia he continues to show his abilities as a lead guard. Just about any contender could talk themselves into Patty Mills as a helpful bench player, and he should have plenty of offers to sort through from top NBA squads desperate to get some additional scoring punch from a known commodity.
Alex Caruso (UFA, Lakers): The Lakers will likely work hard to keep Caruso, who has become integral to what they do defensively, but he should get plenty of interest elsewhere because of those defensive chops. He is a big, physical defender at the guard position who has some versatility to guard smaller wings as well, and while the shooting and playmaking remains below what you’d want from a starting point guard on a contender, he’s a really good sixth man type to have on your team.
TJ McConnell (UFA, Pacers): The Pacers didn’t have a good year overall, but TJ McConnell certainly opened some eyes with what he can bring to a backcourt as he got ample opportunity to pester opposing guards and thrived in that role for Indiana. A team like the Hawks that has no shortage of offensive weapons but could use a better point of attack defender should be fairly interested in McConnell this offseason.
Lou Williams (UFA, Hawks): Speaking of the Hawks, Lou Williams got to show that he is still a more than capable bench scorer back home in Atlanta after he was dumped by the Clippers for Rajon Rondo at the deadline. Williams thrived in Atlanta and it seems likely he’ll be back there if he wants, but others will likely at least make a call to see if he wants to bring his smooth scoring to a different bench this offseason.
Wings
Danny Green (UFA, Sixers): We know exactly what Green brings to a contender because we have been seeing him do the same thing for years. There are frustrations from fans at times because he is prone to more cold spells from three than he seemingly used to be, but the defensive IQ and the threat of his shooting still exists at all times. His absence late in that Hawks series was big for Philly and while they figure to look to bring him back, other contenders will be making overtures to try and add his championship pedigree to their rotation.
Reggie Bullock (UFA, Knicks): There are a number of Knicks on this list, and the common thread with all of them is they would be more impactful if needed in slightly smaller doses. Bullock was just about the only consistent knockdown shooter for New York in the postseason, and as such the Hawks began to lock down on him more as the series wore on and make other Knicks take shots. In a different situation, should he go looking for one, Bullock would likely take on a more reduced role but provide a more efficient impact on a contender with his shooting and solidity on the defensive end.
Will Barton (UFA, Nuggets): Barton is the type of player every team wants more of on its roster. He’s become a very good three-point shooter (38.1 percent this season), has great length as a defender, and can handle the ball as a secondary creator. He’s probably not going to be available for anything close to the mid-level, so some contenders are going to get priced out, but he’s a guy that a lot of teams will have interest in (including Denver in trying to keep him) and what he ends up getting in his next contract could be surprising to some and may not come from a contender.
Josh Hart (RFA, Pelicans): The only restricted free agent on this list, Hart seems almost assuredly to be allowed to walk by the Pelicans and his profile fits the bill of the type of wing rebounder/defender that could be helpful to a contender. The big question for Hart revolves around his shooting, and that’s going to be the skill teams are going to have to decide if they believe in or not, but his defensive versatility figures to garner some interest among playoff squads.
Carmelo Anthony (UFA, Blazers): Melo has been terrific for the Blazers on his minimum deal the last two years, but with plenty of questions in Portland about their short- and long-term future, Anthony could seek greener pastures. His willingness to take on a bench role and showing he can be an effective secondary option were things teams had questions about prior to his arrival in Portland, and he’s more than answered those. He’s become a terrific three-point shooter and would be a well-liked addition to most any locker room.
Bigs
Nic Batum (UFA, Clippers): Batum was excellent in his one season with the Clippers, particularly showing his positional versatility in the playoffs when L.A. found so much success going small. He’s become an excellent three-point shooter and is a terrific offensive connector, a willing and able passer, and is always ready with a timely cut to the basket. Defensively, he’s not as quick as he once was, but his strength keeps him from getting bullied too much when playing the four or small-ball five, and his smarts keep him from getting out of position. L.A. will surely want him back but will someone come with a bigger offer than a vet minimum to poach him away?
Blake Griffin (UFA, Nets): Speaking of guys who once looked cooked and thrived in a smaller, more defined role, it’s Blake Griffin! Griffin was terrific for the Nets after joining the squad post-buyout from Detroit, as he happily took on the challenge of simply being a very good role player. Defensively, he’s still really good at making the right read and rotation to step in front and take a charge, and on offense he’s a terrific cutter and roll threat, while being a capable spot-up shooter. His future, like Batum’s, may very well come down to whether someone was impressed enough to give him a mid-level type deal that would possibly pry him away from Brooklyn, or if things are closer to the min, he might just want to run it back with a team he knows he fits great with.
Bobby Portis (Player Option, Bucks): Portis was everything the Bucks could’ve hoped he would be and more this season, and he endeared himself to the Milwaukee faithful so much that the Bucks will have to try their best to keep him. That said, Portis showed what his ideal role looks like and it’s one that plenty of contenders could use. He’s a high energy big man who can give you quality minutes as a small-ball five in super-switching defensive lineups who runs the floor well, attacks the glass, and can knock down threes. He also showed that he can embrace a smaller role and thrive, which is almost equally important to his production. He’ll likely decline his $3.8 million player option and should, at least, see mid-level type money.
Paul Millsap (UFA, Nuggets): Millsap isn’t the All-Star he once was, but he’s still a helpful veteran presence in the frontcourt. It’ll be interesting to see what his market value is coming off a 1-year, $10 million deal in Denver. The Nuggets could certainly look to bring him back but might look to go with a higher upside frontcourt player, and if so, Millsap could find himself looking for a new home. His shooting is really the swing skill that will determine how many teams pursue him strongly, as you have to believe he can bounce back after a rough shooting season and postseason for the Nuggets to give him a full mid-level.
Nerlens Noel (UFA, Knicks): My crusade to get Nerlens Noel onto a real contender will not cease, and there are plenty of teams that should have interest in his services. He is a truly elite defender as a backup center, which plenty of teams could use. Understanding that he’s not going to bring a ton on offense is necessary for any team signing Noel, but he’s a good lob threat and capable offensive rebounder who, on a team with lots of scoring options, doesn’t take away from an offense even if he’s not providing a ton on that end. A team like the Suns, without a true backup center capable of spelling Deandre Ayton on the defensive end, should be considering a run at Noel this summer.
Kelly Olynyk (UFA, Rockets): On the other end of the big man spectrum is Kelly Olynyk, who was outrageously good for the Houston Rockets after being dealt there from Miami. Olynyk seemed out of sorts to start the season with the Heat, but he caught fire shooting the ball in Houston and reminded people of his talent on that end as a stretch big man (who also showed more facilitating chops than I think most anyone knew he had). He’s not a great defender but isn’t a significant detriment on that end, and there should be plenty of teams considering him to bring some scoring punch to their frontcourt rotation.
PJ Tucker (UFA, Bucks): Finally we have PJ Tucker, who played an important role for the Bucks in their march to a championship. Tucker’s corner three-point shooting took a step back in the playoffs (32.2 percent) and his confidence in letting open threes fly took a hit in turn, as he regularly passed up opportunities which was, at times, to the detriment of the Bucks offense as he was no longer a quality spacing threat. That said, what he lacked offensively he made up for with his seemingly ubiquitous presence on the defensive end. He is a relentless defender who is fine watching an opposing star put a big number up on him and never let that impact the effort he’s bringing, which is an underrated skillset. Tucker will simply shake off a Kevin Durant or Devin Booker putting up 40 on contested jumper after contested jumper, knowing that, eventually, the odds tend to swing in his favor. The Bucks were the beneficiaries of that, and like with Portis, will be interested in bringing Tucker back into the fold. But he will be coveted by every contender on the market, as every team can use that kind of defensive presence.
